"From 99% certainty it's a scam to 60% calling for daddy, every transaction you make is betting on the global table"

Core setting → A large slap-in-the-face scene

Imagine the whole village watching a mysterious person named Satoshi making inventions:

🔮 He set a flag:
"My code system can replace banks! Total supply of 21 million will never exceed!"
👴 Villagers' reactions:

  • Old Wang: "Fraud! Not worth as much as my pig!" (Prior belief: 99% failure)

  • Aunt Li: "Is this a pyramid scheme?" (Prior belief: 95% failure)

First slap in the face: The pizza incident

🍕 Key evidence (2010):
Programmer used10,000 Bitcoinsto exchange for two pizzas!
💥 Villagers' belief update:
"I can actually trade for food?! Failure probability drops to 80%!"
(Posterior belief = Original belief × Evidence strength)

Evidence chain strikes → Truth is fragrant law activated

Whenever something weird happens in the real world, Bitcoin just keeps rising:

💡 Essence of Bayesianism:
Every time something happens, everyone silently adjusts theirtrust level, like updating a phone system

Why does the price fluctuate wildly?

👥 Villagers are divided into three factions:

  1. Faith faction (Geeks):
    "The bank will eventually go bust!" → Central bank's money printing news makes them buy crazily

  2. Skeptics (Traditionalists):
    "This thing is definitely going to zero!" → Selling off madly upon seeing hacker news

  3. Fence-sitters (Coin traders):
    "If it goes up, shout bull market; if it goes down, curse like a dog" → Purely following the trend

⚔️ The essence of the long and short battle:
Actually isTwo groups of people mutually think the other is a foolThe battle of beliefs


Ultimate metaphysical question: Is the 21 million cap credible?

🔐 Satoshi's poison oath:
"Total supply is 21 million! If there’s one more, I’ll live stream eating a keyboard!"
✅ 12 years of abstinence:
Villagers' trust level increased from 1% to 60% (evidential support continues to strengthen)
❓ Suspicious point:
What if one day the mining overlords team up to change the rules (51% attack)...
Trust level directly drops to zero! (Post hoc collapse)

Survival rules for beginners

1️⃣ Cognitive risk premium:
👉 The money earned is actually compensation for early believers' spirits
2️⃣ Information alchemy:
👉 When seeing news, first ask: "Does this make more people believe or less?"
3️⃣ Leek protection mantra:
> "Price movements depend on consensus,
> Slow runners become specimens!"

The real summary of the human world

Bitcoin is like a digital pet chicken🐔 raised by the whole village:

  • Satoshi: Claims this chicken will lay golden eggs (but the person ran away)

  • Early villagers: Gritting their teeth and feeding code every day (mining)

  • Latercomers: Some see the golden eggs (stories of getting rich), some only see chicken droppings (curses of going to zero)
    Eventually, if enough people believe → The chicken really becomes a golden chicken
    Suddenly everyone stopped believing → Becomes a roast chicken fast food

(Risk warning: This article is too real, crypto trading friends please read with family accompaniment)