📊 One, Summary of Key Market Dynamics on July 8

  1. Price Trends and Market Reactions

    • Support Level: $107,500 (dense area of 16,800 on-chain addresses);

    • Resistance Level: $110,600 (Fibonacci + Bollinger Band upper band repeatedly suppressing rebounds).

    • Intra-day decline: Bitcoin dropped below $108,000 critical support, reporting $108,224 (daily drop of 0.5%), mainly affected by uncertainty from Trump's tariff policy impacting risk sentiment.

    • Low volatility: Trading volume shrank to a 9-month low, implied volatility is close to historical lows, and market sentiment is highly cautious.

    • Key Level Contest:

  2. Policy and Geopolitical Impacts

    • The US 'Cryptocurrency Week' (July 14-18) will advance three key bills, including (Stablecoin Accountability Act) (requiring 100% reserves) and anti-CBDC monitoring measures.

    • The SEC delayed Fidelity's Solana ETF approval but requested the applicant to resubmit documents by the end of July, which may accelerate the process.

    • Announced tariffs of 25%-40% on 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, originally set to take effect on July 9, but postponed to August 1 and stated to be 'not 100% certain', increasing market caution.

    • Threatening additional tariffs on 'countries aligned with BRICS policies', escalating global trade risks.

    • Trump's Tariff Policy:

    • Regulatory Progress:

  3. On-chain and Technical Signals

    • The daily chart shows a symmetrical triangle consolidation, with short-term support on the 4-hour chart at $107,000. A break below could trigger a deep correction.

    • MACD death cross + KDJ oversold not reversed, short-term momentum is weak.

Whale activity: Two dormant miner wallets for 14 years transferred 20,000 BTC (cost $0.78 each), valued at $2.18 billion, raising concerns about selling pressure.

  1. Technical Structure:

  2. Funds and Sentiment Divergence

    • Institutional Holdings Stabilized: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings reached $76.5 billion, with a net inflow of $4.6 billion in June.

    • Derivatives Cautious: Perpetual contract funding rate only 0.0035%, open interest $10 billion, high leverage exacerbates volatility risks.

    • Concerns About Insufficient Demand: Miners and long-term holders are selling more than new buyer demand, spot buying is weak.

🔮 Two, Future Trend Predictions: Short-term and Mid-term Scenarios

⚖️ Short-term (1-2 weeks): Policy and liquidation game dominate

Scenario-driven factors price target bullish breakout

✅ Stabilizing above $108,500 and breaking out with volume above $110,600;
✅ 'Crypto Week' bill passed for stablecoin compliance;
✅ Large whales not selling + seasonal pattern (average increase of 9.1% in July).

$112,000–$116,000

(Short liquidation triggered)

Deep Correction

⚠️ Falling below $107,200 triggers $2.67 billion in long liquidations;
⚠️ Risk aversion sentiment rises before tariff implementation;
⚠️ Whale selling pressure or miners accelerate selling.

$102,000–$104,600

(Maximum pain of options)

📈 Mid-term (Q3-Q4): Three major dynamics determine height

  1. Liquidity Expectations:

If the Federal Reserve implements a rate cut in September (53% probability), combined with Trump's tax reduction bill releasing liquidity, BTC may surge to $135,000–$160,000.

Risk: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike triggers a wave of arbitrage trading liquidations.

  1. Policy Institutionalization:

    • If the US establishes a 'federal + state Bitcoin reserve' framework (e.g., Texas's $10 billion reserve), it may attract sovereign funds (Bhutan holds 12,000 BTC).

    • The EU (anti-anonymity bill) may suppress market sentiment, but MiCA licenses have been issued to 53 companies (including Circle and other stablecoin issuers).

  2. Technological Upgrades and Adoption:

Decentralized exchange (e.g., XBIT) trading volume increased by 127% year-on-year, reducing large slippage by 40%, enhancing the convenience for institutional entry.

  1. Corporate Adoption Deepening: Metaplanet holds13,350 BTC, Robinhood promotes blockchain to expand payment scenarios.

⚠️ Three, Risk Warning and Operational Strategy

  1. Core Risk Points:

    • Whale selling pressure: If 20,000 BTC are transferred to exchanges, it could trigger a 5%-10% instant drop.

    • Policy black swan: Trump's tariffs implemented on August 1 may impact global supply chains; SEC delays Solana ETF affecting altcoin sentiment.

    • Liquidity black hole: $10 billion in derivative open interest, a drop below $101,500 could trigger a chain liquidation.

  2. Operational Recommendations:

    Strategy trigger condition target/stop loss breakout to chase long

    Daily close stabilizing above $110,600

    Target $116,000, Stop Loss $107,200

    Defensive Layout

    Pullback to stabilize at $104,600

    Target $109,300, Stop Loss $102,000

    Hedging Options

    Allocate ETH (probability of staking ETF approval95%) or RWA tracks (e.g., ONDO)

    Diversify BTC volatility risk

💎 Summary: Directional Choice Under the Shadow of Tariffs
On July 8, the market was at the critical point of 'low volatility trap' and 'policy catalyst':

  • Breakthrough Opportunity: If breaking above $110,600, short liquidations will drive a rapid rise to $116,000; policy benefits (stablecoin bill) and seasonal patterns are core support;

Defense Focus: Strictly maintain the defense line at $107,200 to guard against uncertainty from tariff delays and potential deep correction to $102,000 caused by whale activity.

📌 Key Observation: This week focuses on US CPI data (July 10) and legislative progress for 'Crypto Week'; the technical aspect needs to confirm the breakout direction in the $107,200–$110,600 range! 🔍