📊 One, Summary of Key Market Dynamics on July 8
Price Trends and Market Reactions
Support Level: $107,500 (dense area of 16,800 on-chain addresses);
Resistance Level: $110,600 (Fibonacci + Bollinger Band upper band repeatedly suppressing rebounds).
Intra-day decline: Bitcoin dropped below $108,000 critical support, reporting $108,224 (daily drop of 0.5%), mainly affected by uncertainty from Trump's tariff policy impacting risk sentiment.
Low volatility: Trading volume shrank to a 9-month low, implied volatility is close to historical lows, and market sentiment is highly cautious.
Key Level Contest:
Policy and Geopolitical Impacts
The US 'Cryptocurrency Week' (July 14-18) will advance three key bills, including (Stablecoin Accountability Act) (requiring 100% reserves) and anti-CBDC monitoring measures.
The SEC delayed Fidelity's Solana ETF approval but requested the applicant to resubmit documents by the end of July, which may accelerate the process.
Announced tariffs of 25%-40% on 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, originally set to take effect on July 9, but postponed to August 1 and stated to be 'not 100% certain', increasing market caution.
Threatening additional tariffs on 'countries aligned with BRICS policies', escalating global trade risks.
Trump's Tariff Policy:
Regulatory Progress:
On-chain and Technical Signals
The daily chart shows a symmetrical triangle consolidation, with short-term support on the 4-hour chart at $107,000. A break below could trigger a deep correction.
MACD death cross + KDJ oversold not reversed, short-term momentum is weak.
Whale activity: Two dormant miner wallets for 14 years transferred 20,000 BTC (cost $0.78 each), valued at $2.18 billion, raising concerns about selling pressure.
Technical Structure:
Funds and Sentiment Divergence
Institutional Holdings Stabilized: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings reached $76.5 billion, with a net inflow of $4.6 billion in June.
Derivatives Cautious: Perpetual contract funding rate only 0.0035%, open interest $10 billion, high leverage exacerbates volatility risks.
Concerns About Insufficient Demand: Miners and long-term holders are selling more than new buyer demand, spot buying is weak.
🔮 Two, Future Trend Predictions: Short-term and Mid-term Scenarios
⚖️ Short-term (1-2 weeks): Policy and liquidation game dominate
Scenario-driven factors price target bullish breakout
✅ Stabilizing above $108,500 and breaking out with volume above $110,600;
✅ 'Crypto Week' bill passed for stablecoin compliance;
✅ Large whales not selling + seasonal pattern (average increase of 9.1% in July).
$112,000–$116,000
(Short liquidation triggered)
Deep Correction
⚠️ Falling below $107,200 triggers $2.67 billion in long liquidations;
⚠️ Risk aversion sentiment rises before tariff implementation;
⚠️ Whale selling pressure or miners accelerate selling.
$102,000–$104,600
(Maximum pain of options)
📈 Mid-term (Q3-Q4): Three major dynamics determine height
Liquidity Expectations:
If the Federal Reserve implements a rate cut in September (53% probability), combined with Trump's tax reduction bill releasing liquidity, BTC may surge to $135,000–$160,000.
Risk: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike triggers a wave of arbitrage trading liquidations.
Policy Institutionalization:
If the US establishes a 'federal + state Bitcoin reserve' framework (e.g., Texas's $10 billion reserve), it may attract sovereign funds (Bhutan holds 12,000 BTC).
The EU (anti-anonymity bill) may suppress market sentiment, but MiCA licenses have been issued to 53 companies (including Circle and other stablecoin issuers).
Technological Upgrades and Adoption:
Decentralized exchange (e.g., XBIT) trading volume increased by 127% year-on-year, reducing large slippage by 40%, enhancing the convenience for institutional entry.
Corporate Adoption Deepening: Metaplanet holds13,350 BTC, Robinhood promotes blockchain to expand payment scenarios.
⚠️ Three, Risk Warning and Operational Strategy
Core Risk Points:
Whale selling pressure: If 20,000 BTC are transferred to exchanges, it could trigger a 5%-10% instant drop.
Policy black swan: Trump's tariffs implemented on August 1 may impact global supply chains; SEC delays Solana ETF affecting altcoin sentiment.
Liquidity black hole: $10 billion in derivative open interest, a drop below $101,500 could trigger a chain liquidation.
Operational Recommendations:
Strategy trigger condition target/stop loss breakout to chase long
Daily close stabilizing above $110,600
Target $116,000, Stop Loss $107,200
Defensive Layout
Pullback to stabilize at $104,600
Target $109,300, Stop Loss $102,000
Hedging Options
Allocate ETH (probability of staking ETF approval95%) or RWA tracks (e.g., ONDO)
Diversify BTC volatility risk
💎 Summary: Directional Choice Under the Shadow of Tariffs
On July 8, the market was at the critical point of 'low volatility trap' and 'policy catalyst':
Breakthrough Opportunity: If breaking above $110,600, short liquidations will drive a rapid rise to $116,000; policy benefits (stablecoin bill) and seasonal patterns are core support;
Defense Focus: Strictly maintain the defense line at $107,200 to guard against uncertainty from tariff delays and potential deep correction to $102,000 caused by whale activity.
📌 Key Observation: This week focuses on US CPI data (July 10) and legislative progress for 'Crypto Week'; the technical aspect needs to confirm the breakout direction in the $107,200–$110,600 range! 🔍