📊 1. Price performance and market structure
High-level volatility correction: Bitcoin briefly broke through $120,500 (historical second-high), but then retraced to the $118,000–$119,300 range, with a slight 0.4% drop in 24 hours, down about 3% from the July peak of $123,218.
Large whale transfers: 7,718 BTC valued at $920 million were transferred from Kraken exchange to an unknown wallet in 43 minutes (largest single transfer of 4,166 BTC, approximately $496 million), interpreted as a signal for long-term accumulation, briefly pushing prices higher.
Leverage liquidation intensifies: $814 million in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 61% of losses (approximately $542 million), primarily due to sharp price drops triggering high-leverage liquidations.
🐋 2. On-chain data and institutional trends
Exchange reserves surge: Bitcoin net inflow to exchanges reaches the highest level since July 2024, with whale transfer volume increasing by 60% in a week, and miners selling 16,000 BTC during the same period, indicating short-term profit-taking pressure.
ETF fund divergence: Bitcoin spot ETF ends a consecutive 12-day net inflow, with a single-day net outflow of $131 million (mainly ARKB and GBTC), but BlackRock's IBIT holdings reach a new high of 731,515 BTC (market value $87 billion).
Long-term confidence unchanged: Exchange BTC balance drops to a 5-year low, with more funds moving to cold wallets or institutional custody, highlighting scarcity logic.
🏛️ 3. Impact of regulatory policy implementation
(GENIUS Act) effect persists: After Trump signed the bill, the compliance of stablecoins (1:1 U.S. Treasury collateral) drives structural changes in the market:
New users on decentralized exchanges like XBIT increase by 50% weekly, with trading volume surpassing the peak of the four major chain DEXs, forming a complementary ecosystem of 'compliance + decentralization.'
The total market capitalization of the crypto market exceeds $4 trillion, with ETH rising 20% weekly and XRP gaining 10% in the short term.
Policy execution risk: The Trump family’s stake in the stablecoin company USD1 faces Democratic scrutiny over 'legislative profiteering' and may trigger an investigation.
📉 4. Market sentiment and demand divergence
Retail bearish sentiment heats up:
Binance net active trading volume falls below -$60 million, and the South Korean premium index turns negative, reflecting intensified selling pressure from the Asian retail market.
Coinbase premium index stagnates, and U.S. investors take profits at high prices.
Institutional optimism remains:
OANDA client sentiment shows 97% of traders are net long, but extreme bullishness may indicate short-term pullback risk.
Mexican real estate giant Grupo Murano launches a $10 billion BTC reserve plan, continuing the corporate accumulation trend.
📈 5. Technical analysis and altcoin rotation
Key level contention:
Support levels: $116,200 (immediate support) and $115,500 (20-day moving average); a breach may see a drop to $112,000.
Resistance levels: $120,000–$123,218, with a target of $126,200 after breaking the triangle formation on the four-hour chart.
Altcoin season accelerates: Bitcoin's market cap share falls below 60% (as low as 58.5%), with funds rotating to ETH (up 0.1%), SOL (up 3.61%), and FLR (soaring 23.4%).
⚠️ 6. Risk warnings and short-term outlook
Leverage bubble risk: Open interest increased by $6 billion over two weeks, with funding rates soaring to an annualized 19%; Matrixport warns that high-leverage long positions may face liquidation after the FOMC meeting.
Macroeconomic pressure: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September drops to 60%, with sticky inflation supporting a stronger dollar.
Institutional divergence:
Optimists: Bernstein maintains a year-end target of $150,000; Ledn is bullish up to $136,000–$140,000.
Cautious faction: Standard Chartered warns that if it falls below $112,000, it may decline to $100,000.
💎 Summary: The tug-of-war between whale accumulation and retail selling pressure.
The core logic of the Bitcoin market on July 23 is:
Continuation of policy dividends (GENIUS Act) → Whale accumulation pushes prices up → Retail profit-taking + high leverage liquidation → Funds rotate to altcoins.
Short-term focus:
$115,500–$116,200 support zone defense battle; if stabilized, it may build momentum to attack $120,000;
Leverage liquidation risks before the FOMC meeting (July 30) and developments in White House crypto policy.
Long-term momentum:
Compliance of stablecoins may introduce $2 trillion demand for U.S. Treasuries, solidifying market liquidity.
National/Corporate Bitcoin reserves deepen the 'digital gold' narrative, bullish market structure remains intact. #btc
