📊 1. Price performance and market volatility

  • Stabilizing rebound: Bitcoin gradually rebounds from the July 25 low of $115,152, reaching a daily high of $118,013.60, ultimately closing around $117,541.90, with a 24-hour increase of about 1.98%.

  • Increased volatility: Daily fluctuation exceeded $2,800, mainly due to whale sell-offs and government transfers of Bitcoin causing panic, but end-of-day buying support helped prices recover.

  • Altcoin divergence: Ethereum (ETH) slightly up 0.1%, Solana (SOL) down 7.92%, XRP plummeting 12.4%, with capital rotating significantly towards stablecoins and DeFi protocols.


🐋 2. On-chain anomalies and capital flow

  • Whale sell-off: Galaxy Digital assists 'Bitcoin Era Whales' in a single-day sell-off of over 80,000 BTC (valued at $9 billion), triggering short-term market panic.

  • Government transfer of BTC: The U.S. government will seize 3,940 BTC (approximately $240 million) from 'Silk Road' and transfer it to Coinbase, increasing concerns about selling pressure.

  • Surge in stablecoin demand: Risk aversion drives stablecoin trading volume up, with a 34% month-on-month increase in stablecoin transactions on the XBIT platform, exceeding $63.2 million in a single day.


🌏 3. Policy and macro environment impact

  • Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations rise: The probability of a rate cut in September increased to 68% (previously 52%) due to weak U.S. economic data (core PCE flat, rising unemployment rate).

  • Geopolitical risks: Tensions in the Middle East combined with uncertainties from Trump's tariff policies (effective August 1) suppress risk asset preferences.

  • Regulatory progress: After the enactment of the (GENIUS Act), the process of stabilizing currency compliance accelerates, but the controversy over the 'conflict of interest' regarding the Trump family's holdings in stablecoin companies continues to brew.


📉 4. Technical aspects and market sentiment

  • Key level contest:

    • Support level: $115,000 (bull-bear dividing line), breaking below may test $112,000.

    • Resistance level: $118,500 (psychological barrier), breaking through may challenge the historical high of $123,218.

  • Contradictory sentiment indicators:

    • Greed signal: Fear and Greed Index rises to 75 ('Extreme Greed'), reflecting bullish sentiment among retail investors.

    • Risk warning: Derivatives open interest exceeds $45.4 billion, funding rate annualized at 19%, high risk of leverage bubbles.


💎 Summary: Volatile recovery under selling pressure and policy games.

July 26 market logic chain: Whale sell-off ($9 billion) + government transfer of BTC ($240 million) → price plummets → rate cut expectations + stablecoin risk-averse demand support rebound → leverage liquidation amplifies volatility.

  • Short-term focus:

    • $115,000 support level effectiveness; if stabilized, it could gain momentum to attack $120,000;

    • July 30th Federal Reserve interest rate decision and White House cryptocurrency policy report released.

  • Long-term momentum:

    • Stablecoin compliance may introduce $2 trillion in U.S. Treasury demand, solidifying market foundations;

    • Institutional-level custody (exchange BTC balance at a 5-year low) reinforces scarcity logic.