📉 1. Price and Market Performance

  • Narrow Fluctuations: Bitcoin oscillates around $117,000 (intraday range $116,200–$118,400), rising 0.3% in 24 hours, but down about 5% from the previous week's high of $123,218.

  • Altcoin Divergence Intensifies:

    • Ethereum (ETH) falls 2.8% to $3,680, but still records a weekly increase of 26%.

    • Solana (SOL) rises 5.1% to $198.97, with RSI overbought at 80, short-term correction risk increases.

    • Bitcoin's market cap percentage falls below 60% (lowest at 58.5%), with significant funds rotating into altcoins, altcoin season index rises to 52 (more than half of mainstream tokens outperform BTC in 90 days).

  • Liquidation Risks: Over $800 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 61% of losses, and leverage liquidation pressure intensifies.


🏛️ 2. Regulatory and Policy Dynamics

  • Trump's related holdings disclosure: Trump Media Group (TMTG) announces it holds $2 billion in BTC and Bitcoin securities as part of its $2.5 billion investment plan, pushing its stock price up 9% in a day.

  • Policy Implementation Risks:

    • The Trump family is reported to hold shares in stablecoin company USD1, with Democrats questioning 'legislative profit-making,' which could trigger a conflict of interest investigation.

    • The White House is expected to release its first cryptocurrency policy report by the end of the month, with the Treasury Secretary stating 'the dollar is about to go on-chain,' affirming the (GENIUS Act) to solidify the dollar's status.

  • Asian Regulatory Progress:

Hong Kong's crypto ETF fund inflows remain sluggish (only accounting for 1.6% of total local ETF inflows), but China is exploring allowing mainland investors to indirectly allocate to Hong Kong crypto ETFs through the QDII mechanism.

  • South Korea plans to implement stock-level regulations on exchange token lending services, limiting leverage ratios.


  • Whales and Exchange Movements:

    • Exchange BTC reserves reach the highest level since June 25, with whale transfer volume surging 60% in 7 days and miners selling 16,000 BTC, indicating short-term profit-taking.

    • Whale participation with over 10,000 BTC reaches a new high since December 2024, with simultaneous accumulation signals strengthening long-term confidence.

  • ETF Fund Divergence:

    • Bitcoin spot ETF ends 12 consecutive days of net inflow, with a single-day net outflow of $131 million (mainly ARKB and GBTC); Ethereum ETF still sees a net inflow of $297 million.

  • Corporate Accumulation Wave:

    • Mexican real estate giant Grupo Murano launches 'Bitcoin Financial Transformation,' planning to create a $10 billion BTC reserve within 5 years.

US electric vehicle company Volcon uses 95% of its private placement funds (over $475 million) to purchase BTC.


📈 4. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

  • Key Level Contest:

    • Support Levels: $116,200 (immediate support) and $115,500 (bull-bear boundary), breaking could lead to a drop to $112,000.

    • Resistance Levels: $118,000–$120,000 has a large number of leveraged positions, breaking could trigger a short squeeze, targeting $123,218.

  • Contradictory Indicator Signals:

    • Bearish: Daily chart forms a 'bearish engulfing' pattern, RSI overbought (70.54), Bitcoin social media discussions account for 43.06% (overheating risk).

    • Bullish: On-chain MVRV only 1.15 (below selling pressure threshold of 1.35), scarcity indicator S2F ratio jumps 37.5% to 795,800, indicating long-term value support.


⚠️ 5. Market Outlook and Risk Alerts

  • Institutional Viewpoint Divergence:

    • Optimists: Ledn predicts the bull market will last until the end of 2025, with a target price of $136,000–$140,000; Bernstein maintains a year-end target of $150,000.

    • Cautious: Standard Chartered warns that if it falls below $112,000, it may drop to $100,000; exchange net inflows reversing suggest short-term selling pressure.

  • Macroeconomic Risks:

    • The probability of a Fed rate cut in September drops to 60%, with persistent inflation supporting the strength of the dollar.

    • Trump's tariff policy (effective August 1) and the UK selling 61,000 seized BTC (valued at $7.1 billion) may impact liquidity.


💎 Summary: Consolidation and Rotation After Policy Dividends

The core logic of the Bitcoin market on July 22 is:

Whale cashing out + ETF fund diversion → Altcoin season accelerates → Leverage liquidation amplifies volatility + Long-term scarcity support remains unchanged.

  • Short-term Focus:

    • Defense of the $116,200–$115,500 support zone, breaking could trigger a deep correction;

    • White House cryptocurrency policy report and Trump's 'pension market entry' executive order progress.

  • Long-term Momentum:

    • Corporate/National Strategic Reserves (e.g., Grupo Murano, US Bitcoin Reserve) deepen BTC's 'digital gold' narrative;

    • Stablecoin compliance (Tether's market cap exceeds $160 billion) may introduce $2 trillion in US Treasury demand.