📊 1. Price performance and market dynamics

  • Stabilizing rebound: Bitcoin price rises to $119,325–$119,552 (24-hour increase of 0.83%–1.1%), daily volatility about 2.5%, closing stabilizing above $119,000, recovering from the July 25 low of $115,152.

  • Rebound driving factors: U.S. and EU reach a trade framework agreement, reducing EU import tariffs from 30% to 15%, and commit to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy and investment infrastructure, easing trade tensions and boosting demand for risk assets.

  • Altcoin divergence:

    • Ethereum (ETH) up 4% to $3,924 (7-month high), XRP up 3.2%, Solana (SOL) up 3.5%.

    • Bitcoin's market cap percentage drops to 60.76%, funds accelerate rotation towards altcoins, the market enters 'Risk-on Season'.

      📉 2. Technical analysis and key level analysis

      • Resistance and support:

        • Key resistance: $120,000–$120,811 (psychological barrier + July downtrend line), after breaking, target $123,218 (historical high) and $130,000.

        • Important support: $116,800 (immediate support), if lost, may test $111,673 (May high support level), this level is seen as the 'ideal accumulation zone'.

      • Indicator signals:

        • Bullish pattern: Glassnode's MVRV indicator shows the current price is in the +1.5σ range (approximately $110,756), if it stabilizes, it may push towards +2.0σ ($130,000).

        • Risk warning: 10x Research recommends waiting for a pullback to $111,673 before re-entering, to optimize the risk-reward ratio; if it directly breaks through $120,000, it will confirm a new round of upward momentum.


      ⛏️ 3. On-chain data and miner activity

      • Hashrate hits new high: Bitcoin's total network hashrate reaches 955.75 EH/s (historical peak), mining difficulty simultaneously rises to 127.62 trillion (increase of 1.07%), reflecting miners' confidence in long-term network security.

      • Miner selling pressure eases: Despite the increase in hashrate, the recent Miner Position Index (MPI) has not significantly risen, and large mining companies (such as Cipher Mining) are optimizing governance structures, focusing on operational efficiency, reducing market selling pressure.

      • Whale dynamics: The 80,000 BTC (approximately $9 billion) previously sold by Galaxy Digital has been absorbed by the market, with remaining positions not triggering further panic, indicating improved liquidity depth.


      💸 4. Fund flows and market sentiment

      • ETF fund divergence: Bitcoin spot ETF has ended consecutive net outflows, BlackRock's IBIT holdings have reached a new high of 731,515 BTC (market value $87 billion), but overall funds are rotating towards Ethereum ETF (daily inflow of $297 million).

      • Sentiment indicators contradictory:

        • Greed signal: Risk appetite rises, altcoin trading volume surges (e.g., MemeCore increased by 24.19% in a day).

      Leverage risk: Derivatives open interest exceeds $45.4 billion, funding rate annualized at 19%, high-leverage longs still face liquidation pressure.


      🌍 5. Policy and macro impact

      • Federal Reserve meeting upcoming: The market expects the July 30 interest rate decision to maintain 4.25%–4.50%, but is watching for September rate cut signals (probability rises to 68%). Dovish statements may further support Bitcoin.

      • White House policy report countdown: The crypto report to be released on July 30 is expected to disclose the U.S. government's Bitcoin reserve management plan and stablecoin regulatory framework; if the details of 'strategic reserves' are clarified, it may boost institutional confidence.

      • Geopolitical risk eases: U.S.-EU tariff agreement reduces political uncertainty, weakens demand for safe-haven assets (such as gold), indirectly benefiting Bitcoin.

      💎 Summary and outlook

      Core logic for July 28:

      Trade agreement boosts risk sentiment → Bitcoin stabilizes at $119K → Funds rotate to altcoins → Market awaits Federal Reserve/White House policy rollout

      • Short-term focus (July 30):

        • Federal Reserve interest rate decision: If signals for a September rate cut are released, it may push Bitcoin to break through $120,000.

        • White House crypto report: Focus on the 'national Bitcoin reserve' plan and regulatory details, exceeding expectations may catalyze upward momentum.

      • Technical strategy:

        • Conservatives: Waiting for a pullback to $111,673 support level to accumulate.

        • Aggressives: If it breaks through $120,000, can chase long positions, target $130,000. #BTC