📈 One, Price Trends: Under Pressure After Fluctuating Upwards
Intraday Volatility
Opening Quote: Bitcoin reported $108,650 in the Asian session, reaching a high of $109,803 during the day (breaking key resistance), but fell back to $108,957 in the afternoon, with a 24-hour increase narrowing to 0.64%~0.77%.
Volatility Range: Throughout the day fluctuating in the $105,344–$109,803 range, trading volume shrank by 23% compared to the previous day, forming a 'volume-price divergence' pattern.
Key Position Offense and Defense
Position Level Significance Support Level
$107,200–$108,000
4-hour upward trend line, tested multiple times without breaking
Resistance Level
$109,300–$110,600
Fibonacci 0.618 Retracement Level + Bollinger Band Upper Band
Bull-Bear Divide
$108,500
MA50 Moving Average, determines short-term direction
🧩 Two, Market Structure: Surging Profit-Taking and Demand Concerns
Holder Profit Status
93% of BTC holders are profitable: due to price rebound, long-term holders (LTH) have an average cost significantly below the current price, with profit-taking reaching historical highs.
Whale Movements Trigger Panic: Two dormant miner wallets that have been silent for 14 years transferred 20,000 BTC (about $2.18 billion), with a cost of only $0.78 each, raising concerns about potential selling pressure.
Demand Divergence
Institutions Continue to Accumulate: BlackRock and others saw a net inflow of $4.6 billion into spot ETFs in June, MicroStrategy's holdings reached 597,000 BTC (accounting for 3% of the circulating supply).
Retail Demand Shrinks: Over the past 30 days, on-chain demand decreased by 895,000 BTC, with miners and LTH selling more than new buyers are purchasing.
🏛️ Three, Policy and Regulation: U.S. 'Crypto Week' Heats Up
Legislative Process Accelerates
Ohio passes the 'Bitcoin Rights Bill' (HB 116), ensuring self-custody and mining freedom, with a $200 per transaction tax exemption limit;
Connecticut signs the Bitcoin Reserve Ban (HB7082), prohibiting state government from holding BTC.
Stablecoin Bill Sprint: The U.S. House of Representatives will review the Stablecoin Accountability Act (GENIUS Act) from July 14 to 18, requiring 100% dollar reserves and real-time audits, or pushing the industry scale to $15–20 trillion.
State-Level Policy Divergence:
Global Collaboration Strengthens: The U.S.-EU Joint Financial Regulatory Forum focuses onCoordinating Cross-Border Payments and Anti-Money Laundering Rules, with the EU MiCA coming into effect promoting stablecoin compliance.
📉 Four, Technical Signals: Intensifying Bull-Bear Tug of War
Contradictory Indicators Coexist
MACD histogram has been negative for 7 consecutive hours, KDJ has fallen to 8.23 (oversold, not reversed);
MA10 and MA30 form a 'Death Cross' ($107,895 vs $106,742).
Bullish Signal: Daily chart forms the third descending channel breakout structure; if the previous two patterns (end of 2024, early 2025) repeat, target $120,000.
Bearish Signal:
Divergence in Operation Strategies
Camps' Strategy Trigger Conditions Target/Stop Loss for Bulls
Breakout to chase long
Daily close > $110,600
Target $116,000, stop loss $107,200
Bears
High short positioning
Rebound to $109,300
Target $104,600, stop loss $110,000
Neutral
Grid trading (utilizing low volatility)
Range $107,000–$109,000
Automatic take profit and stop loss
⚠️ Five, Risk Warning: Short-term Volatility Catalysts
Whale Selling Pressure: If 20,000 BTC flows into exchanges, it could trigger a correction to $102,000–$104,600.
Macroeconomic Events:
U.S. CPI Data (to be released on July 10): If it exceeds expectations or delays interest rate cuts, it could suppress risk assets;
Tariff Policy: Exemption deadline on July 9, Trump insists on a 25% tariff on Japanese cars, escalating global trade risks.
💎 Summary: On the Eve of a Breakthrough
On July 7, Bitcoin is in a 'low-volatility accumulation' phase, with bullish and bearish forces entangled in the $108,000–$110,000 range:
✅ Upside Opportunity: If it breaks above $110,600 with volume, it will open up a space to $116,000–$120,000 (seasonal patterns + favorable policies);
⚠️ Downside Risks: Whale movements + insufficient demand could trigger a deep correction to $104,600, and there is a need to guard against derivative liquidations (unsettled contracts $10 billion).
📌 Key Observations: U.S. 'Crypto Week' legislative progress, CPI data, and the strength of support at $107,200 will determine short-term directional choices! 🔍