1. Intraday Volatility

    • Opening Quote: Bitcoin reported $108,650 in the Asian session, reaching a high of $109,803 during the day (breaking key resistance), but fell back to $108,957 in the afternoon, with a 24-hour increase narrowing to 0.64%~0.77%.

    • Volatility Range: Throughout the day fluctuating in the $105,344–$109,803 range, trading volume shrank by 23% compared to the previous day, forming a 'volume-price divergence' pattern.

  2. Key Position Offense and Defense

    Position Level Significance Support Level

    $107,200–$108,000

    4-hour upward trend line, tested multiple times without breaking

    Resistance Level

    $109,300–$110,600

    Fibonacci 0.618 Retracement Level + Bollinger Band Upper Band

    Bull-Bear Divide

    $108,500

    MA50 Moving Average, determines short-term direction

🧩 Two, Market Structure: Surging Profit-Taking and Demand Concerns

  1. Holder Profit Status

    • 93% of BTC holders are profitable: due to price rebound, long-term holders (LTH) have an average cost significantly below the current price, with profit-taking reaching historical highs.

    • Whale Movements Trigger Panic: Two dormant miner wallets that have been silent for 14 years transferred 20,000 BTC (about $2.18 billion), with a cost of only $0.78 each, raising concerns about potential selling pressure.

  2. Demand Divergence

    • Institutions Continue to Accumulate: BlackRock and others saw a net inflow of $4.6 billion into spot ETFs in June, MicroStrategy's holdings reached 597,000 BTC (accounting for 3% of the circulating supply).

    • Retail Demand Shrinks: Over the past 30 days, on-chain demand decreased by 895,000 BTC, with miners and LTH selling more than new buyers are purchasing.

🏛️ Three, Policy and Regulation: U.S. 'Crypto Week' Heats Up

  1. Legislative Process Accelerates

    • Ohio passes the 'Bitcoin Rights Bill' (HB 116), ensuring self-custody and mining freedom, with a $200 per transaction tax exemption limit;

    • Connecticut signs the Bitcoin Reserve Ban (HB7082), prohibiting state government from holding BTC.

    • Stablecoin Bill Sprint: The U.S. House of Representatives will review the Stablecoin Accountability Act (GENIUS Act) from July 14 to 18, requiring 100% dollar reserves and real-time audits, or pushing the industry scale to $15–20 trillion.

    • State-Level Policy Divergence:

  2. Global Collaboration Strengthens: The U.S.-EU Joint Financial Regulatory Forum focuses onCoordinating Cross-Border Payments and Anti-Money Laundering Rules, with the EU MiCA coming into effect promoting stablecoin compliance.

📉 Four, Technical Signals: Intensifying Bull-Bear Tug of War

  1. Contradictory Indicators Coexist

    • MACD histogram has been negative for 7 consecutive hours, KDJ has fallen to 8.23 (oversold, not reversed);

    • MA10 and MA30 form a 'Death Cross' ($107,895 vs $106,742).

    • Bullish Signal: Daily chart forms the third descending channel breakout structure; if the previous two patterns (end of 2024, early 2025) repeat, target $120,000.

    • Bearish Signal:

  2. Divergence in Operation Strategies

    Camps' Strategy Trigger Conditions Target/Stop Loss for Bulls

    Breakout to chase long

    Daily close > $110,600

    Target $116,000, stop loss $107,200

    Bears

    High short positioning

    Rebound to $109,300

    Target $104,600, stop loss $110,000

    Neutral

    Grid trading (utilizing low volatility)

    Range $107,000–$109,000

    Automatic take profit and stop loss

    ⚠️ Five, Risk Warning: Short-term Volatility Catalysts

Whale Selling Pressure: If 20,000 BTC flows into exchanges, it could trigger a correction to $102,000–$104,600.

  1. Macroeconomic Events:

U.S. CPI Data (to be released on July 10): If it exceeds expectations or delays interest rate cuts, it could suppress risk assets;

  1. Tariff Policy: Exemption deadline on July 9, Trump insists on a 25% tariff on Japanese cars, escalating global trade risks.

💎 Summary: On the Eve of a Breakthrough
On July 7, Bitcoin is in a 'low-volatility accumulation' phase, with bullish and bearish forces entangled in the $108,000–$110,000 range:

  • ✅ Upside Opportunity: If it breaks above $110,600 with volume, it will open up a space to $116,000–$120,000 (seasonal patterns + favorable policies);

  • ⚠️ Downside Risks: Whale movements + insufficient demand could trigger a deep correction to $104,600, and there is a need to guard against derivative liquidations (unsettled contracts $10 billion).

📌 Key Observations: U.S. 'Crypto Week' legislative progress, CPI data, and the strength of support at $107,200 will determine short-term directional choices! 🔍