📈 1. Price Breakthrough and Market Performance

  1. Historical New Highs and Volatility

Highest Reached $112,288 (some platforms report $112,000), breaking Bitcoin's 16-year historical record, with a 24-hour increase of 2.85%~3%, accumulating a 19% rise this year.

  1. Liquidation Wave: Severe price fluctuations lead to 108,800 liquidations, with total losses of $510 million, of which shorts account for over 70%.

  2. Total Market Value Exceeds $2.2 Trillion, Ranking Fifth Among Global Assets (Only Behind Gold, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple).

  3. Correlation with Related Markets

    • Tech Stocks Propel: Nvidia's market value broke $4 trillion intraday, driving the Nasdaq to new highs, with increased risk appetite boosting Bitcoin simultaneously.

Altcoin Divergence: Ethereum (ETH) rose to $2,636 (65% increase this month), Cronos (CRO) surged 19.97% in a single day, while Pi (PI) dropped 5.01%.

🚀 2. Core Drivers of Increase

  1. Policy and Regulatory Favorability

    • (GENIUS Act) (100% reserve requirement for stablecoins)

    • (CLARITY Act) (Clarifies SEC/CFTC regulatory responsibilities)

    • (CBDC Ban Bill) (Prohibits the Federal Reserve from directly issuing digital currency).

    • Expectations of Easing Regulation in the US: SEC's new chairman, Paul Atkins, pushes for crypto reforms, planning to release new policies in July–August, aiming to make the US a global center for crypto assets.

    • "Cryptocurrency Week" Approaches: The US Congress will review three major bills from July 14–18:

  2. Capital and Institutional Behavior

    • ETF Continues to Attract Capital: The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $3.6 billion in a single month, setting a historical record; BlackRock's holdings reached $76.5 billion.

    • Direct Corporate Accumulation: Companies like MicroStrategy have holdings that surpass ETFs, injecting long-term buying pressure into the market.

  3. Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Catalysts

Trump's Tariff Policy: Announced a maximum 50% tariff on Brazil and 7 other countries starting August 1, triggering investors to sell the Brazilian real and shift to Bitcoin for hedging.

  1. Expectations of Dollar Liquidity Easing: Zhongtai Securities points out that Bitcoin's movement closely aligns with global M2 growth rate, with the current M2 expansion cycle supporting long-term upward trends.

  2. Narrative Upgrade

"Digital Gold" Positioning Strengthened: China International Capital Corporation emphasizes that Bitcoin is shifting from 'alternative currency' to reserve asset, becoming 'digital gold' supporting the dollar-centered system.

⚙️ 3. Technical Aspects and Market Structure

Key Indicator Levels Market Significance Resistance Levels

$112,500

Target after Breakthrough $116,000–$120,000

Support Levels

$110,300–$110,500

If lost, potential pullback to $105,000–$102,500

Technical Form

Breakthrough Long-term Downtrend Line

Triggering Short Covering and Long Pursue

On-chain Signals

LTH Lockup of 14.7 million BTC

Long-term Chip Accumulation, but Miner Selling Pressure Remains
🔮 4. Future Outlook and Risk Warning

  1. Short-term Catalysts (1–4 weeks)

    • The implementation of tariffs on August 1 may trigger concerns about a global trade recession;

    • Large Whale Movements (20,000 dormant BTC transferred) or intensified miner selling pressure.

    • Upside Opportunity: If the 'Crypto Week' passes the stablecoin bill or CPI data reinforces interest rate cut expectations, Bitcoin may challenge $116,000–$120,000.

    • Downside Risks:

  2. Medium to Long-term Trends (Q3–2030)

Cycle Model: The peak pattern seen 550 days after halving points to an October peak (target $168,500), Standard Chartered sees it reaching $200,000 (by the end of 2025).

  1. Policy Institutionalization: Texas as a pilot state for Bitcoin reserves ($10 million), with countries like Pakistan and Bhutan following suit, attracting sovereign funds.

  2. Risk Warning

    • Leverage Liquidation: Derivatives open contracts reach $10 billion, a drop below $106,000 could trigger a sell-off.

    • Regulatory Reversal: SEC delays Solana ETF approval, EU (anti-anonymity legislation) suppresses privacy coin sentiment.

💎 Summary: Key Watershed After New Highs

The breakout on July 10 was a result of policy easing + geopolitical hedging + narrative upgrades, but the market will soon face three major tests:

  1. Policy Implementation: Will the details of the US 'Crypto Week' bill exceed expectations?

  2. Macroeconomic Data: July CPI and Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path;

  3. Technical Defense: If the psychological level of $110,000 is lost, the risk of a pullback rises to $102,000–$105,000.