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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reportedly preparing to introduce an innovation exemption for tokenized stocks, as the on-chain real-world asset (RWA) market approaches $30 billion. According to NS3.AI, the plan is anticipated to be unveiled next week as part of Project Crypto. This exemption could allow crypto-native platforms and certain decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols to trade digital versions of public securities during a limited experimental phase.

Bitcoin has staged a sharp recovery from five-week lows after President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that a peace agreement with Iran has been largely negotiated — with the deal including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil chokepoint whose closure has been one of the primary drivers of elevated energy prices and crypto market weakness throughout the three-month conflict.
Crypto markets recovered approximately $75 billion in total capitalization following the announcement, with Bitcoin bouncing from a Saturday low of $74,250 on Coinbase to tap the 50-day exponential moving average at $77,000 in early Sunday trading before settling back to around $76,800 at the time of writing.
What Trump announced
Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday afternoon that an agreement has been "largely negotiated" among the United States, Iran, and a broad coalition of Middle Eastern nations including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain.
"An agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other countries, as listed," Trump wrote. "Final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened."
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking during a visit to India on Saturday, reiterated the core US demands that form the basis of the deal. "Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. The straits need to be open without tolls. They need to turn over their enriched uranium," Rubio said.
Oil pulls back but remains elevated
Oil markets responded immediately to the de-escalation signal. WTI crude dropped to $96 per barrel and Brent fell to $103 — meaningful declines from the $108 to $112 levels seen earlier in the week. However, both benchmarks remain approximately 55% above their pre-conflict levels from late February, reflecting how much geopolitical risk premium has been built into energy prices over the three months of conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz's closure and the uncertainty surrounding it has been one of the primary inflation inputs pressuring the Federal Reserve into a hawkish posture throughout May. Fundstrat's Tom Lee explicitly identified rising oil prices as the largest headwind for Ether and a key drag on the broader crypto market. A sustained reopening of the Strait — if the deal finalizes — would remove that pressure and potentially reverse the inflation re-acceleration narrative that has driven rate hike odds above 70% for year-end.
Context: three months of conflict and its market toll
The conflict began on February 28 when a US airstrike killed Iran's Supreme Leader, triggering a sequence of events that sent oil surging 55%, pushed US 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5%, flipped Federal Reserve rate expectations from cuts to hikes, and contributed to Bitcoin falling 39% from its October all-time high of $126,080.
Despite that backdrop, Bitcoin has actually outperformed the S&P 500 and gold since the conflict began — rising approximately 29% from the February lows near $60,000 to current levels around $76,800, even after the recent pullback from the May high of $83,000.
The ceasefire negotiations have been fragile throughout, with multiple failed attempts since early April. Saturday's announcement from Trump represents the most concrete progress toward a formal agreement yet — though the language of "largely negotiated" and "subject to finalization" signals the deal is not yet complete.
What a finalized deal could mean for crypto
A confirmed and durable Iran peace agreement would remove the single largest geopolitical risk premium embedded in global markets and potentially trigger a significant repricing across risk assets. Lower oil would reduce inflation pressure, ease the case for Fed rate hikes, compress Treasury yields, and restore the risk-on conditions that drove Bitcoin's rally from $60,000 to $83,000 between February and early May.
The ARMA strategic Bitcoin reserve bill introduced in Congress on Friday, combined with the CLARITY Act advancing through the Senate, and a potential Iran deal resolution could create the legislative and geopolitical backdrop for a renewed institutional inflow cycle into Bitcoin ETFs — reversing the $1.26 billion in six-day outflows that preceded Saturday's announcement.
For now, the $77,000 level — Bitcoin's approximate opening price for May — remains the key short-term level to reclaim and hold. A confirmed peace deal and sustained oil price decline could provide the catalyst needed to close the month above that level and preserve the three-consecutive-months-in-the-green streak that Tom Lee identified as a bull market confirmation signal.

Markets head into the week of May 26 with three interconnected themes dominating the outlook: the potential for an interim US-Iran peace agreement that could restore risk appetite across equities and crypto, a series of Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan speeches that may clarify the next stage of rate policy on both sides of the Pacific, and a heavy slate of US economic data headlined by the core PCE inflation index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — that will either reinforce or challenge the current 68% rate hike odds priced into year-end.
US markets are closed Monday May 26 for Memorial Day. CME precious metals and US crude oil futures trading is suspended at 02:30 Beijing time on May 26, US stock and Treasury futures at 01:00 Beijing time, and ICE Brent crude oil futures end earlier at 01:30 Beijing time.
The dominant theme: US-Iran interim agreement
Iran, the United States, Pakistan, and several foreign media outlets have all signaled progress in negotiations over the nearly three-month conflict, with Al Arabiya TV reporting the next round of talks is tentatively scheduled for June 5. If preliminary agreement outcomes are confirmed and implemented next week, capital markets could see a meaningful return of risk appetite — with US stocks and cryptocurrencies among the primary beneficiaries.
The stakes are significant. Oil's 55% surge since the conflict began in February has been the primary driver of inflation re-acceleration, Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, and the macro risk-off conditions that have pushed Bitcoin from $83,000 to near $74,000 over the past two weeks. A credible path to Strait of Hormuz reopening and conflict resolution would simultaneously reduce oil prices, ease inflation pressure, compress rate hike odds, and restore the risk-on backdrop that drove crypto's April recovery.
The macro calendar: key events day by day
Monday May 26 — US markets closed for Memorial Day. Reduced liquidity across futures markets. Any Iran deal developments over the weekend will be the primary price driver in early Asian and European trading.
Tuesday May 26 at 22:00 — US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May. Following the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index's record low reading of 44.8 last Friday, the Conference Board measure will provide a second read on household confidence. A second consecutive historically weak reading would reinforce the stagflationary narrative. Any surprise to the upside would be read as constructive for risk assets.
Wednesday May 28 at 08:00 — Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a monetary policy conference hosted by the Bank of Japan. With Japan's 30-year bond yields having hit a record 4% last week — their highest level in history — Ueda's remarks will be closely watched for signals about the BOJ's intentions around its own rate path. Any hawkish surprise from Tokyo would add to global bond yield pressure and tighten financial conditions further for risk assets including crypto.
Wednesday May 28 at 20:15 — ADP Employment Change for the period ending May 9. An early read on private sector hiring that will set expectations ahead of the following week's official payrolls report.
Thursday May 29 at 20:30 — The week's most data-intensive session. Five releases land simultaneously: US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23; US April core PCE price index year-on-year and month-on-month — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and the single most important data point of the week for rate expectations; US April personal spending month-on-month; revised US Q1 annualized real GDP quarter-on-quarter; and US April durable goods orders month-on-month.
The core PCE reading deserves particular attention. Unlike CPI, which has surprised to the upside for two consecutive months, core PCE strips out more volatile components and is the measure the Fed explicitly targets at 2%. If core PCE comes in above expectations — consistent with the recent CPI and PPI trend — it would add significant weight to the rate hike case and pressure risk assets. A softer reading could provide meaningful relief by creating room for the Fed to pause rather than hike.
Thursday May 29 at 20:55 — New York Fed President John Williams, a permanent FOMC voting member, delivers a keynote at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland. Williams is among the most influential voices on the Fed's rate-setting committee. Any commentary on the current inflation outlook or rate path will move markets.
Thursday May 29 at 22:15 — St. Louis Fed President Musaleem, a 2028 FOMC voting member, speaks. Watch for any commentary on the balance between inflation risks and growth concerns.
Friday May 30 at 07:30 — Japan April unemployment rate.
Friday May 30 at 18:50 — Kansas City Fed President Schmid, a 2028 FOMC voting member, speaks.
Friday May 30 at 21:10 — Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks. Bowman is a permanent FOMC voting member whose views carry direct policy weight. Her commentary following the core PCE data will provide the clearest end-of-week signal of how the Fed's internal consensus is developing under Warsh's leadership.

Ethereum's price fluctuations could lead to substantial liquidations on major centralized exchanges, according to ChainCatcher. Data from Coinglass indicates that if Ethereum surpasses $2,203, the cumulative liquidation of short positions could reach $921 million. Conversely, if Ethereum falls below $1,996, the liquidation of long positions could amount to $568 million.

Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of outperformance against traditional assets after breaking out of its longest-ever stretch of underperformance against the S&P 500 — a 142-day period that ended in early May — according to Mark Connors, former global head of portfolio management at Credit Suisse and current chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions.
Speaking in an interview, Connors made a bold call at a moment when Bitcoin is trading near $76,000, ETF outflows have accelerated, and macro sentiment has turned sharply negative. His argument is not that the near-term environment is easy — it clearly isn't — but that Bitcoin has historically absorbed macro shocks earlier and harder than other assets before emerging first on the other side.
"I think bitcoin's underperformance versus markets is over," Connors said. "It's in the consolidation phase that has shifted into an outperformance phase."
Why bonds and equities face the bigger structural problem
Connors' core thesis rests on the view that persistent inflation and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment create a more damaging structural problem for bonds and equities than for Bitcoin. Traditional fixed income, long considered a defensive haven, is under sustained pressure as markets adjust to the reality that rate cuts are no longer the base case — with CME FedWatch now showing nearly 68% odds of rate hikes by December 2026.
In that environment, bonds lose value as yields rise, and equity valuations face compression as the discount rate applied to future earnings increases. Bitcoin, by contrast, has no duration risk and no earnings multiple to compress. Its value proposition as a scarce, non-sovereign asset becomes more attractive — not less — as fiat monetary systems face inflation pressure and bond markets struggle.
"Bitcoin, as it always does, takes it on the chin early, but then it always comes out first," Connors said, adding that Bitcoin could continue outperforming both equities and fixed income "as we grind through the straits of poor news and oil persistently being high."
Oil, inflation, and the technology counterweight
Connors tied the current macro environment directly to geopolitical tensions and structurally elevated energy prices — a dynamic that has defined 2026 since the US-Iran conflict began in February and sent oil surging 55%. Rather than viewing high oil as an unambiguous negative, Connors sees it as an accelerant for the technology adoption that ultimately counters inflationary pressure.
"The only way to punch through that inflationary pressure is through technology," he said. In his framework, AI and blockchain are becoming increasingly linked as businesses seek decentralized systems capable of supporting machine-driven transactions and automation at scale — a thesis that connects Bitcoin's long-term value proposition directly to the AI growth narrative that has driven equity market outperformance in recent months.
This framing echoes the agentic AI payments argument that has gained traction among crypto analysts — the idea that autonomous AI systems will default to crypto rails for payments because they cannot access traditional bank accounts, creating structural demand for Bitcoin and programmable digital assets as AI adoption scales.
Gold's run is ending, Bitcoin's resurgence is beginning
Connors drew an explicit parallel between the current environment and 2020, when gold initially outperformed in the early stages of the pandemic shock before Bitcoin began a multi-year resurgence that dramatically outpaced every traditional asset class. In his read, the same rotation is underway now.
"Gold has had its run," Connors said. "Bitcoin is now on its resurgence."
The comparison carries weight given gold's behavior in the current cycle. Gold surged to record highs near $3,500 per ounce earlier in 2026 as geopolitical risk and inflation fears drove safe-haven demand — the same dynamic that initially favored gold in early 2020. If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin's current consolidation near $76,000 is not the beginning of a deeper bear leg but the base-building phase that precedes a sustained outperformance cycle against both gold and equities.
The 142-day underperformance streak in context
The 142-day stretch of Bitcoin underperformance against the S&P 500 that ended in early May was, according to Connors, the longest in Bitcoin's history. The fact that it ended — rather than extended indefinitely — is itself a signal in his framework. Historically, extended periods of Bitcoin underperformance have been followed by periods of sharp outperformance as the macro conditions that depressed relative performance shift.
The current setup combines several of those historical shift conditions simultaneously: a potential Iran peace deal that could deflate the oil premium, a new Fed chair whose rate intentions remain genuinely uncertain, a CLARITY Act advancing through Congress that could unlock institutional capital, and a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill that would formally recognize Bitcoin as a US national asset.
None of those catalysts guarantees the outcome Connors is projecting. But together they suggest that the macro and regulatory conditions for Bitcoin's next outperformance cycle are assembling — even if the timing of the move remains uncertain.

Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya TV reported on May 24 that the next round of negotiations between the United States and Iran is tentatively scheduled for June 5, citing unnamed sources familiar with the discussions.
The reported date follows President Trump's Truth Social announcement on Saturday that a peace agreement has been "largely negotiated" among the US, Iran, and a coalition of Middle Eastern nations including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain — with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz included as a key element of any final deal.
A confirmed June 5 negotiating session would provide markets with a concrete timeline for the next phase of de-escalation — a development that has already begun moving oil prices lower, with WTI dropping to $96 and Brent falling to $103 from the $108 to $112 levels seen earlier this week.
For Bitcoin and crypto markets, the June 5 date is a key watch point. The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption have been identified by multiple analysts including Fundstrat's Tom Lee as the single largest macro headwind for risk assets in 2026 — driving oil's 55% surge since February, re-accelerating inflation, and pushing Federal Reserve rate hike odds above 68% for year-end. A credible path to conflict resolution and Strait reopening could meaningfully reverse each of those pressures simultaneously.

Vitalik Buterin has announced that the Ethereum Foundation is set to become a smaller and more focused entity, with plans to reduce its ETH sales. According to NS3.AI, Buterin emphasized that these views are his personal opinions and highlighted Bastian Aue's role in executing much of this transition. The foundation currently holds approximately 0.16% of all ETH.

Nearly 68% of traders are pricing in an interest rate hike of at least 25 basis points by December 2026, according to CME FedWatch. Bitcoin is trading near $75,800 after breaking critical support. Consumer sentiment just hit a record low. By every conventional measure, the Federal Reserve under new chairman Kevin Warsh appears locked into a tightening path.
But author, Bitcoin investor, and market analyst Lawrence Lepard is making the opposite case — and his argument deserves serious attention precisely because it runs so directly against the current consensus.
Lepard's thesis: Warsh will cut, not hike
Lepard argued that signals from other senior US economic officials point toward rate cuts rather than hikes under Warsh. He specifically cited Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as having made comments consistent with a rate-cutting trajectory in 2026.
His framework for how Warsh gets there: "Warsh will cut. He will use the AI productivity and trimmed inflation excuses and will claim that all the war inflation is transitory." In Lepard's read, Warsh will frame the inflation generated by the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz oil disruption as temporary and supply-side in nature — the kind of inflation that passes on its own without requiring monetary tightening — while pointing to AI-driven productivity gains as a structural disinflationary force that justifies easier policy.
That framing has historical precedent. The Fed used "transitory" language extensively during the 2021 to 2022 inflation surge before abandoning it — a decision that cost the central bank significant credibility. Whether Warsh would be willing to revive a similar framework, and whether markets would accept it, is the central question Lepard's thesis raises.
Trump's signals reinforce the rate cut narrative
At Warsh's swearing-in ceremony on Friday, President Trump said the US would tackle its rising national debt through "growth" — language that signals a preference for an expansionary monetary environment and lower interest rates. Trump also said "we want to stop inflation, but we don't want to stop greatness" — a statement met with skepticism from investors and economists who noted the tension between fighting inflation and pursuing growth simultaneously.
Trump's track record of publicly pressuring the Fed on rates — he repeatedly called on outgoing chair Jerome Powell to cut rates and said he would be disappointed if Warsh didn't move immediately to ease policy — provides additional context for Lepard's argument. The question is not whether Trump wants rate cuts. It is whether Warsh will prioritize White House preferences over the inflation data that currently makes cuts extremely difficult to justify on conventional monetary policy grounds.
The consensus: 68% probability of rate hikes
The market consensus sits firmly in the opposite direction. CME FedWatch shows nearly 68% of traders pricing in a rate hike of 25 basis points or more by December 2026 — a dramatic shift from February's 96% rate cut expectations. The move reflects the cumulative impact of back-to-back hot CPI and PPI readings, oil above $100 per barrel, record-low consumer sentiment of 44.8, and rising long-term inflation expectations of 3.9% on the UMich 5-year measure.
In April, US lawmakers scrutinized Warsh's commitment to preserving Federal Reserve independence at his Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing, with Senator Elizabeth Warren raising potential conflicts of interest around Trump family crypto businesses and the new Fed chair's own investments in AI and digital asset companies.
What a rate cut would mean for Bitcoin and crypto
The stakes for crypto markets are significant. If Lepard is correct and Warsh pivots toward cuts — or even signals a more dovish posture than markets are currently pricing — the impact on Bitcoin and risk assets could be rapid and substantial. Rate cut expectations were the primary macro tailwind driving Bitcoin's recovery from $60,000 to $83,000 between February and May. The reversal of that expectation — from cuts to hikes — has been the primary macro headwind driving the retreat back toward $74,000 to $76,000.
A credible dovish signal from Warsh, even short of an actual rate cut, could reverse months of ETF outflow pressure, ease the options market hedging demand that has kept downside protection expensive, and restore the institutional risk appetite that briefly pushed Bitcoin toward a breakout above its 200-day moving average.
Conversely, if the consensus is correct and Warsh raises rates — or simply maintains the current restrictive stance while markets wait for clarity — Bitcoin and crypto stocks could face what some analysts have described as several months of declining asset prices as uncertainty over the rate path continues to weigh on positioning.
The bottom line
Lepard's contrarian view — that Warsh will ultimately cut rates by framing conflict-driven inflation as transitory and leaning on AI productivity as cover — is a minority position against a strong consensus. But it is not an implausible one. The White House's clear preference for lower rates, combined with the geopolitical de-escalation now potentially underway through the Iran peace deal negotiations, could give Warsh the political and economic justification he needs to move toward easing faster than markets currently expect.
How Warsh communicates in his first public appearances as Fed chair — and whether he distances himself from or aligns with the rate-cutting expectations Trump has signaled — will be the most important variable for Bitcoin and crypto markets in the weeks ahead.

Bitcoin is trading around $75,800 — down nearly 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 — after breaking below a crucial support zone between $75,000 and $76,000 on Friday. The breakdown has prompted a fresh wave of bearish price targets from analysts, with some warning a revisit of the February $60,000 low is now on the table, while others argue long-term holder behavior and historical bull market indicators make a collapse of that magnitude unlikely.
Van de Poppe: $60,000 possible if $76,600 doesn't reclaim
Crypto market analyst Michaël van de Poppe flagged Friday's break below the $75,000 to $76,000 support zone as a significant technical development, while noting that market corrections occurring on Fridays "flip back bullish quite often" — leaving the door open for a recovery before the weekly close.
Van de Poppe pointed to multiple CME Bitcoin futures gaps above the current spot price, the highest of which sits above $79,000, as a reason the market may still grind higher in the near term. But he drew a clear line in the sand: "If Bitcoin doesn't grind back upwards to $76,600 or more, then there's clearly no argument to assume that we are going to get into new highs and just remain within this range."
The implication is straightforward. A failure to reclaim $76,600 removes the case for new highs and opens the path toward the $60,000 level — revisiting the February low that marked the deepest drawdown of the current cycle.
Polymarket: 51% odds of Bitcoin hitting $55,000 in 2026
Prediction markets are reflecting the growing bearish consensus. Polymarket currently gives a 51% probability that Bitcoin hits $55,000 at some point in 2026, while odds of a drop to $45,000 sit at 31%. Earlier in May, Polymarket was pricing a 65% chance of Bitcoin falling to $75,000 — a level that has now been broken, validating the downside scenarios the market had been pricing.
The macro backdrop reinforces the bearish case. Newly appointed Fed chairman Kevin Warsh inherited a stagflationary environment on day one — record-low consumer sentiment at 44.8, rising long-term inflation expectations, and rate hike odds above 70% for year-end. Bitcoin's bear market is now entering its seventh month, and the inability to reclaim the 200-day moving average at $83,000 has kept the technical picture firmly bearish on higher timeframes.
TradingView data shows Bitcoin continues to trade well below its 365-day and 200-day exponential moving averages — both dynamic resistance levels — and closed below the 50-day EMA on Friday, adding another layer of technical deterioration to the price structure.
The bull case: long-term holders and historical precedent
Not all analysts share the bearish outlook. Two separate data points push back against the $60,000 revisit scenario.
First, on-chain data shows that approximately 71% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held by long-term holders — a cohort that has historically absorbed selling pressure rather than contributing to it. The concentration of supply in strong hands reduces the available float for sellers to drive prices dramatically lower, making a sustained break below $60,000 structurally difficult even in a weak macro environment.
Second, trader and analyst Matthew Hyland pointed to the 90-day uptrend that followed February's $60,000 low as historically unprecedented in bear market conditions. "There has never been a rally that trended upward for 89 days ever in a bear market in BTC history," Hyland said, adding that the break of high timeframe resistance that accompanied that rally "has also marked the start of a bull market rally the prior three times." If that historical pattern holds, the current pullback is a correction within an ongoing bull market rather than the beginning of a new bear leg.
K33 Research has also maintained that February's $60,000 low represents the maximum drawdown of the current cycle, citing 81 consecutive days of negative funding rates as evidence that the kind of leverage buildup that preceded prior bear market collapses has not occurred in this cycle.
The key level: $76,600
With Bitcoin recovering toward $76,800 following Trump's Iran peace deal announcement on Saturday, the immediate focus returns to van de Poppe's line in the sand at $76,600. Reclaiming and holding that level would stabilize the technical picture and reopen the case for a recovery toward the CME gap above $79,000. Failing to do so heading into the new week would validate the bearish scenario and bring the $71,000 to $73,000 support zone — and ultimately the $60,000 level — into realistic range.
The Iran deal progress, the ARMA strategic Bitcoin reserve bill, and the CLARITY Act's continued legislative momentum provide potential positive catalysts. But until the macro headwinds from inflation, Fed rate hike odds, and bond market stress show concrete signs of reversing, the weight of technical and flow evidence continues to favor caution over conviction.

Fundstrat chairman Tom Lee struck a constructive but nuanced tone on US equities in a CNBC interview on May 24, arguing that the stock market's fundamental picture remains healthy despite rising oil prices and bond yields — while flagging a set of specific risks that could create pressure in the second half of 2026.
The bull case: healthy fundamentals and AI dominance
Lee argued that the US economy possesses structural advantages that distinguish it from other major economies and support continued equity market strength. He cited the US's dominant position in artificial intelligence technology, relative energy independence compared to Europe and Asia, and strong consumer resilience as the three pillars of his constructive view.
"Compared to the beginning of the year, US stocks still have greater upside potential before the end of the year," Lee said. "We have some issues to digest later this year, but currently the fundamentals are healthy and supported by earnings."
The earnings backdrop Lee referenced has been one of the most consistent surprises of the current cycle. Mega-cap technology companies have repeatedly beaten revenue and profit expectations despite macro headwinds — a dynamic that has helped the Nasdaq recover strongly from April's lows even as Bitcoin and other risk assets have struggled.
AI IPOs: trillions in wealth creation, with a supply caveat
Lee identified the upcoming IPOs of major AI companies — specifically OpenAI and SpaceX — as a significant catalyst for wealth creation and market stimulation in the second half of 2026. OpenAI raised $122 billion at an $850 billion valuation in late March and is racing toward a public listing. SpaceX, which merged with xAI in February and was valued at $1.25 trillion, confidentially filed its IPO prospectus in April.
Lee argued that these listings will generate trillions of dollars in new wealth for founders, early investors, and employees — capital that will subsequently flow into consumption and broader market activity, providing a meaningful economic and market stimulus.
However, Lee also flagged the flip side of large-scale IPOs: share supply pressure. As post-IPO lock-up periods expire and early investors gain the ability to sell, the market will face an increase in available stock supply — a technical headwind that can weigh on prices even in a fundamentally healthy environment. Lee warned this dynamic could create meaningful pressure later in the year as SpaceX and OpenAI shares begin unlocking.
AI and semiconductors: not a bubble
On the question of whether AI and semiconductor stocks have entered bubble territory — a concern that has grown as the Nasdaq's AI-driven rally has pushed valuations to elevated levels — Lee was direct in his dismissal. The market is chasing genuinely scarce assets, he argued, not fictional narratives.
"Demand for AI-related products remains strong, while supply remains insufficient," Lee said. The supply constraint on AI infrastructure — compute, chips, data center capacity, and specialized talent — means that the companies building that infrastructure are not being overvalued on speculative future earnings but on real and growing current demand that supply cannot yet match. In Lee's framework, that is the opposite of a bubble condition.
The risks Lee is watching: midterms, oil, and IPO unlocks
Despite his overall constructive stance, Lee laid out three specific risks for the second half of 2026. Seasonal uncertainty from the midterm elections — which historically create market volatility as investors reprice political risk and potential policy shifts. A liquidation period tied to oil product inventory shortages — consistent with the broader energy market disruption the Iran conflict has created. And the share supply pressure from SpaceX and OpenAI IPO lock-up expirations noted above.
Lee also clarified his earlier prediction of a stock market correction, explaining that the bear markets he anticipated have already occurred in specific segments. "We've already experienced bear markets in the MAG-7 and software sectors, and other stocks will experience bear markets later this year, but the MAG-7 and software sectors will be spared this time," he said — framing the coming correction as a rotation into previously untouched areas of the market rather than a broad-based decline.
What it means for Bitcoin and crypto
Lee's constructive equity view has direct implications for crypto markets given the strengthening correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq that has developed through 2026. If US stocks continue grinding higher into year-end as Lee projects — supported by AI earnings strength and IPO-driven wealth creation — the risk-on backdrop that has historically supported Bitcoin outperformance becomes more durable.
The caveat is timing. Lee's identified risks — midterm uncertainty, oil inventory disruptions, and IPO supply pressure — are all second-half 2026 phenomena. The near-term picture remains dominated by the inflation data, Fed rate expectations, and geopolitical developments that have driven Bitcoin's retreat from $83,000 to $74,000 to $76,000 over the past two weeks. Lee's year-end optimism provides a longer-term framework but does not resolve the immediate macro headwinds Bitcoin faces heading into June.

Hyperliquid's HYPE token experienced a significant increase, climbing nearly 10% to surpass $63. According to NS3.AI, this surge was driven by renewed interest in a $1.16 billion buyback program. As a result, HYPE's market capitalization exceeded $15 billion, securing the 11th position in global rankings. James Seyffart highlighted that since their launches in May, 21Shares' THYP and Bitwise's BHYP have seen approximately $53 million in cumulative inflows.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to convene a meeting with banks on Tuesday to address cybersecurity risks revealed by Anthropic's latest AI model, Claude Mythos Preview. According to Jin10, ECB Supervisory Board Vice Chair Frank Elderson expressed regret that European banks do not have access to the Mythos model, but he hopes that American banks attending the meeting will share their experiences and lessons from testing the model. Elderson emphasized that the inability to use the model should not be an excuse for inaction, as malicious actors may soon acquire this technology. Anthropic has disclosed that the Mythos model has identified thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities across all major operating systems and web browsers.

Cryptocurrency markets have seen a recovery of approximately $75 billion in total capitalization following an update from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a peace agreement with Iran. According to Cointelegraph, Trump announced on Truth Social that a deal has been "largely negotiated" between the United States, Iran, and several Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain.
Trump stated that the agreement is subject to finalization and that the final aspects and details are currently being discussed, with an announcement expected soon. A significant component of the deal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway whose closure has led to increased global energy prices and impacted the cost of living in many countries. The closure has also affected investments in high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies, which have seen a retreat in recent times.
The announcement comes amid a fragile ceasefire that began in early April, following several unsuccessful attempts to reach an agreement between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a visit to India, reiterated Trump's demands for a peace deal, emphasizing that "Iran can never have a nuclear weapon," and that the straits should be open without tolls, with Iran required to turn over its enriched uranium.
In response to the news, the cryptocurrency market reacted positively. Bitcoin prices, which had fallen to a five-week low of $74,250 on Saturday, saw a recovery, reaching the 50-day exponential moving average at $77,000 in early trading on Sunday. However, it later fell back to $76,800 at the time of publication. Despite the minor recovery, Bitcoin remains in a downtrend, having failed to break resistance at $82,000, and is still down 39% from its peak in October.

The Federal Reserve has released an updated proposal for its 'skinny' master account, aiming to provide fintech and crypto firms access to its payment rails without requiring them to be fully chartered banks. This update follows U.S. President Donald Trump's executive orders directing the integration of digital assets into existing payment networks and strengthening Bank Secrecy Act regulations, according to CoinDesk. The Fed's proposal, initially published in December 2025, outlines how it plans to grant access to payment accounts, potentially requiring legislative support from Congress.

Bitcoin has lost the structural upward momentum that defined its recovery from February's $60,000 lows, and every bounce in the current environment remains unconfirmed until a key on-chain indicator returns above zero, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler. The warning comes alongside data showing that 30-day Bitcoin ETF flow momentum has collapsed 97% from its December 2024 peak — painting a picture of an institutional demand environment that has deteriorated far more severely than spot price alone suggests.
The structural impulse signal: what it means and why it matters
Adler's core framework distinguishes between price movements that are supported by genuine structural buying pressure and those that are not. Bitcoin's on-chain Impulse indicator — which measures whether the market's underlying demand structure is in a bullish or bearish configuration — has fallen below zero, a threshold that has historically separated confirmed uptrends from bear market rallies.
The implication is direct: until Impulse returns above zero, Bitcoin bounces — including the recovery from $74,250 toward $77,000 following Trump's Iran peace deal announcement — cannot be treated as confirmed reversals. They are potential relief rallies within a risk-off regime rather than evidence that the structural trend has shifted.
"Bitcoin lost its structural bullish impulse exactly when the macro backdrop sharply deteriorated," Adler wrote in his weekly analysis. "This is an important signal: the market looks like a risk-off regime, where every BTC bounce remains unconfirmed until Impulse returns above zero."
When macro enters override mode
Adler's macro framework is built on three indicators — the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-year US Treasury yield, and the VIX volatility index — and the relationship between those indicators and Bitcoin's on-chain structure. His key insight is that macro factors do not always override on-chain signals. Most of the time, on-chain data provides a reliable independent read of Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics regardless of what traditional markets are doing.
But there are periods — which Adler calls "override mode" — when the macro backdrop becomes so dominant that even a constructive on-chain setup temporarily loses its predictive power. The current environment, characterized by 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5%, UK gilts at 28-year highs, VIX elevated from geopolitical stress, and the Federal Reserve now pricing rate hikes rather than cuts, meets that threshold.
"Not all macro fluctuations will disrupt on-chain structure," Adler noted. "But when macro factors truly enter a dominant mode, even if on-chain data is positive, the market may temporarily lose upward momentum." That caveat — temporarily — is important. Override mode does not permanently break on-chain signals. It suppresses them until the macro regime shifts.
ETF momentum: 97% collapse from peak
The newly launched CryptoQuant Bitcoin ETF dashboard provides quantitative context for just how far institutional demand has deteriorated. The 30-day ETF Flow Momentum currently sits at $362.8 million — a figure that sounds meaningful in isolation but represents a 97% collapse from the $13.21 billion peak recorded in December 2024, when institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs was at its most intense following the products' first-year success.
The momentum indicator also provides historical context for the current phase. The low reached negative $5.36 billion in November 2025 — the period of maximum ETF outflow pressure — before recovering through the April inflow cycle that brought cumulative net inflows close to $60 billion. The current reading of $362.8 million sits between those extremes, indicating a market that has cooled significantly from peak accumulation without yet reaching the kind of structural outflow pressure seen at cycle lows.
Whether momentum continues declining toward negative territory — signaling a structural outflow phase — or stabilizes and begins recovering will be one of the clearest signals of where institutional demand is heading in the weeks ahead.
The Coinbase Premium Index: is US demand real?
Adler highlighted the Coinbase Premium Index as a critical companion indicator to ETF flow data. The index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase — the primary platform for US institutional and retail spot demand — and global reference prices. When the premium holds sustainably above zero, it confirms that genuine US buying is supporting the market. When it turns negative, even a rising Bitcoin price may not reflect real American buyer demand — the move could be driven by offshore markets or derivatives rather than spot accumulation in the world's most important institutional market.
The practical implication for traders is significant. A Bitcoin price increase accompanied by a negative Coinbase Premium is a less reliable signal than one accompanied by a positive premium, because the absence of US spot demand removes one of the most durable sources of structural support. Anyone watching recent price action and asking whether to buy or treat the bounce as a trap should be cross-referencing the Coinbase Premium alongside ETF flow momentum — two indicators that together provide a more complete picture of whether genuine institutional demand is behind the move.
The seven-layer framework
Adler's Weekly Engine breaks the Bitcoin market down into seven analytical layers to assess what is actually holding price up and what structural forces are positioned to push it lower. The framework integrates on-chain impulse signals, macro override conditions, ETF flow momentum, Coinbase Premium dynamics, and additional supply and demand indicators to provide a comprehensive read of where the market stands — going well beyond simple price analysis to identify whether a given price level is genuinely supported or merely sustained by temporary factors.
In the current environment, that multi-layer analysis is pointing consistently in the same direction: risk-off conditions, unconfirmed bounces, declining ETF momentum, and a macro backdrop in override mode. Until the Impulse indicator returns above zero and the Coinbase Premium confirms sustained US demand, the structural case for Bitcoin's next leg higher remains incomplete.

On May 24, 2026, 09:26 AM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, BNB has crossed the 660 USDT benchmark and is now trading at 660 USDT, with a narrowed 3.11% increase in 24 hours.

On May 24, 2026, 06:52 AM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, Bitcoin has crossed the 77,000 USDT benchmark and is now trading at 77,061.148438 USDT, with a narrowed 2.20% increase in 24 hours.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes from April revealed that most policymakers consider further policy tightening likely if inflation remains above the 2% target. According to NS3.AI, the CME FedWatch tool indicated a 54.1% probability of a rate hike by December, with only a 1.5% chance of easing by May 20. On May 20, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,300.

U.S. government officials have announced that a deal with Iran will not be signed today. According to NS3.AI, the officials stated that the United States rejects any transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz.

Nvidia and Target have been given increased price targets by several research firms. According to NS3.AI, Needham has set a price target of $270 for Nvidia, while Wolfe Research has projected a slightly higher target of $275. In addition, Telsey Advisory Group's Joseph Feldman has predicted that Target's stock could reach $150.

On May 24, 2026, 14:13 PM(UTC). According to Binance Market Data, Ethereum has dropped below 2,100 USDT and is now trading at 2,094.889893 USDT, with a narrowed narrowed 2.40% increase in 24 hours.

A senior U.S. official stated during a briefing that the White House does not anticipate concluding the war agreement with Iran by Sunday, as it may take several days for approval from Iran's leadership, including the Supreme Leader. According to Odaily, U.S. officials remain optimistic about signing the agreement within days but acknowledge it is not finalized and could still fall apart. The agreement aims to prevent war escalation and ease global oil supply pressures, though it is uncertain if a lasting peace agreement can be achieved that meets U.S. President Donald Trump's nuclear requirements.
On Sunday, Trump expressed on social media that he has instructed representatives not to rush the agreement, emphasizing that both sides should take their time to ensure it is done properly.

Joi AI is currently recruiting 10 individuals to serve as masturbation consultants for a four-week product test of its Daily Guided Masturbation service. According to NS3.AI, the company is offering $2,000 to each participant who completes the testing period. Eligible applicants must be adults aged 18 and older residing in the U.S. or the U.K. Participants will be required to provide written feedback and complete questionnaires to assist the company in evaluating the product.

BitMine has expanded its Ethereum holdings by purchasing an additional 60,000 ETH, valued at approximately $126 million, as Ethereum's price hovered around $2,000. According to NS3.AI, this acquisition increases BitMine's total Ethereum assets to over 5.2 million ETH, with a current market value of about $11.1 billion. Additionally, FTSE Russell has included BitMine in the preliminary list for the 2026 Russell 3000 Index.

The tokenized asset market has experienced significant growth, expanding from under $3 billion to approximately $34 billion over the past two years, according to a16z. U.S. Treasuries represent $15.2 billion of this market, yet only 5% of the circulating supply of tokenized Treasuries is utilized in DeFi protocols. a16z highlighted long-term projections for the market, which range from $2 trillion to $30 trillion by 2030.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back has criticized the valuation of memecoins, smart contract tokens, and other 'air tokens,' stating that efficient markets are finally repricing these assets. According to BeInCrypto, Back argues that most of these tokens lack genuine foundations for their valuations, producing no cash flows, attracting no meaningful demand, and holding no competitive advantages. Back, a Bitcoin maximalist and inventor of Hashcash, expressed surprise that the market correction took so long. He continues to advocate for buying and holding Bitcoin as the logical investment choice.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner. According to Odaily, he has instructed his representatives not to rush into an agreement, emphasizing that time is on their side. The blockade will remain fully effective until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Both parties must proceed cautiously to avoid any mistakes.

The prediction market Polymarket has observed a significant fluctuation in the "Thunder vs. Spurs" event, specifically in the sub-market "Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5." According to ChainCatcher, the probability of the "Yes" option has plummeted from 34.5% an hour ago to the current 17%, marking a 17.5% change. This shift highlights the impact of recent developments on market predictions.

The prediction market Polymarket has observed significant fluctuations in the odds for the 'Weibo Team' option in the 'First Kill in Game 3?' sub-market of the 'LoL: Weibo Team vs. LGD Team (BO5) - LPL Qualifiers' event. According to ChainCatcher, the probability for the Weibo Team option plummeted from 99.5% to 74% within the past hour, marking a 25.5% change. Stakeholders should be aware of potential impacts from related breaking news.

AI agents have completed over 176 million on-chain transactions between May 2025 and April 2026, according to a Keyrock report. These transactions settled more than $73 million. Keyrock noted that 76% of the AI agent payment amounts were below the common 30-cent fixed fee threshold for traditional bank cards.

A significant financial movement has been detected on the Polymarket prediction platform, according to ChainCatcher. A whale investor has placed a substantial bet of $91,386.83 on West Ham United in the event against Leeds United. Based on the current transaction price, the latest implied probability of West Ham United winning stands at 58%.

Crypto lender Ledn forecasts the bitcoin-backed lending market could expand from approximately $3 billion today to $1 trillion within a decade, driven by strong borrower demand, according to CoinDesk. A survey by Protocol Theory revealed that 88% of crypto holders would consider borrowing against their assets, though only 14% currently do. The report highlights volatility, liquidation risk, and regulatory uncertainty as major barriers to adoption. Ledn's co-founder Mauricio Di Bartolomeo emphasized the need for trust infrastructure to boost borrower confidence.

Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Bitcoin Treasury company Strategy, announced on the X platform that he has purchased bonds this week instead of Bitcoin. According to Odaily, Saylor mentioned that ₿itVac is currently recharging.

SpaceX is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) with an estimated fundraising target between $50 billion and $75 billion, corresponding to a valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. According to Odaily, this could potentially be the largest IPO in history. Analysts suggest that SpaceX's high valuation may lead to its rapid inclusion in major indices and ETFs, with passive fund allocation possibly surpassing previous large IPOs.
Under current rules and potential reforms, the Vanguard VTI and growth stock ETF VUG, which track the CRSP index, could include SpaceX within five trading days post-IPO. The Nasdaq 100 index, tracked by QQQ, might incorporate SpaceX within 15 trading days. The Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 Growth indices are expected to include SpaceX by September and December this year, respectively. The S&P 500 index, tracked by SPY, may include SpaceX in 2027 following rule modifications.
SpaceX's weight in the Nasdaq 100 could range from 0.47% to 0.70%, higher than its proportion in most float-adjusted market cap-weighted indices. Analysts note that as the lock-up period ends and more internal shareholders sell shares, SpaceX's float could increase, further boosting its weight in mainstream indices. However, SpaceX's current challenge is its low float, with publicly traded shares estimated at only 2.86% to 3.75%, significantly lower than the average of over 80% for most large U.S. tech companies. This low float could affect its weight in indices using float-adjusted market cap weighting.

Strategists from ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays have cautioned that long-term yields may not significantly decline even if inflation driven by oil prices subsides. According to NS3.AI, these experts suggest that market borrowing costs could continue to hover near multi-year highs, indicating a sustained period of elevated yields.

BNP Paribas and Needham analysts have issued positive ratings for Rivian stock, which is currently trading below $15. According to NS3.AI, BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello has set a price target of $22, while Needham analyst Chris Pierce has projected a target of $23.

The prediction market Polymarket has experienced significant volatility in its event forecasting the WTI crude oil price for May 2026. According to ChainCatcher, the probability for the sub-market option predicting WTI oil will reach $85 dropped sharply from 67.5% to 41% within an hour, marking a fluctuation of 26.5%. Stakeholders are advised to monitor any related breaking news that may impact these predictions.

The prediction market Polymarket has experienced a significant change in odds for a specific event related to the Dota 2 match between Team Spirit and Aurora in the DreamLeague playoffs. According to ChainCatcher, the sub-market predicting whether the total kills in the second game would exceed 70.5 saw the probability for the 'over' option surge from 50% to 90% within an hour, marking a 40% fluctuation. This shift highlights the impact of sudden developments on market predictions.

Despite concerns about inflation driven by war, other factors are also influencing long-term borrowing costs. According to Jin10, in the United States, the so-called 'real yields,' which exclude the impact of inflation, have a significant effect, indicating that bond investors are worried about more than just price pressures from the Iran war. Additional factors include the potential further expansion of the already substantial public debt burden, the impact of the AI investment boom, and the increasing likelihood of interest rate hikes by central banks like the Federal Reserve, rather than cuts. Strategists from ING, Goldman Sachs, and Barclays emphasize that a common speculation is that the recent rise in some long-term yields will not be fully reversed even if inflation driven by rising oil prices subsides. This suggests that even if the conflict ends, market borrowing costs may remain near multi-year highs, continuing to pressure governments and the economy.

Iran's Supreme Leader's military advisor, Mohsen Rezaei, announced that Iran will respond firmly and unprecedentedly to any actions targeting the Hormuz Strait or hostile forces entering the Persian Gulf. According to Odaily, Rezaei stated that Iran would counteract by breaking any maritime blockade. He also mentioned that if the current situation persists, one of Iran's strategic options could be to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
The advisor emphasized that Iran's management of the Hormuz Strait has ended 50 years of insecurity in the Gulf region, asserting that managing the strait is Iran's legitimate right to ensure national security.