中本聪大学

Guo Hongjie - Founder of Nakamoto University
What mindset do we have when we join the blockchain industry? What has made us believe and persist for so long? To this day, does our original intention and what we desire still exist? If we had the chance to choose again, would we still make the same choice?
As time flies to the present, the tide gradually recedes, and illusions slowly dissipate. We are gradually emerging from the revelry of yesterday's indulgence. Although we still have reluctance, confusion, and attachment, we will ultimately face reality - "What exactly is blockchain? What can blockchain do? How much value can blockchain bring? What does blockchain have to do with me?"

“Is market fluctuation like tossing a coin? Retail investors are always anxious, buying high and selling low. Teacher Li Xiaolai's monte-carlo-projection uses Monte Carlo simulation to generate 100,000 possible price paths, telling you the precise boundary of '90% probability of not losing money', turning investment from metaphysics into probability science.”
Recently, Li Xiaolai updated the monte-carlo-projection tool on GitHub, reaffirming his core philosophy of treating time as a friend—using rational systems to counter short-term fluctuations. This design is in line with his conclusion that 'regular investing changes destiny':
Historical data proves that even starting a regular investment in the S&P 500 at the 'worst time point' (such as the peak of the bull market in 2007) and sticking with it for 20 years can still achieve an annualized return of 7%+;

⚙️ I. Technological Breakthroughs: From 'Digital Gold' to 'Programmable Reserves' Underlying Reconstruction
1. Expansion Plan Evolution: Breaking the 'Impossible Triangle' Bottleneck
Thunderbolt Protocol: Increases transaction speed by 10 times through UTXO Bundling technology, introduces OP_CAT opcode to enhance smart contract functionality, laying the foundation for Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem.
BitVM Rollup Solution: Moves 99% of computation off-chain, with the main chain only verifying fraud proofs, increasing Bitcoin TPS from 7 to theoretically over 100,000 while maintaining decentralization.
Lightning Network Optimization: Adopts Schnorr signatures + MAST technology, channel capacity reaches 18,000 BTC (2025 data), micro-payment efficiency increases by 300%.

1. What is asset tokenization?
When lawyers meet Lego blocks
Professionally, the ERC-3643 protocol splits property rights into standardized digital tokens (each token corresponds to 0.0001% ownership), and binds to Hong Kong SPV legal entities for confirmation. It’s like turning an entire building into a box of Legos:
Each block represents a fixed proportion of ownership (professional term: equity fragmentation)
Blocks come with a manual ensuring the rights of the assembler (corresponding to: on-chain smart contracts + judicial jurisdiction)
The assembled model can be disassembled and resold (mapping: secondary market liquidity)
Case: 100,000 tokens split from Hong Kong W Hotel, minimum holding of 100 HKD, rent calculated automatically by the hour

What is 'Peer-to-Peer'?
Hi, friend! You might often see the term 'Peer-to-Peer' (P2P) in the news or in tech articles, but what does it actually mean? It sounds professional, but it's really not complicated at all. Today, let's break down this concept with the simplest examples.

Let's start with 'Non-Peer-to-Peer'.

Let's first look at the method you are most familiar with: bank transfers.
When you transfer 100 yuan to a friend, the money doesn’t go directly from your account to your friend's account. In fact, you are instructing the bank: 'Please transfer my 100 yuan to my friend.' After receiving the instruction, the bank deducts the money from your account, records it in its ledger, and finally adds 100 yuan to your friend's account.

Definition framework.
Inanimate objects: Static entities that do not dynamically interact with the environment (e.g., offline databases).
Living system.
: A dynamic system that receives pressure signals through continuous environmental interaction and triggers internal adaptive changes (definition derived from cybernetics and complex systems theory).
The empirical evidence that Bitcoin conforms to this definition is as follows:1. Interactivity validation: Observable coupling with the real world.The interaction between the Bitcoin system and the physical world is reflected in the following quantifiable metrics:Embedded economic system.On-chain transaction volume: Daily average value of $3 billion in transactions (2023 blockchain data).

I. History: 'Immutable facts' anchored in the physical world
1. Objective historical record of the hash chain
Timestamp blockchain: Bitcoin packages each transaction in chronological order into blocks, with each block containing the hash of the previous block, forming a cryptographic chain. Modifying any historical block requires recalculating the hashes of all subsequent blocks (which requires a 51% attack), with costs growing exponentially with the chain length.
The objectivity forged by energy: Each block's generation consumes real-world energy (PoW mechanism), making historical tampering incur quantifiable costs in the physical world (e.g., attacking Bitcoin requires consuming 1% of annual electricity usage). Historical records thus detach from subjective narratives and become an objective existence at the level of physics.

⚖️ 1. Policy Game: Fed's hawkish stance vs. White House strategic reserves
Interest rate decisions and internal divergence
The Fed maintains interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% (unchanged for the fifth consecutive time), but sees the first dual dissenting votes in 30 years (Waller and Bowman advocating a 25 basis point cut).
Powell refuses to commit to a rate cut in September, stating 'data-dependent decisions', causing market rate cut expectations to drop from 68% to below 50% (CME FedWatch data).
White House policy implementation

Treasury Bitcoin reserves: Clear use of seized assets (such as Silk Road-related BTC) as reserves, commitment to 'non-essential sales'.

😵 1. Price: Stuck at 117,000 playing heartbeats
Today's market: Bitcoin fluctuated between $116,978 and $118,800, finally stuck at $117,785 (approximately 8.56 million RMB), down 0.28% in 24 hours, equivalent to a Tesla Model 3 evaporating into thin air.
Why no movement:

Whale dump: A mysterious giant whale transferred $1.2 billion worth of BTC (around 10,000 coins) to Binance within a day, directly breaking through the $117,000 support level.
Retail investors lying flat: Ordinary people are waiting for the Fed's announcement tonight, trading volume is as quiet as a weekend internet cafe.
🐳 2. Whales making moves: $1.2 billion dumped, retail investors shivering in fear

🌧️ 1. Price: It dropped again, long investors are crying.
Today's Market: Bitcoin is fluctuating between $117,000 and $118,000, finally settling at $118,016 (about 8.56 million RMB), with a 24-hour drop of 0.13%–1.34%, equivalent to the loss of a Tesla Model S.
Why did it drop:
Big whales dumping: Wall Street institution Galaxy Digital transferred 3,782 BTC (worth $447 million) to exchanges in one day, and last week helped a mysterious big player dump 80,000 coins (worth $9 billion), leaving the market in shock.

Retail investors follow the crowd to sell: Most people on Binance are shorting, and institutions have pulled out of ETFs for three consecutive days (withdrawn $285 million), making Bitcoin feel like a hot potato.

📊 1. Price performance and market dynamics
Stabilizing rebound: Bitcoin price rises to $119,325–$119,552 (24-hour increase of 0.83%–1.1%), daily volatility about 2.5%, closing stabilizing above $119,000, recovering from the July 25 low of $115,152.
Rebound driving factors: U.S. and EU reach a trade framework agreement, reducing EU import tariffs from 30% to 15%, and commit to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy and investment infrastructure, easing trade tensions and boosting demand for risk assets.
Altcoin divergence:
Ethereum (ETH) up 4% to $3,924 (7-month high), XRP up 3.2%, Solana (SOL) up 3.5%.

📊 1. Price performance and market volatility
Stabilizing rebound: Bitcoin gradually rebounds from the July 25 low of $115,152, reaching a daily high of $118,013.60, ultimately closing around $117,541.90, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.98%.

Increased volatility: Daily fluctuation exceeded $2,800, mainly due to whale sell-offs and government transfers of Bitcoin causing panic, but end-of-day buying support helped prices recover.
Altcoin divergence: Ethereum (ETH) slightly up 0.1%, Solana (SOL) down 7.92%, XRP plummeting 12.4%, with capital rotating significantly towards stablecoins and DeFi protocols.

🐋 2. On-chain anomalies and capital flow

📉 One, Key Dynamics on July 25, 2025
Significant Price Correction
Bitcoin dropped 2.27%~2.56% in a single day, falling from the $118,000 range to $115,200–$115,555, creating a new weekly low.
Trigger Factors:
Whale Sell-off Warning: Galaxy Digital transferred 3,500 BTC (about $404 million) to exchanges, and another 1,500 BTC moved to unknown wallets, triggering market panic.
Leverage Liquidation Wave: $814 million liquidated across the network within 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 61% (about $542 million) due to sharp price drops triggering high leverage liquidations.
Technical Breakdown: After breaking the key support at $116,000, algorithmic trading programs accelerated selling.

One, want to spend money? The ideal is beautiful...
Theoreticians say:
'Can buy a Tesla! Can pay utility bills! El Salvador recognizes it as money!'
Reality hits hard
：
💸
Price roller coaster
：
Today enough to buy an iPhone, tomorrow only enough to buy an apple (real fruit)
🐢
Money arrives too slowly

：
Transferring money takes 1 hour (Alipay only 1 second)

🚫
Merchants change faces quickly
：
Tesla accepted Bitcoin for 3 months and then changed its mind: 'Can't count the accounts!'
✅
Summary
：
Like 'game currency'—

Can spend money in a small circle, but outside the circle it’s useless!
Two, trading assets? Casino warning!
Global authority's attitude:

📉 1. Price Performance and Market Structure
Narrow range fluctuations: Bitcoin fluctuated around $117,550–$119,000, with a slight drop of 0.44%–0.71% over 24 hours (varied data across platforms), down about 4% from the historical high of $123,218 on July 14.
Key level contention:

Support level: $116,200–$116,652 (technical support), if breached could test $114,354 or even $113,000 (Fibonacci retracement level).
Resistance level: $120,000–$120,811 (psychological barrier), with a target of $123,218 historical high if broken.
Altcoins broadly decline: Ethereum (ETH) fell 4% to $3,552, XRP plunged 12.4%, Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 14%, and Solana (SOL) fell 7.92%. Only MemeCore (M) rose 24.19, highlighting market differentiation.

📊 1. Price performance and market structure
High-level volatility correction: Bitcoin briefly broke through $120,500 (historical second-high), but then retraced to the $118,000–$119,300 range, with a slight 0.4% drop in 24 hours, down about 3% from the July peak of $123,218.

Large whale transfers: 7,718 BTC valued at $920 million were transferred from Kraken exchange to an unknown wallet in 43 minutes (largest single transfer of 4,166 BTC, approximately $496 million), interpreted as a signal for long-term accumulation, briefly pushing prices higher.
Leverage liquidation intensifies: $814 million in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 61% of losses (approximately $542 million), primarily due to sharp price drops triggering high-leverage liquidations.

📉 1. Price and Market Performance
Narrow Fluctuations: Bitcoin oscillates around $117,000 (intraday range $116,200–$118,400), rising 0.3% in 24 hours, but down about 5% from the previous week's high of $123,218.

Altcoin Divergence Intensifies:
Ethereum (ETH) falls 2.8% to $3,680, but still records a weekly increase of 26%.
Solana (SOL) rises 5.1% to $198.97, with RSI overbought at 80, short-term correction risk increases.
Bitcoin's market cap percentage falls below 60% (lowest at 58.5%), with significant funds rotating into altcoins, altcoin season index rises to 52 (more than half of mainstream tokens outperform BTC in 90 days).

📊 1. Price Performance and Market Structure
Narrow Fluctuation Stabilization: Bitcoin price fluctuates around $118,000 (intraday range $117,300–$120,000), with a slight increase of 0.28% over 24 hours, a small rebound from the previous day's low of $116,788. Early trading saw institutional funds pushing prices up, but selling pressure at the end of the day led to a drop below the critical support of $118,000, indicating a risk of correction.

Altcoins Strongly Diverting Funds:
Ethereum (ETH) rises 3.78% to $3,750, with a weekly gain of 26%; XRP and Solana (SOL) rise 2% and 3% respectively, while Dogecoin (DOGE) rises over 5% against the trend.

Bitcoin Market Capitalization Dominance fell below 60% in early trading (lowest at 59.8%), the first time since March, then rebounded to 60.1%, reflecting a faster shift of funds to high-volatility altcoins.

📊 1. Price performance and market corrections
Stabilizing fluctuations: Bitcoin price fluctuates around $118,000 (daily range $117,300–$120,000), slightly rebounding from the previous day's low of $116,788, with a 24-hour increase of 0.28%. Previously, due to profit-taking after the signing of the (GENIUS Act), Bitcoin temporarily fell from a high of $120,000.

Altcoin differentiation:
Ethereum (ETH) rises against the trend by 2.59%, breaking through $3,600;

Dogecoin (DOGE) rises over 5%, TRON (TRX) slightly up, but mainstream coins like XRP and SOL experience widespread declines.
Mass liquidations surge: The number of liquidations within 24 hours reaches 184,000–200,000 people, with liquidated amounts at $814 million, of which long positions account for 61% (approximately $542 million), primarily due to a sharp price drop triggering high-leverage liquidations.

"From 99% certainty it's a scam to 60% calling for daddy, every transaction you make is betting on the global table"
Core setting → A large slap-in-the-face scene
Imagine the whole village watching a mysterious person named Satoshi making inventions:
🔮
He set a flag
:
"My code system can replace banks! Total supply of 21 million will never exceed!"
👴
Villagers' reactions
:
Old Wang: "Fraud! Not worth as much as my pig!" (Prior belief: 99% failure)
Aunt Li: "Is this a pyramid scheme?" (Prior belief: 95% failure)
First slap in the face: The pizza incident
🍕

Key evidence