📉 1. Price and Market Performance

  • Stabilizing fluctuations: Bitcoin price fluctuates around $118,000 (intraday range $117,300–$118,800), slightly rebounding from the previous day's low of $116,300 but still below the historical high of $123,236.

  • Aftermath of liquidations: The number of liquidations across the network reached 122,000 within 24 hours, with a liquidation amount of $462 million (approximately 3.31 billion RMB), and the proportion of long position losses remains high.

  • Capital diversion: Some funds are shifting to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), with ETH rising over 7% in a single day due to ETF fund inflows, and SOL rising 5% due to institutional accumulation.

⚖️ 2. Regulatory Policy Progress

  • Vote on the GENIUS Act imminent: The U.S. House of Representatives passed procedural voting by a narrow margin of 217-212, paving the way for the final vote on the (GENIUS Act) (regulating stablecoin reserve requirements) and the (CLARITY Act) (clarifying digital asset regulatory framework). If passed, it could push Bitcoin towards the $150,000 target.

  • Anti-CBDC clause included in defense bill: The House has committed to adding a clause to the (Defense Authorization Act) that prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) without Congressional approval, seen as a compromise to the crypto community.

  • Trump denies plans to dismiss Powell: Trump clarified that there are 'no plans to replace the Federal Reserve Chairman,' easing market concerns over political interference in monetary policy, but emphasized that Powell's 'performance is poor,' leaving uncertainty in subsequent policies.

  • Whale movements: Early Bitcoin whales transferred 40,192 BTC (approximately $4.76 billion) to a new wallet within 7 hours, totaling over 80,000 BTC transferred within two days, raising market alertness to selling pressure.

  • Institutions continue to position themselves:

    • Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a net inflow for 8 consecutive days (totaling $297 million), and CME futures open interest reached a new high, indicating institutions are adopting a neutral/bullish strategy on regulated platforms.

    • On-chain data shows that there are over $2.3 billion in buy orders supporting the $116,000–$118,000 range, and long-term holders (LTH) taking profits have not shaken institutional holding confidence.

  • Increased selling pressure from miners: The Miner Position Index (MPI) has risen to 2.78 (an 11-month high), but is still far below the levels at the top of the bull market, indicating a short-term correction rather than a trend reversal.

📈 4. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

  • Divergence in technical signals:

    • Bearish signal: The daily chart forms a 'bearish engulfing' pattern, with short-term holders' unrealized profit margin reaching 15.4% (entering overheated territory), suggesting local top risk.

    • Bullish pattern: The weekly 'cup and handle' pattern targets $144,500, and a breakout above $130,000 may trigger accelerated gains. Key support at $112,000 should hold to maintain the mid-term trend.

  • Volatility premium rises: Bitcoin options implied volatility (IV) remains at 38–39%, with a surge in hedging demand for contracts expiring on July 25, reflecting increased market sensitivity to inflation and policy.

🌐 5. Impact of Macroeconomic Environment

  • Interest rate cut expectations cool down: The Fed's Beige Book warns that 'inflation may accelerate late in summer,' with the probability of a rate cut in September falling to 60%. June CPI year-on-year at 2.7% exceeded expectations, delaying easing policies may lead to temporary capital outflows from the crypto market.

  • Strengthening dollar pressure: Persistent inflation enhances the dollar's attractiveness, putting pressure on Bitcoin as a 'rate-sensitive asset,' but it, along with gold, is seen as an alternative reserve asset to 'hedge against fiat currency risk.'

🔮 6. Institutional Perspectives and Forecasts

  • Cautious in the short term, optimistic in the long term:

    • Bernstein maintains a year-end target price of $150,000, emphasizing that 'this round of bull market is led by institutions, different from retail bubbles.'

    • Analysts predict if the GENIUS Act is passed, Bitcoin may quickly test $125,000 before moving towards $150,000.

  • Risk warning: Matrixport warns that tighter regulation and Trump's tariff policies may keep volatility high in the long term; Glassnode points out that 98.9% of holdings are still profitable, but caution is needed against short-term selling pressure.

💎 Summary

The core logic of the Bitcoin market on July 17 is: technical recovery after a plunge + regulatory bill game + macro inflation disturbances.

  • Short-term focus: Final voting results of the GENIUS Act (deciding whether to break through the $120,000 resistance), effectiveness of the $112,000 support level.

  • Medium to long-term support: Institutional funds continue to flow in, ETF demand, and compliance process, the medium-term bull market structure remains intact.