⚖️ 1. Policy Game: Fed's hawkish stance vs. White House strategic reserves

  1. Interest rate decisions and internal divergence

  • The Fed maintains interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% (unchanged for the fifth consecutive time), but sees the first dual dissenting votes in 30 years (Waller and Bowman advocating a 25 basis point cut).

  • Powell refuses to commit to a rate cut in September, stating 'data-dependent decisions', causing market rate cut expectations to drop from 68% to below 50% (CME FedWatch data).

  1. White House policy implementation

  • Treasury Bitcoin reserves: Clear use of seized assets (such as Silk Road-related BTC) as reserves, commitment to 'non-essential sales'.

  • CBDC Ban: Permanently prohibits the Fed from issuing central bank digital currency, granting CFTC regulatory authority over the spot market.

  • Contradictory Signals: The Fed claims 'interest rate decisions do not consider government financing needs', but U.S. government annual interest expenses reach $1.1 trillion, with Trump advocating 'a 3% rate cut could save a trillion annually'.


📉 2. Market Dynamics: Whale selling pressure and key level defenses

  1. Price resilience verification

  • Intraday volatility $115,716–$118,800 (CoinGecko), closing at $118,310 (+0.28%), holding the $116,000 support zone.

  • 4% pullback from historical high of $123,218, not triggering 'crash' threshold (≥5% requires a warning).

  1. Analysis of capital movements

  • Whale transfers: $1.2 billion BTC (approximately 10,000 coins) transferred to Binance in a single day, alongside U.S. government transferring 3,940 seized BTC to Coinbase, raising sell-off concerns.

  • Institutional Divergence: Bitcoin ETF ends net outflow (previous day -$85.96 million), but BlackRock's IBIT counter-trend inflow of $34.37 million (SoSoValue) shows long-term confidence is intact.

  1. On-chain support evidence

  • $116,000–$117,500 range detected $2.3 billion buy orders (Ordex), explaining the liquidity base for the rapid rebound after the price drop.

  • Miner positions stable, network hash rate hits a record high of 955.75 EH/s (Glassnode), not following the sell-off.


📊 3. Technical Perspective: Triangle convergence and bull-bear critical points

  1. Patterns and Key Levels

  • Symmetrical triangle: 4-hour chart converging at $117,000 (support) – $118,700 (resistance), volatility dropping to yearly lows, indicating a breakout within 48 hours.

  • Bull-Bear Divide:

    • Upside breakout: Breaking above $118,700 or triggering a short squeeze, target $120,500 (July downtrend line).

    • Downside breakout: Losing $117,000 could test $114,600 (200EMA).

  1. Derivatives Risk

  • Open interest reaches $45.4 billion (above risk threshold of $41.5 billion), funding rate annualized at 19%, high-leverage long liquidation pressures accumulating.


🌐 4. Outlook: PCE and non-farm set August trend

  1. Today's Focus (July 31)

  • Core PCE data: If above previous value of 2.7%, it will strengthen hawkish expectations and suppress risk assets; below expectations may serve as a catalyst for rebound.

  • Non-Farm Payroll report (next day): Changes in unemployment rate directly affect the probability of rate cuts in September, with a threshold of ≥4.5% needed to potentially reverse the Fed's stance.

    💎 Core Conclusion: Tug-of-war between policy and data

    Short-term: $117,000–$118,700 narrow fluctuations, waiting for PCE/non-farm breakthrough;
    Medium-term: White House 'non-sale reserve' commitment + CFTC regulatory implementation solidifies$114,000 bottom support.