1. Historical highs and corrections

    • Record high: On July 12, Bitcoin first broke $118,000 (peaking at $118,856), with a year-to-date increase of over 25%, total market value exceeding $2.2 trillion (fifth in global assets).

    • Next day volatility: On July 13, Asian session quoted $117,757, slightly down 0.3% from the previous day's high, but still holding the key support at $117,000.

    • Liquidation wave: Severe price fluctuations caused 230,000 people to be liquidated, with total losses of $540 million, of which 89% were short positions.

  2. Altcoin rally and capital diversion

    • ETH broke $2,959 (+6.9%), mainstream coins like SOL, ADA rose over 10%.

    • Meme coin frenzy: PENGU (+29%), DOGE (+7%) surged in a single day, trading volume exceeded $4.5 billion.

    • Total market value hits new high: The overall cryptocurrency market value reached $3.63 trillion, an increase of 4.9% in 24 hours.


🏛️ Two, Core driving factors

  1. Policy and regulatory breakthroughs

    • Establish 'National Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve', confiscated 200,000 BTC (accounting for 6% of circulation) to be permanently banned from sale;

    • Digital asset working group will submit its first crypto policy report on July 22.

    • (GENIUS Act) (100% reserve requirement for stablecoins);

    • (CLARITY Act) (clarify SEC/CFTC regulatory responsibilities);

    • (CBDC Ban Bill) (prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing digital currency).

    • U.S. 'Crypto Week' warm-up: Congress will review three key bills from July 14-18:

    • Trump administration actions:

  2. Institutional and sovereign funds influx

ETF capital inflow strong: BlackRock's IBIT holdings reached $76.5 billion, with a net inflow of $4.6 billion in June.

  1. Corporate direct holdings: MicroStrategy holds 597,000 BTC, publicly traded companies purchased 245,000 BTC in the second quarter, exceeding the inflow of gold ETFs by 2.3 times.

  2. Institutionalizing sovereign reserves: Countries like Pakistan and Bhutan emulate Texas in establishing Bitcoin reserves (Texas has allocated $10 million).

  3. Market sentiment and narrative upgrades

    • 'Digital gold' positioning strengthened: CICC points out that Bitcoin is shifting from 'alternative currency' to reserve asset supporting the dollar system.

    • Tech stocks correlation: Nvidia's market value exceeded $4 trillion, driving funds to include AI and digital assets into a unified investment perspective.


⚠️ Three, Risk warnings and market anomalies

  1. Geopolitical policy impact

    • Trump's new tariff policy: Announced a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1, causing a brief drop of 0.49% in Bitcoin, with ETH and SOL also falling.

    • EU counterattack: EU Commission President von der Leyen stated that 'proportionate countermeasures' will be taken, increasing global trade uncertainty.

  2. Whale and exchange risks

    • Dormant wallet activation: Two dormant miner wallets for 14 years transferred 20,000 BTC (worth $2.18 billion), with a cost of only $0.78 per coin, raising concerns about selling pressure.

    • Mt.Gox transferred $6 billion BTC: The bankrupt exchange Mt.Gox transferred 95,870 BTC to an unknown address, with 139,000 BTC remaining for compensation, which may exacerbate market selling pressure.

  3. Derivatives leverage crisis

    • Liquidation concentration area: If Bitcoin falls below $116,000, it may trigger $775 million in long positions liquidation; breaking above $118,000 would only liquidate $220 million in short positions.

    • Mining revenue pressure: Average daily income fell by 51.63% after halving, requiring the price to rise to $94,489 or transaction fees to increase by 206% to regain profitability.


🔮 Four, Future outlook and operational strategy

  1. Short-term trend (1-2 weeks)

    Scenario trigger conditions price target probability bullish breakout

    Stabilized at $118,000 + Crypto weekly bill passed

    $120,000–$125,000

    60%

    Deep correction

    Fell below $116,000 + Whale selling pressure

    $102,000–$105,000

    40%

  2. Medium to long-term momentum

Liquidity expectations: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September is 53%, if realized it could push BTC to $135,000–$160,000.

  1. Cycle law: 550 days after halving peak window (October 2025), Standard Chartered expects it to reach $200,000 (by year-end).

  2. Operational suggestions

    • Breakout long: Daily close > $118,000, target $120,000, stop loss $116,000.

    • Defensive layout: Buy in batches on a pullback to $105,000, stop loss at $102,000.

    • Hedging options: Allocate ETH (95% probability of staking ETF approval) or RWA track (such as ONDO).


💎 Summary: Key watershed after the new high
On July 13, the market is in a game period of 'policy dividends' and 'geopolitical risks':

  • Breakthrough opportunity: If the 'Crypto Week' bill passes stablecoin compliance, Bitcoin could hit $120,000 (technical target $125,000);

  • Risk defense: Strictly guard the defense line at $116,000, prevent deep correction caused by tariff escalation (August 1) and Mt.Gox selling pressure.