🌧️ 1. Price: It dropped again, long investors are crying.

  • Today's Market: Bitcoin is fluctuating between $117,000 and $118,000, finally settling at $118,016 (about 8.56 million RMB), with a 24-hour drop of 0.13%–1.34%, equivalent to the loss of a Tesla Model S.

  • Why did it drop:

Big whales dumping: Wall Street institution Galaxy Digital transferred 3,782 BTC (worth $447 million) to exchanges in one day, and last week helped a mysterious big player dump 80,000 coins (worth $9 billion), leaving the market in shock.

Retail investors follow the crowd to sell: Most people on Binance are shorting, and institutions have pulled out of ETFs for three consecutive days (withdrawn $285 million), making Bitcoin feel like a hot potato.


🐳 2. Major Events: Big whales making moves, exchanges are going crazy.

  • Galaxy strikes again: Within 12 hours, it transferred 3,782 Bitcoins to the exchange, and netizens complained, 'Is this a clearance sale for the New Year?'

  • Retail investors stock up against the trend: Users of exchange Bitget are aggressively accumulating BTC, with holdings soaring 45% in a month (from 6,594 to 9,531 coins), pushing back against institutional selling pressure.


😰 3. Market Sentiment: Greed turns into fear, leverage has hit painful levels.

  • Greed Index Cooling: Dropped from last week's 'Extreme Greed' (75) to 'Normal Greed' (66), people are starting to hold onto their wallets.

  • Bankruptcy Disaster: $707 million was liquidated across the network within 24 hours, of which 78% were long positions (about $552 million), with high-leverage players lining up to jump off the roof.


📉 4. Technical Analysis: Double top warning, is September going to be cold?

  • Death Double Top Signal: Technicians have noticed that Bitcoin's movement resembles the 'double top camel shape' before the 2021 crash, predicting a potential peak drop around September 10, scaring many into reducing their positions early.

  • Key Support Level:

    • Holding $116,000: If it breaks, it could drop straight to $112,000 (equivalent to losing a Porsche).

    • Counterattack at $120,000: Only if it breaks higher is there hope for a new high; otherwise, it continues to oscillate and lose ground.


🔮 5. Highlights for Tomorrow: Federal Reserve + White House, two lifelines?

  • Federal Reserve Meeting (July 30): Probability of a rate cut in September rises to 68%. If they go dovish (soft talk), Bitcoin might bounce back.

  • White House Encryption Report: The Trump administration is set to announce a 'National Bitcoin Reserve Plan.' If they shout 'stock up on coins,' institutions might rush back in.


💎 Summary: The self-cultivation of retail investors

Today's Script: Big whales dumping → Institutions following suit → Retail investors crying out in liquidation → Hardcore players seizing the opportunity to bottom-fish.
Operation Guide:

  • Short-term Traders: Keep a close eye on $116,000, if it breaks, hurry to exit; if it breaks through $120,000, a small chase might be warranted.

  • Long-term Investors: If it drops below $112,000, buy in batches at a discount and hold steady for next year's $150,000.