📉 1. Price performance and market pullback

  • Pullback from peak: Bitcoin fell from a high of over $120,000 to $116,788 during the day, finally stabilizing around $118,000, with a 24-hour decline of 1.13%-2% (data varies across platforms).

  • Mainstream coins generally decline: Ethereum (ETH) falls 1.74%-1.88% (reported at $3,549-$3,550), XRP drops 4.2%-4.9%, Solana (SOL) down 2.16%; Dogecoin (DOGE) rises against the trend by 4.28%-4.82%, Ethereum Classic (ETC) surges 8.79%.

  • Liquidation surge: The number of liquidations across the network reached 185,000-200,000 within 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $814 million, of which short positions accounted for 61% (about $360 million), and long positions 39%.


🏛️ 2. Policy implementation and market reaction

  • (Genius Act) officially signed: Trump signed the (GENIUS Act) on July 18, core content includes:

Stablecoin compliance: Requires 1:1 dollar assets (U.S. Treasuries, deposits, etc.) as collateral, allowing compliant foreign stablecoins to circulate in the U.S.

  • Regulatory authority division: CFTC leads digital commodity regulation, SEC only oversees security-type tokens.

  • Establishment of national reserves: Create 'strategic Bitcoin reserves' and 'national digital asset reserves', clearly prohibiting the Fed from issuing CBDCs without Congressional authorization.

  • Market 'buy the expectation, sell the reality': After the bill's passage, Bitcoin briefly broke through $120,000, but pulled back due to profit-taking after signing, reflecting that the policy's benefits have been fully realized in the short term.


  • Whale transfer: 7,743 BTC (approximately $916 million) moved from Coinbase to an unknown wallet, suspected institutional accumulation.

  • ETF fund differentiation: Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows for several consecutive days, but the Ethereum ETF attracted $402.5 million in a single day, indicating a clear trend of funds rotating into altcoins.

  • Bitcoin's dominance declines: Market cap share drops to 64.07%, facing rejection at the critical resistance level of 63.83%, with similar historical patterns triggering altcoin seasons (like in 2021).


📊 4. Technical aspects and market sentiment

  • Key support level:

    • $115,600 (20-day EMA) is a dividing line for bulls and bears; if it breaks, it may test $112,000 or even $109,500;

    • Resistance zone $120,000-$123,218 remains under pressure.

  • Indicator signals are contradictory:

    • Bearish signal: Daily chart forms a 'bearish engulfing' pattern, RSI overbought (70.54) needs to pull back for digestion.

    • Bullish support: On-chain MVRV indicator is only 1.15 (below the selling pressure threshold of 1.35), suggesting that there is still an upside potential of 20%-25%.


⚠️ 5. Risks and market differentiation

  • Macroeconomic pressure persists: Fed rate cut expectations cool (September probability drops to 60%), sticky inflation supports a stronger dollar, suppressing risk assets.

  • Altcoin rotation starts: Bitcoin's dominance declines along with Ethereum's strength (weekly increase of 16.76%), funds shift to high-volatility assets like SOL, DOGE, and the altcoin index (TOTAL2) sees a weekly increase of 13.19%.


💎 Summary: Oscillation game after policy implementation

The core logic of the Bitcoin market on July 19 is: Policy dividend realization → High leverage profit-taking → Technical pullback + funds rotating to altcoins.

  • Short-term focus:

    • The validity of the $115,600 support level; if lost, it may trigger a deeper pullback;

    • Progress on Trump's 'pension market entry' executive order may become the next catalyst for institutional funds.

  • Long-term support:

    • Compliance of stablecoins may attract $2 trillion in U.S. Treasury demand, solidifying the foundational liquidity of the crypto market;

    • Bitcoin spot ETF and national reserve plans consolidate the medium to long-term bullish structure.