"From 99% certainty it's a scam to 60% calling for daddy, every transaction you make is betting on the global table"
Core setting → A large slap-in-the-face scene
Imagine the whole village watching a mysterious person named Satoshi making inventions:
🔮 He set a flag:
"My code system can replace banks! Total supply of 21 million will never exceed!"
👴 Villagers' reactions:
Old Wang: "Fraud! Not worth as much as my pig!" (Prior belief: 99% failure)
Aunt Li: "Is this a pyramid scheme?" (Prior belief: 95% failure)
First slap in the face: The pizza incident
🍕 Key evidence (2010):
Programmer used10,000 Bitcoinsto exchange for two pizzas!
💥 Villagers' belief update:
"I can actually trade for food?! Failure probability drops to 80%!"
(Posterior belief = Original belief × Evidence strength)
Evidence chain strikes → Truth is fragrant law activated
Whenever something weird happens in the real world, Bitcoin just keeps rising:
💡 Essence of Bayesianism:
Every time something happens, everyone silently adjusts theirtrust level, like updating a phone system
Why does the price fluctuate wildly?
👥 Villagers are divided into three factions:
Faith faction (Geeks):
"The bank will eventually go bust!" → Central bank's money printing news makes them buy crazilySkeptics (Traditionalists):
"This thing is definitely going to zero!" → Selling off madly upon seeing hacker newsFence-sitters (Coin traders):
"If it goes up, shout bull market; if it goes down, curse like a dog" → Purely following the trend
⚔️ The essence of the long and short battle:
Actually isTwo groups of people mutually think the other is a foolThe battle of beliefs
Ultimate metaphysical question: Is the 21 million cap credible?
🔐 Satoshi's poison oath:
"Total supply is 21 million! If there’s one more, I’ll live stream eating a keyboard!"
✅ 12 years of abstinence:
Villagers' trust level increased from 1% to 60% (evidential support continues to strengthen)
❓ Suspicious point:
What if one day the mining overlords team up to change the rules (51% attack)...
Trust level directly drops to zero! (Post hoc collapse)
Survival rules for beginners
1️⃣ Cognitive risk premium:
👉 The money earned is actually compensation for early believers' spirits
2️⃣ Information alchemy:
👉 When seeing news, first ask: "Does this make more people believe or less?"
3️⃣ Leek protection mantra:
> "Price movements depend on consensus,
> Slow runners become specimens!"
The real summary of the human world
Bitcoin is like a digital pet chicken🐔 raised by the whole village:
Satoshi: Claims this chicken will lay golden eggs (but the person ran away)
Early villagers: Gritting their teeth and feeding code every day (mining)
Latercomers: Some see the golden eggs (stories of getting rich), some only see chicken droppings (curses of going to zero)
Eventually, if enough people believe → The chicken really becomes a golden chicken
Suddenly everyone stopped believing → Becomes a roast chicken fast food
(Risk warning: This article is too real, crypto trading friends please read with family accompaniment)