🐋 1. Whale activities and market reactions
Wallet dormant for 14 years activated
Two miner wallets from 2011 suddenly moved 20,000 BTC (approximately $2.18 billion), with a cost of only $0.78 per coin, currently appreciating over 108,000 times.
Market worries about potential selling pressure: If all are liquidated, it may trigger short-term volatility. Coinbase executives pointed out that transfers could be due to private key leaks or hacking attacks, which may impact the market regardless of motivation.
Historical holding background
This whale accumulated 200,000 BTC through block rewards (1% of circulation), equivalent to 13.4% of MicroStrategy's holdings.
In the past year, 'whales' have sold 500,000 BTC, but institutions like ETFs have absorbed 900,000 BTC in the same period, forming a hedge.
📉 2. Price trends and technical analysis
Continuation of sideways movement
BTC quote: $107,886 (24-hour slight decline of 0.20%), volatility range narrowed to $105,344–$108,280, trading volume dropped to a 9-month low.
Key level contention:
Position horizontal market significance resistance level
$110,600
Bollinger Band upper limit, breaking through opens up upward space
Support level
$107,200
4-hour chart rising trend line, falling below may trigger a pullback
Strong and weak boundary
$108,600
Near current price, determining short-term direction
Technical signal divergence
Bullish pattern: Daily line forms a third descending channel breakout structure. If the previous two patterns (end of 2024, beginning of 2025) are repeated, it may impact $120,000.
Bearish signal:
30-minute RSI top divergence + MACD death cross, short-term momentum weakening;
Volatility hits a 21-month low (7-day volatility 0.79%), implied directional choice is approaching.
💼 3. Market structure and capital flow
Institutional holdings strengthened
Spot ETF: BlackRock's IBIT holding market value reached $76.5 billion (net inflow of $4.6 billion in June), MicroStrategy holds 597,000 BTC (3% of circulation).
National accumulation: El Salvador holds over 6,228 BTC, Bhutan holds 12,000 BTC (40% of GDP).
Cautious derivatives market
Low leverage environment: The perpetual contract funding rate is only 0.0035%, with stagnant open contracts reflecting a downturn in speculative sentiment.
Altcoin leverage rises: ETH/SOL open interest increased by 68%/115% year-on-year, but funding rates are lower than Bitcoin, indicating a shift in risk preference towards low-volatility assets.
🏛️ 4. Policy and regulatory dynamics
Expectations for 'Cryptocurrency Week' in the US
The Speaker of the House announced July 14–18 as 'Cryptocurrency Week', during which the stablecoin bill (requiring 100% reserves) and anti-CBDC monitoring measures will be discussed.
Impact of Trump policies
Tariff risk: The exemption period ends on July 9, and if tariffs of 10%-70% are imposed on non-agreement countries, it may suppress risk assets.
Strategic reserve deepening: 200,000 seized BTC included in permanent banned sale reserves (6% of circulation), long-term supply reduction.
🔮 5. Outlook and operational strategies
Short-term directional catalysts
Upward breakout: If it holds above $108,600 and breaks through $110,600 with volume, the target is $116,000–$120,000 (seasonal patterns + technical formations).
Downside risk: Falling below $107,200 may trigger $2.67 billion in long liquidations, with a pullback target of $102,000–$104,600.
Mid to long-term momentum
Liquidity expectations: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is 53%. If this occurs, it could push BTC to $135,000–$160,000.
Policy institutionalization: If the US 'Federal + State Reserve' framework is established, it will attract sovereign funds.
Operational recommendations
Strategy trigger conditions target/stop-loss breakthrough to chase long
Daily close > $110,600
$116,000, stop-loss $107,200
Pullback layout
Stabilization at $104,600
$109,300, stop-loss $103,000
Risk hedging
Allocate ETH (95% probability of staking ETF approval)
Diversified volatility
💎 Summary: On July 6, the market is in a game between 'whale disturbances' and 'policy eve':
Key to breakthrough: Breaking through $110,600 will activate a technical bull market, targeting $120,000; if there is significant selling pressure from whales or tariff escalation, guard against a deep pullback to $102,000.
Core observation: Legislative progress of Cryptocurrency Week, subsequent movements of whales, and the strength of the $107,200 support! 🔍#BTC