📉 One, Key Dynamics on July 25, 2025
Significant Price Correction
Bitcoin dropped 2.27%~2.56% in a single day, falling from the $118,000 range to $115,200–$115,555, creating a new weekly low.
Trigger Factors:
Whale Sell-off Warning: Galaxy Digital transferred 3,500 BTC (about $404 million) to exchanges, and another 1,500 BTC moved to unknown wallets, triggering market panic.
Leverage Liquidation Wave: $814 million liquidated across the network within 24 hours, with long positions accounting for 61% (about $542 million) due to sharp price drops triggering high leverage liquidations.
Technical Breakdown: After breaking the key support at $116,000, algorithmic trading programs accelerated selling.
Capital and On-chain Anomalies
ETF Outflows Continue: Bitcoin spot ETF has seen three consecutive days of net outflows, totaling $285 million (Fidelity FBTC accounts for a large portion), with significant profit-taking pressure from institutions.
Whale Holdings Reduction: The number of addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC decreased by 2.7% in 10 days, the largest drop in six months, partly from ‘Satoshi Era’ old wallets.
Exchange Inflows Surge: Daily net inflows reached the highest since July 2024, miners simultaneously sold 16,000 BTC, exacerbating short-term selling pressure.
Market Sentiment Deterioration
Fear and Greed Index dropped to 66 (previous week's peak was 79), Altcoin Season Index declined 11.9% in 24 hours, with funds not shifting to high-risk assets.
Derivative Indicators Warning: Open Interest (OI) reached $45.4 billion, far exceeding the risk threshold of $41.5 billion, with annualized funding rate at 19%, raising leverage bubble risk.
📅 Two, Market Review This Week (July 21-25)
🔮 Three, Short-term Forecast and Focus
Technical Key Levels
Support Area:
$115,000–$116,000 (This week's low + Dense Buy Orders Area), if broken, may test $112,000 (Fibonacci Retracement Level).
$102,000 (Lower Boundary of Weekly Channel), if broken, the mid-term Bullish Structure will be challenged.
Resistance Level: $118,000–$120,000 (Psychological Barrier + 7-Day Moving Average), a breakthrough requires accompanying volume.
Major Event Risks (July 30)
Federal Reserve Rate Decision: The probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to 60%, and if hawkish signals are released, it may suppress risk assets.
White House Cryptocurrency Policy Report: Will disclose the U.S. government's Bitcoin reserve management plan and regulatory framework details; if the attitude is positive, it may serve as a rebound catalyst.
U.S. Tariffs Take Effect (August 1): Global trade tensions may suppress market risk appetite.
Long/Short Momentum Assessment
Bullish Factors:
On-chain MVRV Indicator only 1.15 (below the selling pressure threshold of 1.35), implying a 20%~25% upside potential.
Institutional Custody Demand Strengthened (Exchange Balances at 5-Year Low), long-term scarcity logic remains unchanged.
Bearish Risks:
Leverage Long Positions Overcrowded, Derivative Liquidation Pressure Not Fully Released.
If ETF fund outflows continue or resonate with whale sell-offs, it may test $110,000 support.
💎 Summary: Consolidation Period Under Policy and Leverage Resonance
This Week's Logical Chain: Regulatory Implementation (GENIUS Bill) → Profit Taking + Funds Rotating to Altcoins → Whale Sell-off + ETF Outflow → Technical Breakdown Triggering Leverage Liquidation.
Operational Suggestions:
Short-term: Focus on the $115,000 support defense, if stabilized, can position for a rebound (target $120,000); if broken, observe until $112,000 for reassessment.
Medium to Long-term: A pullback to $105,000–$110,000 is viewed as an accumulation opportunity; the core drivers of the bull market (institutional accumulation, stablecoin compliance) remain intact.
Monitoring Indicators:
July 30 Federal Reserve Statement Language, White House Report Details;
Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows and Exchange Net Inflow Changes.
