中本聪大学

Guo Hongjie - Founder of Nakamoto University
What mindset do we have when we join the blockchain industry? What has made us believe and persist for so long? To this day, does our original intention and what we desire still exist? If we had the chance to choose again, would we still make the same choice?
As time flies to the present, the tide gradually recedes, and illusions slowly dissipate. We are gradually emerging from the revelry of yesterday's indulgence. Although we still have reluctance, confusion, and attachment, we will ultimately face reality - "What exactly is blockchain? What can blockchain do? How much value can blockchain bring? What does blockchain have to do with me?"

📊 1. 价格表现与市场结构
窄幅震荡企稳：比特币价格在118,000美元附近波动（日内区间117,300–120,000美元），24小时微涨0.28%，较前一日低点116,788美元小幅回升。早盘机构资金推动上涨，但尾盘抛压导致跌破118,000美元关键支撑，暗示回调风险。山寨币强势分流资金：以太坊（ETH）上涨3.78%至3,750美元，周涨幅达26%；XRP、Solana（SOL）分别涨2%和3%，狗狗币（DOGE）逆势涨超5%。比特币市值占比（Dominance）早盘跌破60%（最低至59.8%），为3月以来首次，后回升至60.1%，反映资金加速转向高波动山寨币。爆仓风险加剧：24小时内全网爆仓人数达18.4万–20万人，爆仓金额8.14亿美元，多单损失占比61%（约5.42亿美元），主因价格急跌触发高杠杆强平。

🐋 2. 链上异动与机构行为
巨鲸与矿工抛压显著：7月15日交易所单日流入81,000枚BTC（2月以来最高），其中大额转账（>100 BTC）从1.3万枚飙升至5.8万枚，矿工同期抛售16,000枚BTC。矿工钱包余额自6月26日从68,000 BTC降至65,000 BTC，进一步验证高位套现行为。机构长期持仓信号：7,743枚BTC（约9.16亿美元）从Coinbase转入未知钱包，疑似机构增持。交易所比特币余额降至5年新低，更多BTC转入冷钱包或机构托管（如ETF），显示长期持有信心增强。

📉 3. 技术面与市场情绪
关键位争夺：支撑位：$116,500（短期技术支撑）与$115,600（20日均线），失守恐下探$112,000。阻力位：$120,000–$123,218区间承压，突破目标指向$135,729。情绪过热警示：比特币占社交媒体加密讨论量达43.06%（历史峰值），Santiment指出此类峰值常预示短期回调。RSI升至70.54（超买区），但链上MVRV指标仅1.15（低于抛压阈值1.35），隐含20%–25%上涨空间。

🌏 4. 政策与宏观影响
日本税改加速：自民党选举失利后，反对党推动加密资产税率从55%降至20.315%，可能刺激日本市场（全球第五大交易市场）资金流入。美国监管余波：《GENIUS法案》签署后市场呈现“买预期卖现实”效应，短期获利了结导致流动性枯歇，但长期利好稳定币合规化及机构入市。宏观压力未消：美联储9月降息概率降至60%，通胀黏性支撑美元走强，压制风险资产。

🔮 5. 市场展望与机构观点
短期分歧：谨慎派：渣打银行警告若比特币失守9万美元支撑，可能触发10%回调至8万美元4；Santiment建议等待“市场狂热消退”后再入场。乐观派：CryptoQuant指出尚未出现“市场过热”信号，Galaxy Digital认为当前为健康盘整，月底前仍有上涨机会。山寨季启动信号：比特币主导地位下滑叠加资金轮动，以太坊生态活跃（Gas费回升）及中型市值代币跟涨，或开启结构性山寨行情。

💎 总结：震荡中的市场重构
7月21日比特币市场核心逻辑为：
政策落地余波（日本税改+美国法案）→ 矿工/鲸鱼高位套现 → 资金轮动至山寨币 → 情绪过热触发杠杆清算
短期焦点：$115,600–$116,500支撑区保卫战，若企稳则蓄力再攻12万美元；日本加密税改进程及美国养老金入市细则进展。长期支撑：交易所余额新低与机构增持指向稀缺性加剧；合规稳定币或吸引2万亿美元美债需求，夯实市场基础。#BTC

📊 1. Price performance and market corrections
Stabilizing fluctuations: Bitcoin price fluctuates around $118,000 (daily range $117,300–$120,000), slightly rebounding from the previous day's low of $116,788, with a 24-hour increase of 0.28%. Previously, due to profit-taking after the signing of the (GENIUS Act), Bitcoin temporarily fell from a high of $120,000.

Altcoin differentiation:
Ethereum (ETH) rises against the trend by 2.59%, breaking through $3,600;

Dogecoin (DOGE) rises over 5%, TRON (TRX) slightly up, but mainstream coins like XRP and SOL experience widespread declines.
Mass liquidations surge: The number of liquidations within 24 hours reaches 184,000–200,000 people, with liquidated amounts at $814 million, of which long positions account for 61% (approximately $542 million), primarily due to a sharp price drop triggering high-leverage liquidations.

"From 99% certainty it's a scam to 60% calling for daddy, every transaction you make is betting on the global table"
Core setting → A large slap-in-the-face scene
Imagine the whole village watching a mysterious person named Satoshi making inventions:
🔮
He set a flag
:
"My code system can replace banks! Total supply of 21 million will never exceed!"
👴
Villagers' reactions
:
Old Wang: "Fraud! Not worth as much as my pig!" (Prior belief: 99% failure)
Aunt Li: "Is this a pyramid scheme?" (Prior belief: 95% failure)
First slap in the face: The pizza incident
🍕

Key evidence

Ⅰ. The core framework of Bayesianism
Belief = Prior Probability × New Evidence
Human cognition is like a probability engine:
Prior belief: Initial assumption based on historical experience
Likelihood: The strength of support of new evidence for the hypothesis
Posterior belief
（Posterior）：Revised cognition after evidence iteration
The rise of Bitcoin is an epic practical application of this formula.
Ⅱ. The prior belief of Bitcoin: The rebellious hypothesis of cypherpunks
Initial prior probability (2009):
P (Bitcoin succeeds) ≈ 0.001
Assumption foundation:
math
\small
\text{Decentralized currency} = f(\text{Cryptography} + \text{Game Theory} + \text{Anti-authoritarianism})

Who prints Bitcoin? Does the central bank have control over it?
answer:
❌ No one prints! No central bank! No government backing!
It is like a "math game" spontaneously played by netizens around the world. The rules are all written in the code and no one can change them.
How was Bitcoin “born”?
Mining by "miners":
It's not about carrying a hoe and digging the ground, but about using a computer to solve math problems (super difficult ones!).
Whoever calculates correctly first can package the new transaction into a "block" and be rewarded with several new bitcoins (the current reward is about 3.125, which is halved every four years).
This process is called mining, and the computer computing power is the "mining machine".

📉 1. Price performance and market pullback
Pullback from peak: Bitcoin fell from a high of over $120,000 to $116,788 during the day, finally stabilizing around $118,000, with a 24-hour decline of 1.13%-2% (data varies across platforms).

Mainstream coins generally decline: Ethereum (ETH) falls 1.74%-1.88% (reported at $3,549-$3,550), XRP drops 4.2%-4.9%, Solana (SOL) down 2.16%; Dogecoin (DOGE) rises against the trend by 4.28%-4.82%, Ethereum Classic (ETC) surges 8.79%.
Liquidation surge: The number of liquidations across the network reached 185,000-200,000 within 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $814 million, of which short positions accounted for 61% (about $360 million), and long positions 39%.

🏛️ 1. Major Breakthroughs in Regulatory Policy
Three major bills passed the House of Representatives: The U.S. House passed the (GENIUS Act) (stablecoin reserve and audit requirements) with an overwhelming majority (308:122), the (CLARITY Act) (clarifying SEC/CFTC regulatory division), and the (Anti-CBDC Act) (prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing digital currency without authorization). The three bills have been submitted for Trump's signature and are expected to take effect on the same day.

Policy impact:
Stablecoin compliance: Mandatory requirements for stablecoin issuers to fully collateralize with highly liquid assets like U.S. Treasury bonds, which may push stablecoin issuers to become the third-largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries (potential demand reaches $2 trillion).

📉 1. Price and Market Performance
Stabilizing fluctuations: Bitcoin price fluctuates around $118,000 (intraday range $117,300–$118,800), slightly rebounding from the previous day's low of $116,300 but still below the historical high of $123,236.
Aftermath of liquidations: The number of liquidations across the network reached 122,000 within 24 hours, with a liquidation amount of $462 million (approximately 3.31 billion RMB), and the proportion of long position losses remains high.
Capital diversion: Some funds are shifting to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), with ETH rising over 7% in a single day due to ETF fund inflows, and SOL rising 5% due to institutional accumulation.

⚡ 1. Market Performance and Price Volatility
Plunge Market: Bitcoin plummeted sharply from the historical high of $123,236 on July 14, with a daily drop of over 5%, hitting a low of $116,300, before partially rebounding to the range of $117,200–$118,000.

Contagion Effect: Mainstream tokens such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) also saw a synchronized drop, with declines generally reaching 4%–8%.
Liquidation Scale: The number of liquidated contracts across the network surged to 135,800, with total liquidation amounting to $493 million (approximately 3.54 billion RMB), of which nearly 80% were long position losses.

⚙️ 2. Analysis of Plunge Causes

Today, let's talk about the most fundamental differences between Bitcoin and traditional money (RMB, US dollars) in "human language", as simple and clear as chatting 👇
🌍Difference 1: Who manages this money?
Traditional currency (RMB/USD)
:
→ There is a "big boss" in charge! For example, the People's Bank of China manages RMB, and the Federal Reserve manages USD.
→ The boss can print money if he wants, and if too much is issued, it may become "hair" (for example, pork prices have risen).
→ You pay with WeChat? In fact, the bank is keeping accounts behind the scenes!
Bitcoin
:
→
No boss!

Not managed by any country or bank.

📈 One, historic price breakthrough
Record high

Bitcoin first broke through the $120,000 mark, reaching a maximum of $122,562.4 during the Asian trading session (some platforms reported $122,600), with a 24-hour increase of 3.9%~4.5%, and a year-to-date increase of over 29%.
Key resistance breakout: Successfully standing above the psychological barrier of $120,000, technical patterns open up upside space, targeting $125,000~$135,000.
Market total market value hits new high
The overall market value of cryptocurrencies reached $3.78 trillion, growing 4.9% in 24 hours, with Bitcoin accounting for about 65%, and total market value surpassing $2.38 trillion (the fifth largest asset globally).

📈 One, Price trends and market performance
Historical highs and corrections

Record high: On July 12, Bitcoin first broke $118,000 (peaking at $118,856), with a year-to-date increase of over 25%, total market value exceeding $2.2 trillion (fifth in global assets).
Next day volatility: On July 13, Asian session quoted $117,757, slightly down 0.3% from the previous day's high, but still holding the key support at $117,000.
Liquidation wave: Severe price fluctuations caused 230,000 people to be liquidated, with total losses of $540 million, of which 89% were short positions.

📊 One, Price Performance and Market Overview
Slight pullback after historical new high
Reached a high of $118,000: On July 11, Bitcoin broke the historical record to $117,666 (some platforms reported $118,868), with a 24-hour increase of 5.6%, a cumulative increase of over 20% this year.
Next day pullback: On July 12, Asian session quote at $117,645, down about 0.3% from the previous day's high, but still holding the $117,000 key support level.
Liquidation wave: Severe price volatility leads to 230,000 liquidations, with total losses of $540 million, of which 89% are short positions.

📈 1. Price Breakthrough and Market Performance
Historical New Highs and Volatility
Highest Reached $112,288 (some platforms report $112,000), breaking Bitcoin's 16-year historical record, with a 24-hour increase of 2.85%~3%, accumulating a 19% rise this year.
Liquidation Wave: Severe price fluctuations lead to 108,800 liquidations, with total losses of $510 million, of which shorts account for over 70%.
Total Market Value Exceeds $2.2 Trillion, Ranking Fifth Among Global Assets (Only Behind Gold, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple).

Correlation with Related Markets
Tech Stocks Propel: Nvidia's market value broke $4 trillion intraday, driving the Nasdaq to new highs, with increased risk appetite boosting Bitcoin simultaneously.

📈 I. Summary of Key Dynamics on July 10
Price Breaks Historical Highs

Reached a high of $112,000: Bitcoin first broke this level on July 10, rising 3% in 24 hours, with a cumulative increase of 19% this year, but later retreated to around $111,300.
Liquidation Wave: Extreme price fluctuations caused 108,800 liquidations, with total losses of $510 million, and shorts accounted for over 70%.
Core Upward Drivers
Policy Easing Expectations: New SEC Chair Paul Atkins promotes crypto regulatory reform, plans to implement new policies in July-August, aiming to make the US a global crypto asset center.

📊 One, Summary of Key Market Dynamics on July 8
Price Trends and Market Reactions
Support Level: $107,500 (dense area of 16,800 on-chain addresses);
Resistance Level: $110,600 (Fibonacci + Bollinger Band upper band repeatedly suppressing rebounds).
Intra-day decline: Bitcoin dropped below $108,000 critical support, reporting $108,224 (daily drop of 0.5%), mainly affected by uncertainty from Trump's tariff policy impacting risk sentiment.
Low volatility: Trading volume shrank to a 9-month low, implied volatility is close to historical lows, and market sentiment is highly cautious.

📈 One, Price Trends: Under Pressure After Fluctuating Upwards
Intraday Volatility
Opening Quote: Bitcoin reported $108,650 in the Asian session, reaching a high of $109,803 during the day (breaking key resistance), but fell back to $108,957 in the afternoon, with a 24-hour increase narrowing to 0.64%~0.77%.
Volatility Range: Throughout the day fluctuating in the $105,344–$109,803 range, trading volume shrank by 23% compared to the previous day, forming a 'volume-price divergence' pattern.
Key Position Offense and Defense
Position Level Significance Support Level
$107,200–$108,000
4-hour upward trend line, tested multiple times without breaking

Resistance Level
$109,300–$110,600
Fibonacci 0.618 Retracement Level + Bollinger Band Upper Band

🐋 1. Whale activities and market reactions
Wallet dormant for 14 years activated
Two miner wallets from 2011 suddenly moved 20,000 BTC (approximately $2.18 billion), with a cost of only $0.78 per coin, currently appreciating over 108,000 times.
Market worries about potential selling pressure: If all are liquidated, it may trigger short-term volatility. Coinbase executives pointed out that transfers could be due to private key leaks or hacking attacks, which may impact the market regardless of motivation.
Historical holding background
This whale accumulated 200,000 BTC through block rewards (1% of circulation), equivalent to 13.4% of MicroStrategy's holdings.

📊 I. Summary of key market dynamics on July 5
Price trends and volatility
Volatility hits a historic low (30% weekly implied volatility), trading volume shrinks to a 9-month low, reflecting strong investor wait-and-see sentiment.
Altcoins fall broadly: DOGE drops over 5%, SOL falls over 3%, ETH drops nearly 3%.
Intraday performance: Bitcoin reported $109,132 (Asian session), down 0.88% from the previous day's high of $110,101, trading within a narrow range of $105,344–$108,280, down 0.3% over 24 hours.
Market characteristics:

Whale movements trigger market fluctuations
One of the wallets purchased 10,000 BTC in 2011 at $0.78 each, currently valued at over $1 billion.