🏛️ 1. Major Breakthroughs in Regulatory Policy

  • Three major bills passed the House of Representatives: The U.S. House passed the (GENIUS Act) (stablecoin reserve and audit requirements) with an overwhelming majority (308:122), the (CLARITY Act) (clarifying SEC/CFTC regulatory division), and the (Anti-CBDC Act) (prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing digital currency without authorization). The three bills have been submitted for Trump's signature and are expected to take effect on the same day.

  • Policy impact:

    • Stablecoin compliance: Mandatory requirements for stablecoin issuers to fully collateralize with highly liquid assets like U.S. Treasury bonds, which may push stablecoin issuers to become the third-largest buyers of U.S. Treasuries (potential demand reaches $2 trillion).

    • Regulatory authority restructuring: CFTC leads the regulation of digital commodities, while SEC only oversees security-type tokens, reducing compliance uncertainty.

  • Expected Trump executive order: Plans to allow 401(k) retirement accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies, accelerating the $9 trillion pension market entry.


📈 2. Price and Market Performance

  • Bitcoin breaks $120,000: It rose to $120,552 during the Asian trading session (24-hour increase of 1.7%), and the weekly line is expected to show four consecutive rises, just a step away from the historical high of $123,236.

  • Altcoins surge:

    • Ethereum (ETH) skyrocketed 8.2% to $3,674, reaching a new high since January.

    • XRP surged 15.4% to $3.63, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose over 15%, and Lido DAO (LDO), Flare (FLR), etc., rose over 18%.

  • Capital flow differentiation: Bitcoin's market share fell 4.8% to 61.67% weekly, with funds shifting to altcoins (TOTAL2 index rose 13.19% weekly).


📊 3. Technical Analysis and Key Levels

  • Resistance and Support:

    • Key resistance: The $120,000–$123,218 range faces strong bearish pressure; after breaking through, the target points to $126,565, with a mid-term view of $135,729–$150,000.

    • Important support: $115,600 (20-day EMA) is the watershed for bulls and bears; losing this level may see a drop to $112,400 or even $105,000.

  • Indicator signals:

    • RSI rises to 70.54 (overbought zone), short-term caution is needed for a pullback, but in a bullish trend, it may remain at high levels.

    • On-chain MVRV indicator is only 1.15 (below the profit-taking threshold of 1.35), suggesting there is still an upside potential of 20%~25%.


🏦 4. Institutional Dynamics and Long-term Outlook

  • ETF funds continue to flow in: Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow for 11 consecutive days (single-day inflow of $523 million on July 17), and Ethereum ETF attracted $602 million on the same day (the second highest in history).

  • Institutional Increase and Forecast:

    • 21Shares points out that long-term institutional holdings, such as pensions, are insufficient at less than 5%, indicating a huge incremental space.

    • Bernstein maintains a year-end target price of $150,000, while Digitalcoinprice predicts it could reach $256,284 by 2025.

  • Hong Kong concept stocks rise: Blueport Interactive up over 13%, OSL Group and Meitu up over 4%.


⚠️ 5. Market Risks and Liquidation

  • High leverage liquidation intensifies: Nearly 160,000 people were liquidated across the network in 24 hours, with a liquidation amount of $587 million (61% short positions, reaching $360 million), mainly due to the price surge triggering high-leverage forced liquidation.

  • Macroeconomic disturbances persist:

    • Divisions within the Federal Reserve (low probability of interest rate cuts in July), sticky inflation supports a stronger dollar.

    • Volatility risks before the implementation of Trump's tariff policy and regulatory details.


💎 Summary

The core logic of the Bitcoin market on July 18 is: Policy dividends realized (bill passage + pension opening expectations) → Price breaks $120,000 → Funds rotate to altcoins → High leverage amplifies short-term volatility.

  • Short-term focus: Final confirmation of Trump's signing of the bill, breakout situation of the $120,000–$123,218 resistance zone, and details on pension market entry.

  • Long-term support: Continuous inflow of institutional funds, expansion of ETF demand, and the construction of a stablecoin system anchored by U.S. Treasuries solidify the mid-term bull market structure.