📊 One, Price Performance and Market Overview

  1. Slight pullback after historical new high

    • Reached a high of $118,000: On July 11, Bitcoin broke the historical record to $117,666 (some platforms reported $118,868), with a 24-hour increase of 5.6%, a cumulative increase of over 20% this year.

    • Next day pullback: On July 12, Asian session quote at $117,645, down about 0.3% from the previous day's high, but still holding the $117,000 key support level.

Liquidation wave: Severe price volatility leads to 230,000 liquidations, with total losses of $540 million, of which 89% are short positions.

  1. Altcoins surge and funds flow diversion

    • ETH breaks $2,959 (+6.9%), mainstream coins like SOL and ADA rise over 10%.

    • Meme coin frenzy: PENGU (+29%), DOGE (+7%), PEPE (+16%) surge in a single day, trading volume exceeds $4.5 billion.

    • Total market value reaches a record high: Total cryptocurrency market cap reaches $3.63 trillion, increasing by 4.9% in 24 hours.

🏛️ Two, Core Driver Analysis

  1. Policy and regulatory breakthroughs

    • Establish 'national strategic cryptocurrency reserves', with 200,000 BTC confiscated (accounting for 6% of circulating supply) permanently banned from sale;

    • The Digital Assets Working Group will submit its first crypto policy report on July 22, covering Bitcoin reserve financing plans.

    • (GENIUS Act) (100% reserve requirements for stablecoins);

    • (CLARITY Act) (clarifying SEC/CFTC regulatory responsibilities);

    • (CBDC Ban Act) (prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing digital currency).

    • US 'Crypto Week' heats up: Congress will review three key bills from July 14–18:

    • Trump administration actions:

  2. Institutional funds continue to flow in

    • ETF capital inflow strong: BlackRock IBIT holdings reach $76.5 billion, with a net inflow of $4.6 billion in June.

    • Direct corporate accumulation: MicroStrategy holds 597,000 BTC, with publicly listed companies acquiring 245,000 in Q2, exceeding gold ETF inflows by 2.3 times.

    • National sovereign reserves: Countries like Pakistan and Bhutan follow the US Texas model by establishing Bitcoin reserves (Texas has allocated $10 million).

  3. Market sentiment and narrative upgrade

    • 'Digital gold' positioning strengthened: CICC points out that Bitcoin is shifting from 'alternative currency' to a reserve asset supporting the dollar system.

    • Tech stocks linkage: Nvidia's market value exceeds $4 trillion, leading funds to unify AI and digital assets into a single investment view.

⚙️ Three, Technical Analysis and On-Chain Signal Interpretation

Indicator current status market significance key resistance level

$118,000–$120,000

The breakthrough will open a space of $125,000–$135,000

Key support level

$116,000–$117,000

Losing the support may trigger $775 million in long liquidations

Technical form

Daily chart 'ascending triangle' breakout

Target $120,000 (MACD golden cross confirmation)

On-chain chip distribution

Proportion of loss-making chips rises to 15.18%

Short-term investor SOPR index 0.99972 (overall loss)

Miner pressure

Shutdown price rises to $55,000

Average daily income decreased by 51.63% after halving

⚠️ Four, Risk Warning and Market Outlook

  1. Short-term risk points

    • Derivatives liquidation crisis: If Bitcoin falls below $116,000, it may trigger $775 million in long liquidations; breaking $118,000 would only trigger $220 million in short liquidations.

    • Large whale selling pressure: Two dormant miner wallets transfer 20,000 BTC (worth $2.18 billion), posing a potential selling threat to the market.

    • Policy volatility: Trump's tariff policy (effective August 1) may impact global trade sentiment.

  2. Medium to long-term trend

    • Bullish scenario:

If the 'Crypto Week' bill passes + Federal Reserve rate cut in September (probability 53%), target $135,000–$160,000;

  1. Halving cycle pattern points to an October peak (historical average increase of 478%).

    Bearish risks:

Increasing revenue pressure on miners, need the coin price to rise to $94,489 or transaction fees to increase by 206% to restore pre-halving income levels;

  • EU MiCA licenses issued to 53 companies, but Tether and Binance are non-compliant, with regulatory friction ongoing.

💎 Summary: The game period after the new high
On July 12, Bitcoin is at the critical point of 'policy catalyst' and 'technical correction':

  • Breakthrough opportunity: Stabilizing above $118,000 will trigger short squeezes, target $120,000 (seasonal patterns + institutional accumulation);

  • Defense focus: Strictly hold the $116,000 defense line, guard against whale movements and derivatives liquidity crises.#BTC