📈 I. Summary of Key Dynamics on July 10

  1. Price Breaks Historical Highs

    • Reached a high of $112,000: Bitcoin first broke this level on July 10, rising 3% in 24 hours, with a cumulative increase of 19% this year, but later retreated to around $111,300.

    • Liquidation Wave: Extreme price fluctuations caused 108,800 liquidations, with total losses of $510 million, and shorts accounted for over 70%.

  2. Core Upward Drivers

    • Policy Easing Expectations: New SEC Chair Paul Atkins promotes crypto regulatory reform, plans to implement new policies in July-August, aiming to make the US a global crypto asset center.

    • Institutional Funds Pour In: Spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $14.4 billion this year, BlackRock's holdings reached $76.5 billion; direct corporate buybacks (e.g., MicroStrategy) exceeded ETF scale.

    • Geopolitical Hedging Demand: Trump announced a maximum 50% tariff on Brazil and seven other countries (effective August 1), prompting investors to sell Brazilian Real and turn to Bitcoin.

    • Narrative Upgrade: CICC points out Bitcoin's shift from 'alternative currency' to 'digital gold' as a reserve asset, supporting a dollar-centered monetary system.

  3. Technical Analysis and Market Structure

    • Key Level Struggle: Short-term Support $110,300–$110,500, Resistance $112,500; If it falls below $110,000, it may trigger a pullback to $105,000–$102,500.

    • On-chain signals are contradictory: Long-term holders (LTH) have locked in 14.7 million BTC, but miner/LTH selling volume is still higher than new buyer demand.


🔮 II. Future Trend Forecast: Short-term and Long-term Scenarios

⚖️ Short-term (1-4 weeks): Policy and Technical Resonance

Scenario-driven price target probability shows bullish breakout

✅ US 'Crypto Week' (July 14-18) passes (Stablecoin Act);
✅ Fed's September rate cut expectations heat up (probability 53%);
✅ Breaking through $112,500 triggers short squeeze.

$116,000–$120,000

60%

Deep Pullback

⚠️ Tariffs triggering global trade recession fears;
⚠️ Whale Selling Pressure (20,000 dormant BTC transferred);
⚠️ CPI data exceeding expectations delays rate cuts.

$102,000–$105,000

40%

📈 Mid to Long-term (Q3-2030): Three Core Drivers

  1. Cycle Model and Halving Effect

    • Top Window: Historical halving peak pattern points to October peak, technical target $168,500 (Fibonacci extension).

    • Deepening Scarcity: Supply contraction after 2030 halving, combined with inflation hedging demand, Standard Chartered sees $200,000 (end of 2025).

  2. Institutionalization and Policy Institutionalization

    • Sovereign Reserves: Countries like Pakistan and Bhutan establishing Bitcoin strategic reserves; Texas, USA allocates $10 million for state-level reserves.

    • Regulatory Framework: If the US establishes SEC/CFTC authority division (CLARITY Act), it will reduce compliance uncertainty.

  3. Technological Upgrades and Ecological Expansion

    • Layer 2 and Cross-chain: Decentralized exchanges like XBIT saw a year-on-year trading volume increase of 127%, reducing large transaction slippage by 40%.

    • ETF Expansion: Ethereum spot ETF approval probability 95%, staking feature may attract incremental funds.

💼 III. Operational Strategies and Risk Warnings

  1. Key Risks

    • Policy Reversal: Trump's tariffs implemented on August 1 may impact the supply chain; SEC delays Solana ETF dampening market sentiment.

    • Leverage Liquidation: Derivatives open interest at $10 billion, falling below $106,000 may trigger a chain liquidation.

  2. Strategy Recommendations

    Direction Trigger Conditions Target/Stop Loss Applicable Investors Breakout Long

    Daily Close > $112,500

    $116,000

    , Stop Loss $110,000

    Aggressive

    Pullback Layout

    Stabilizing at $105,000

    $110,000

    , Stop Loss $102,000

    Conservative

    Hedging Allocation

    ETH (Staking ETF Dividend) + RWA (ONDO)

    Diversify BTC Volatility Risk

    Cautious

💎 Summary: Divergence Path After New Highs

The breakout on July 10 is a result of policy easing + geopolitical hedging + narrative upgrade, but the market is about to face a critical test:

  • Upside Opportunity: If 'Crypto Week' policies exceed expectations or CPI data strengthens rate cut logic, Bitcoin may challenge $120,000 before **August.

  • Downward Defense: Firmly guard the psychological level of $110,000 to prevent a 15% level pullback caused by tariffs and whale selling pressure.

💡 Long-term Perspective: Driven by institutionalization, scarcity, and technological upgrades, Bitcoin's conservative target for 2025–2030 is $160,000–$350,000, but caution is needed for cycle adjustment risks in 2026.