According to CoinMarketCap data, the global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.58T, up by 3.14% over the last 24 hours.Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading between $74,657 and $77,543 over the past 24 hours. As of 09:30 AM (UTC) today, BTC is trading at $77,342, up by 3.40%.Most major cryptocurrencies by market cap are trading higher. Market outperformers include GENIUS, PLUME, and PHA, up by 36%, 27%, and 24%, respectively.Trump Announces Iran Deal "Largely Negotiated" — Bitcoin Surges From $74,250 to $77,000 as Hormuz Reopening Could Flip the Macro ScriptTrump announced a peace agreement with Iran is "largely negotiated" — including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — sending Bitcoin from a five-week low of $74,250 to $77,000 and recovering $75B in total crypto market cap. WTI dropped to $96 and Brent fell to $103 as the oil risk premium began unwinding, with next talks tentatively scheduled for June 5.Former Credit Suisse CIO Mark Connors says Bitcoin has ended its longest-ever underperformance streak against the S&P 500 and is entering an outperformance phase, while analyst Lawrence Lepard makes the contrarian case that Warsh will cut rates despite 68% hike odds — framing conflict-driven inflation as transitory. Core PCE, multiple Fed speeches, and the Conference Board sentiment index are the week's key data points.Bitcoin Surges From $74,250 to $77,000 as Trump Announces Largely Negotiated Iran Peace DealKey Takeaways:Trump posted on Truth Social that a peace deal is "largely negotiated" between the US, Iran, and a broad coalition including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain — with Hormuz reopening included as a key elementBitcoin bounced from a Saturday low of $74,250 to tap the 50-day EMA at $77,000 before settling ~$76,800; total crypto market cap recovered ~$75BWTI fell to $96, Brent to $103 — down meaningfully from the $108–$112 levels seen earlier in the week but still ~55% above pre-conflict February levelsSecretary of State Rubio reiterated core US demands: no Iranian nuclear weapon, Hormuz open without tolls, enriched uranium surrenderedThe deal language — "largely negotiated, subject to finalization" — signals progress but not completion; multiple prior ceasefire attempts have stalled at the final stageA confirmed deal would remove the single largest inflation input driving 68% rate hike odds, potentially reversing the $1.26B in six-day ETF outflows preceding the announcementSummary:Trump's announcement is the most concrete Iran de-escalation signal since the conflict began — and the market's $75B recovery response confirms how much of the recent crypto selloff was geopolitically driven rather than structurally bearish. The Hormuz reopening is the key: oil below $90 means cooling inflation, lower hike odds, compressed yields, and the restoration of the risk-on conditions that drove Bitcoin from $60,000 to $83,000 between February and May. The "largely negotiated" caveat is real — this deal has stalled before — but the breadth of the coalition involved and the specificity of Rubio's terms suggest this attempt is further along than prior ceasefire efforts.Macro Week Ahead: US-Iran Deal Could Deliver Interim Results as Fed Speeches and Core PCE Data Set the Rate PathKey Takeaways:US markets closed Monday May 26 for Memorial Day — reduced liquidity; Iran deal developments will be the primary price driver in early Asian and European tradingThursday May 29 is the week's heaviest data day: core PCE price index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge), personal spending, revised Q1 GDP, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims all release simultaneously at 20:30 ETNY Fed President John Williams speaks Thursday — a permanent FOMC voting member whose commentary on the inflation-rate path balance carries direct policy weightBOJ Governor Ueda speaks Wednesday — with Japan's 30-year yield at a record 4%, any hawkish BOJ signal would add to global bond yield pressureConference Board Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) provides a second read on household sentiment after UMich's record low of 44.8 last FridayFed Governor Bowman speaks Friday following the PCE data — her end-of-week commentary will be the clearest signal of how the Fed's internal consensus is developing under WarshSummary:Thursday's core PCE release is the week's defining data point. Unlike CPI, which has surprised to the upside two consecutive months, core PCE is the measure the Fed explicitly targets at 2% — a softer reading could meaningfully reduce hike odds and give Warsh political cover to pause rather than tighten further. A hot reading would add to the stagflation case and push the rate hike narrative further. Williams and Bowman's commentary around the data will be the first real window into how the Warsh Fed is processing the current inflation-growth trade-off — more consequential than any single data point.US-Iran Peace Talks Set for June 5 — Markets Watch for Strait of Hormuz ResolutionKey Takeaways:Al Arabiya TV reports the next round of US-Iran negotiations is tentatively scheduled for June 5 in Islamabad, per sources familiar with the discussionsThe date follows Trump's Truth Social announcement that a deal is "largely negotiated" among a 10-nation coalition with Hormuz reopening as a central elementWTI at $96 and Brent at $103 reflect partial de-escalation pricing — full Hormuz reopening could push oil toward $80–$85, easing the primary inflation driver of 2026June 5 provides markets with a concrete timeline for the next phase of negotiations — a meaningful shift from weeks of ambiguous "talks are ongoing" updatesSummary:A confirmed June 5 negotiating date is a market-relevant milestone because it converts vague diplomatic optimism into a specific event with a specific timeline. For crypto, the Iran conflict and Hormuz disruption have been identified by multiple analysts as the single largest macro headwind of 2026 — driving oil's 55% surge, re-accelerating inflation, and pushing hike odds above 68%. If June 5 produces a framework agreement on Hormuz, the resulting oil decline could be the catalyst that finally breaks the stagflation narrative holding Bitcoin below $80,000.Bitcoin Has Ended Its Longest Underperformance Streak in History and Is Ready to Beat Stocks and Bonds, Says Former Credit Suisse CIOKey Takeaways:Mark Connors, former Credit Suisse global head of portfolio management and current CIO at Risk Dimensions, says Bitcoin's 142-day underperformance streak against the S&P 500 — the longest in its history — ended in early May"I think bitcoin's underperformance versus markets is over. It's in the consolidation phase that has shifted into an outperformance phase," Connors saidHis thesis: persistent inflation and higher-for-longer rates damage bonds and equities more than Bitcoin — which has no duration risk and no earnings multiple to compressConnors explicitly parallels the current setup to 2020, when gold initially outperformed before Bitcoin began a multi-year resurgence that dramatically outpaced all traditional assets: "Gold has had its run. Bitcoin is now on its resurgence"He connects Bitcoin to the AI growth narrative: "The only way to punch through inflationary pressure is through technology" — AI and blockchain becoming increasingly linked as decentralized systems for machine-driven transactions at scaleSummary:Connors' call is bold at a moment when Bitcoin is near monthly lows and sentiment is in Fear territory — but the 142-day underperformance streak ending is a historically meaningful technical signal, not just an opinion. In prior cycles, extended Bitcoin underperformance against equities has been followed by sharp outperformance as the macro conditions that depressed relative performance shift. A Hormuz resolution, CLARITY Act passage, ARMA Bitcoin reserve bill, and a potential Warsh dovish pivot are all assembling simultaneously — none guaranteed, but together representing the most favorable confluence of potential catalysts Bitcoin has had since the ETF launches in January 2024.Analyst Says Warsh Will Cut Rates Despite 68% Hike Odds — The Contrarian Case That Could Flip Crypto MarketsKey Takeaways:Bitcoin investor and analyst Lawrence Lepard argues Warsh will cut rates by framing Iran conflict-driven inflation as "transitory" and citing AI productivity as a structural disinflationary force — despite 68% rate hike odds on CME FedWatchLepard cites NEC Director Kevin Hassett and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as having signaled rate-cutting trajectories consistent with his thesisAt Warsh's swearing-in, Trump said the US would tackle debt through "growth" and "we want to stop inflation, but we don't want to stop greatness" — clear signaling of preference for expansionary monetary policyIf Warsh cuts or signals dovishness: rate cut expectations were Bitcoin's primary tailwind from $60K to $83K in February-May; reversing hike odds back toward cuts could rapidly unwind ETF outflow pressure and restore institutional risk appetiteIf the consensus is right and hikes arrive: Bitcoin and crypto stocks could face months of additional pressure as rate uncertainty continues to weigh on positioningSummary:Lepard's contrarian thesis is a minority view against a strong consensus — but not an implausible one. The White House's clear preference for cuts, the potential for Hormuz-driven inflation to be framed as transitory if the peace deal closes, and Warsh's own AI and crypto investments create a scenario where he moves more dovishly than markets expect. The asymmetry is significant: if Lepard is wrong, markets stay where they are; if he is right, the repricing from 68% hike odds back toward cuts would be one of the largest single macro tailwinds Bitcoin has seen. How Warsh communicates in his first public appearances as chair — and whether he distances himself from or aligns with Trump's rate-cutting expectations — is the most important variable for crypto markets in the weeks ahead.Market movers:ETH: $2121.21 (+4.54%)BNB: $659.79 (+3.12%)XRP: $1.3655 (+3.90%)SOL: $86.66 (+5.57%)TRX: $0.3635 (+0.97%)DOGE: $0.10313 (+3.61%)ZEC: $637.81 (+7.67%)WBTC: $76692.45 (+2.96%)U: $1.0011 (+0.01%)XAUT: $4511.73 (+0.24%)