📊 1. Price Performance and Market Structure

  • Narrow Fluctuation Stabilization: Bitcoin price fluctuates around $118,000 (intraday range $117,300–$120,000), with a slight increase of 0.28% over 24 hours, a small rebound from the previous day's low of $116,788. Early trading saw institutional funds pushing prices up, but selling pressure at the end of the day led to a drop below the critical support of $118,000, indicating a risk of correction.

  • Altcoins Strongly Diverting Funds:

    • Ethereum (ETH) rises 3.78% to $3,750, with a weekly gain of 26%; XRP and Solana (SOL) rise 2% and 3% respectively, while Dogecoin (DOGE) rises over 5% against the trend.

    • Bitcoin Market Capitalization Dominance fell below 60% in early trading (lowest at 59.8%), the first time since March, then rebounded to 60.1%, reflecting a faster shift of funds to high-volatility altcoins.

  • Liquidation Risk Intensifies: Within 24 hours, the number of liquidations across the network reached 184,000 to 200,000, with a liquidation amount of $814 million, and long positions accounting for 61% of the losses (approximately $542 million), mainly due to a sharp price drop triggering high-leverage liquidations.


🐋 2. On-chain Anomalies and Institutional Behavior

  • Significant Selling Pressure from Whales and Miners:

    • On July 15, the exchange saw a single-day inflow of 81,000 BTC (the highest since February), with large transfers (>100 BTC) surging from 13,000 to 58,000, while miners sold 16,000 BTC during the same period.

    • Miner wallet balances fell from 68,000 BTC on June 26 to 65,000 BTC, further validating high-level cash-out behavior.

  • Institution Long-term Holding Signal:

    • 7,743 BTC (approximately $916 million) transferred from Coinbase to an unknown wallet, suspected institutional accumulation.

    • Exchange Bitcoin balances dropped to a 5-year low, with more BTC moving to cold wallets or institutional custody (like ETFs), indicating increased confidence in long-term holding.


📉 3. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

  • Key Level Contest:

    • Support Levels: $116,500 (short-term technical support) and $115,600 (20-day moving average), breaching these may lead to a dip towards $112,000.

    • Resistance Levels: $120,000–$123,218 zone under pressure, with a breakthrough target pointing to $135,729.

  • Overheated Sentiment Warning:

    • Bitcoin accounts for 43.06% of social media crypto discussions (historical peak), Santiment notes that such peaks often signal short-term pullbacks.

    • RSI rises to 70.54 (overbought zone), but the on-chain MVRV indicator is only 1.15 (below the selling pressure threshold of 1.35), implying a potential 20%–25% upward space.


🌏 4. Policy and Macro Impact

  • Japan's tax reform accelerates: Following the ruling party's election defeat, the opposition is pushing to reduce the crypto asset tax rate from 55% to 20.315%, which may stimulate fund inflows into Japan's market (the fifth largest trading market globally).

  • Aftermath of US Regulation: (GENIUS Act) Following the signing, the market exhibited a 'buy the expectation, sell the reality' effect, with short-term profit-taking leading to liquidity drying up, but long-term benefits for stablecoin compliance and institutional market entry.

  • Macroeconomic Pressure Not Eased: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September dropped to 60%, with sticky inflation supporting a stronger dollar, suppressing risk assets.


🔮 5. Market Outlook and Institutional Perspectives

  • Short-term Divergence:

    • Cautious Camp: Standard Chartered warns that if Bitcoin fails to hold the $90,000 support, it could trigger a 10% correction to $80,000; Santiment suggests waiting for 'market euphoria to subside' before re-entering.

    • Optimistic Camp: CryptoQuant points out that no 'market overheating' signals have yet appeared, Galaxy Digital believes the current situation is a healthy consolidation, with potential for an upward movement before the end of the month.

  • Altcoin Season Activation Signal: Bitcoin's decline in dominance combined with fund rotation, Ethereum's ecosystem becoming active (Gas fees rising) and mid-cap tokens rising may trigger a structural altcoin market.


💎 Summary: Market Reconstruction Amidst Fluctuation

On July 21, the core logic of the Bitcoin market is:

Policy Implementation Aftermath (Japan Tax Reform + US Bill) → Miners/Whales Cashing Out at High Levels → Funds Rotating to Altcoins → Overheated Sentiment Triggers Leverage Liquidation

  • Short-term Focus:

    • Defending the support zone of $115,600–$116,500; if stabilized, it may rally again towards $120,000;

    • Progress of Japan's crypto tax reform and US pension fund market entry details.

  • Long-term Support:

    • Exchange balances at new lows and institutional accumulation indicate increasing scarcity;

    • Compliant stablecoins may attract $2 trillion in US Treasury demand, solidifying the market foundation.#BTC