🐋 1. Whale activities and market reactions

  1. Wallet dormant for 14 years activated

    • Two miner wallets from 2011 suddenly moved 20,000 BTC (approximately $2.18 billion), with a cost of only $0.78 per coin, currently appreciating over 108,000 times.

    • Market worries about potential selling pressure: If all are liquidated, it may trigger short-term volatility. Coinbase executives pointed out that transfers could be due to private key leaks or hacking attacks, which may impact the market regardless of motivation.

  2. Historical holding background

    • This whale accumulated 200,000 BTC through block rewards (1% of circulation), equivalent to 13.4% of MicroStrategy's holdings.

    • In the past year, 'whales' have sold 500,000 BTC, but institutions like ETFs have absorbed 900,000 BTC in the same period, forming a hedge.

  1. Continuation of sideways movement

    • BTC quote: $107,886 (24-hour slight decline of 0.20%), volatility range narrowed to $105,344–$108,280, trading volume dropped to a 9-month low.

    • Key level contention:

      Position horizontal market significance resistance level

      $110,600

      Bollinger Band upper limit, breaking through opens up upward space

      Support level

      $107,200

      4-hour chart rising trend line, falling below may trigger a pullback

      Strong and weak boundary

      $108,600

      Near current price, determining short-term direction

  2. Technical signal divergence

    • Bullish pattern: Daily line forms a third descending channel breakout structure. If the previous two patterns (end of 2024, beginning of 2025) are repeated, it may impact $120,000.

    • Bearish signal:

  • 30-minute RSI top divergence + MACD death cross, short-term momentum weakening;

  • Volatility hits a 21-month low (7-day volatility 0.79%), implied directional choice is approaching.

💼 3. Market structure and capital flow

  1. Institutional holdings strengthened

    • Spot ETF: BlackRock's IBIT holding market value reached $76.5 billion (net inflow of $4.6 billion in June), MicroStrategy holds 597,000 BTC (3% of circulation).

    • National accumulation: El Salvador holds over 6,228 BTC, Bhutan holds 12,000 BTC (40% of GDP).

  2. Cautious derivatives market

    • Low leverage environment: The perpetual contract funding rate is only 0.0035%, with stagnant open contracts reflecting a downturn in speculative sentiment.

Altcoin leverage rises: ETH/SOL open interest increased by 68%/115% year-on-year, but funding rates are lower than Bitcoin, indicating a shift in risk preference towards low-volatility assets.

🏛️ 4. Policy and regulatory dynamics

  1. Expectations for 'Cryptocurrency Week' in the US

    • The Speaker of the House announced July 14–18 as 'Cryptocurrency Week', during which the stablecoin bill (requiring 100% reserves) and anti-CBDC monitoring measures will be discussed.

  2. Impact of Trump policies

    • Tariff risk: The exemption period ends on July 9, and if tariffs of 10%-70% are imposed on non-agreement countries, it may suppress risk assets.

    • Strategic reserve deepening: 200,000 seized BTC included in permanent banned sale reserves (6% of circulation), long-term supply reduction.


🔮 5. Outlook and operational strategies

  1. Short-term directional catalysts

    • Upward breakout: If it holds above $108,600 and breaks through $110,600 with volume, the target is $116,000–$120,000 (seasonal patterns + technical formations).

    • Downside risk: Falling below $107,200 may trigger $2.67 billion in long liquidations, with a pullback target of $102,000–$104,600.

  2. Mid to long-term momentum

    • Liquidity expectations: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 53%. If this occurs, it could push BTC to $135,000–$160,000.

    • Policy institutionalization: If the US 'Federal + State Reserve' framework is established, it will attract sovereign funds.

  3. Operational recommendations

    Strategy trigger conditions target/stop-loss breakthrough to chase long

    Daily close > $110,600

    $116,000, stop-loss $107,200

    Pullback layout

    Stabilization at $104,600

    $109,300, stop-loss $103,000

    Risk hedging

    Allocate ETH (95% probability of staking ETF approval)

    Diversified volatility

💎 Summary: On July 6, the market is in a game between 'whale disturbances' and 'policy eve':

  • Key to breakthrough: Breaking through $110,600 will activate a technical bull market, targeting $120,000; if there is significant selling pressure from whales or tariff escalation, guard against a deep pullback to $102,000.

  • Core observation: Legislative progress of Cryptocurrency Week, subsequent movements of whales, and the strength of the $107,200 support! 🔍#BTC