📊 1. Price performance and market corrections

  • Stabilizing fluctuations: Bitcoin price fluctuates around $118,000 (daily range $117,300–$120,000), slightly rebounding from the previous day's low of $116,788, with a 24-hour increase of 0.28%. Previously, due to profit-taking after the signing of the (GENIUS Act), Bitcoin temporarily fell from a high of $120,000.

  • Altcoin differentiation:

    • Ethereum (ETH) rises against the trend by 2.59%, breaking through $3,600;

    • Dogecoin (DOGE) rises over 5%, TRON (TRX) slightly up, but mainstream coins like XRP and SOL experience widespread declines.

  • Mass liquidations surge: The number of liquidations within 24 hours reaches 184,000–200,000 people, with liquidated amounts at $814 million, of which long positions account for 61% (approximately $542 million), primarily due to a sharp price drop triggering high-leverage liquidations.


🏛️ 2. Regulatory policy implementation and market response

  • (GENIUS Act) officially takes effect: Trump signed the act on July 18, core contents include:

    • Stablecoin compliance: Mandatory 1:1 dollar asset backing (U.S. Treasuries, deposits, etc.), allowing compliant foreign stablecoins to enter the U.S. market.

    • Regulatory authority delineation: CFTC leads digital commodity regulation, SEC only governs security-like tokens.

    • National strategic reserves: Establish 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' and 'National Digital Asset Reserve', prohibiting the Fed from issuing CBDCs without authorization.

  • 'Buy the expectation, sell the reality' effect: After the act was signed, Bitcoin fell instead of rising, as some institutions sold off on the good news, leading to a short-term liquidity crunch and triggering a $3,000 price fluctuation.


  • Whale transfers and institutional accumulation:

    • 7,743 BTC (approximately $916 million) transferred from Coinbase to an unknown wallet, suspected institutional accumulation.

    • BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) holdings reach 731,515 BTC, with a market value of $87 billion, setting a new historical high.

  • Funds rotating to altcoins: Ethereum ETF attracts $402.5 million in a single day, Bitcoin's dominance (market cap share) drops to 64.07%, with a clear trend of funds shifting to high-volatility assets.

  • DeFi platform growth: XBIT decentralized exchange sees a 50% week-on-week increase in new user registrations, with trading volume exceeding the peak of the four major chain DEXs.


📉 4. Technical analysis and market sentiment

  • Key level competition:

    • Support level: $115,600 (20-day moving average) serves as the boundary between bulls and bears; if lost, a drop to $112,000 is feared;

    • Resistance level: The $120,000–$123,218 range is under pressure; once broken, the target is $135,729.

  • Indicator signal differentiation:

    • Bearish signal: Daily chart forms a 'bearish engulfing' pattern, RSI is overbought (70.54) and needs to correct and digest;

    • Bullish support: On-chain MVRV indicator is only 1.15 (below the selling pressure threshold of 1.35), implying a 20%–25% upside potential.

  • Social sentiment overheated: Bitcoin accounts for 43.06% of social media crypto discussions, historical data shows such peaks often indicate short-term corrections.


⚠️ 5. Risks and macro environment

  • Policy enforcement risks:

    • The Trump family is reported to hold shares in the stablecoin company USD1, raising concerns from Democrats about 'legislative profiteering,' with subsequent investigations potentially impacting market confidence.

    • Hong Kong Monetary Authority implements a 'by-invitation' licensing system for stablecoins, strictly controlling compliance thresholds.

  • Macroeconomic pressures persist:

    • The probability of a Fed rate cut in September drops to 60%, with inflation stickiness supporting a stronger dollar;

    • The Bank of England requires banks to test their ability to tolerate dollar risks, reflecting global concerns about U.S. financial stability.

  • Security incident: Indian exchange CoinDCX was hacked for $44.2 million (user assets unaffected).


💎 Summary: Consolidation and accumulation after policy dividends

July 20 Bitcoin market core logic: Regulatory implementation triggers profit-taking → High leverage liquidations amplify volatility → Funds rotate to altcoins + Long-term institutional accumulation remains unchanged.

  • Short-term focus:

    • Defense of the $115,600 support level, if stabilized, further attempts to attack $120,000;

    • Progress on Trump’s executive order for 'pension funds entering the market' and the details of U.S. Treasury anchoring stablecoins.

  • Long-term support:

    • Stablecoin compliance may attract $2 trillion in U.S. Treasury demand, injecting fundamental liquidity into the crypto market;

    • National Bitcoin reserve plan and ETF fund inflows, strengthening the bull market structure. #BTC