📊 I. Summary of key market dynamics on July 5

  1. Price trends and volatility

    • Volatility hits a historic low (30% weekly implied volatility), trading volume shrinks to a 9-month low, reflecting strong investor wait-and-see sentiment.

    • Altcoins fall broadly: DOGE drops over 5%, SOL falls over 3%, ETH drops nearly 3%.

    • Intraday performance: Bitcoin reported $109,132 (Asian session), down 0.88% from the previous day's high of $110,101, trading within a narrow range of $105,344–$108,280, down 0.3% over 24 hours.

    • Market characteristics:

  2. Whale movements trigger market fluctuations

    • One of the wallets purchased 10,000 BTC in 2011 at $0.78 each, currently valued at over $1 billion.

    • The market interprets this as a potential selling signal, triggering short-term panic, with $219 million liquidated across the network (90,000 people liquidated) within 24 hours.

    • Two dormant whale wallets that had been inactive for over 10 years suddenly activated, transferring 20,000 BTC (approximately $2.18 billion):

  3. Policy and geopolitical risks escalate

    • The U.S. 'Cryptocurrency Week' (July 14-18) will discuss three key bills, including stablecoin regulations and anti-CBDC surveillance measures.

    • The U.S. announces tariffs of 10%-70% on countries without agreements, effective August 1; EU negotiations failed, and India plans retaliatory tariffs.

    • Tax cut policies extended, but a potential $3.3 trillion increase in deficits over the next 10 years, Moody's warns of heightened debt risks.

    • Trump signs the 'Big and Beautiful' Act:

    • Global tariff war reignites:

    • Regulatory dynamics:

  4. On-chain and technical signals

Bearish signal: 30-minute chart RSI forms a bearish divergence, MACD death cross confirms weakening short-term momentum.

  1. Key level contention: Resistance at $109,300–$110,600 (Fibonacci + Bollinger upper band), support at $108,000–$106,300 (trendline + EMA50).

Long-term holders (LTH) are locking in 14.7 million BTC, but miner/LTH selling volume still exceeds new demand.

  1. Exchange balances drop to historic lows, signs of whale address accumulation emerge.

  2. On-chain contradictions:

  3. Technical indicators diverge:

  4. Market sentiment and capital flow

    • Institutions are cautious: Bitcoin ETF saw a daily outflow of $85.7 million, but June's net inflow still reached $4.6 billion.

    • Derivatives cool-off: Perpetual contract funding rate is only 0.0035%, open contracts stagnate, indicating low leverage speculation sentiment.


🔮 II. Future trend forecast: short-term and medium-long-term scenarios

⚖️ Short-term (1-2 weeks): Liquidity pressure and key level games

Scenario-driven factors price target bullish breakout

✅ Stabilized at $109,300 and broke through $110,600 with volume;
✅ Stablecoin bill passing in mid-July boosts confidence;
✅ Seasonal pattern: July's historical average increase is 9.1%.

$116,000–$120,000

(Matrixport target)

Deep correction

⚠️ Losing $106,300 triggers $2.67 billion in long liquidations;
⚠️ U.S. bond issuance drains liquidity + tariffs impact global trade;
⚠️ Whale selling pressure continues.

$102,000–$94,500

(Bitfinex warning target)

📈 Medium-long term (Q3-Q4): Three core drivers determine the height

  1. Liquidity expectations:

    • If the Fed lowers interest rates in September, BTC may surge to $135,000–$160,000 (Standard Chartered target).

    • Risk: A rate hike by the Bank of Japan may trigger arbitrage trading liquidations, leading to a short-term asset sell-off.

  2. Policy institutionalization:

If the U.S. establishes a 'federal + state-level' Bitcoin reserve system, it may attract sovereign funds (e.g., Bhutan holding 12,000 BTC).

  1. The EU (anti-anonymity bill) may suppress market sentiment.

  2. Technical upgrades and adoption:

    • Decentralized exchanges (like XBIT) saw a year-on-year trading volume increase of 127%, reducing large slippage by 40%.

    • Corporate adoption deepens: Metaplanet increases its holdings to 13,350 BTC, Robinhood pushes blockchain to expand payment scenarios.


⚠️ III. Risk warning and operational strategy

  1. Core risk points:

    • Liquidity black hole: $10 billion in open derivative contracts, a drop below $101,500 may trigger a cascade.

    • Policy black swan: Trump’s tariffs take effect on August 1, potentially impacting the global supply chain.

  2. Operational advice:

    Strategy trigger conditions target/stop-loss breakout to chase long positions

    Daily close stabilized at $110,600

    Target $116,000, stop loss $108,000

    Defensive layout

    Retracement to $104,600 to stabilize

    Target $109,300, stop loss $103,000

    Hedging options

    Allocate ETH (95% probability of staking ETF approval) or RWA sectors (like ONDO)

    Diversify volatility risks

💎 Summary: On July 5, the market is in a tug-of-war between 'liquidity tightening' and 'policy implementation':

  • Breakthrough opportunity: A breakout above $110,600 will open up upside space to $116,000–$120,000; seasonal patterns and a low leverage environment are potential supports;

  • Defensive focus: Strictly defend the $106,300 line against whale selling pressure and tariff shocks that could lead to a deep correction to $94,500.

📌 Medium-long term outlook: Interest rate cut cycle + institutionalization of sovereign reserves may push BTC towards $160,000, but caution is needed for potential liquidity contraction risks in August (Xu Ge warns of a drop below the $100,000 mark).