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The midday strategy has already taken profits, let's see what happens in the evening.
Short-term Trend Judgment: Strong upward momentum, but be wary of overbought pullbacks.

Latest Price and Key Data:

Latest Price: 1,678.65 (approaching the 24h high of 1,679.04), price is in a strong zone.

RSI(6): 84.32 (severely overbought), short-term pullback pressure is very high.

BOLL Band: Price (1,678.65) has broken through the upper band (1,666.02), need to pay attention to whether it can hold or pull back.

Technical Indicator Signal:

EMA Moving Averages: EMA(7) (1,643.16) > EMA(25) (1,623.24) > EMA(99) (1,602.67), moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, trend is bullish.

#保护您的资产 ETH/USDT is inclined to oscillate slightly bullish in the short term, but key resistance levels should be monitored. The following are specific suggestions:

📈 Bullish signal:

MACD golden cross: DIF crosses above DEA and the histogram turns positive, indicating strengthened short-term momentum.

BOLL channel trending upward: Price stabilizing at the middle band (1,589.97), approaching the upper band (1,661.98). If it breaks through, it may accelerate upwards.

RSI neutral to strong: RSI(6) is 66.12 (not overbought), still has room for upward movement.

Volume support: MA(5) volume is higher than MA(10), indicating active buying in the short term.

⚠️ Risk warning:

BOLL upper resistance: The current price (1,632.45) is close to the upper band (1,661.98), attention is needed to see if it can break through with increased volume.

Core indicator interpretation

BOLL channel (direction biased bearish):

Current price 1,473.69 is below the middle track (1,546.47), close to the lower track (1,360.59), overall in a downward channel.

Key signal: If the price rebound cannot break through the middle track (1,546.47), the bearish trend continues; if it stabilizes at the middle track, it strengthens in the short term.

MACD bearish momentum convergence:

DIF (-75.40) is close to DEA (-74.31), MACD bar slightly decreases (-1.09), indicating that the downward momentum is weakening, but a golden cross has not yet formed.

RSI (6) neutral slightly weak:

RSI value 42.13 (not oversold), if the rebound breaks through 50, it strengthens the bullish trend in the short term; if it falls below 30, it accelerates the decline.

Short-term trend assessment: Neutral to bearish, but approaching the oversold rebound threshold.
The current price is in a downward channel, but RSI(6) has dropped to 20.64 (oversold zone), with BOLL lower band support around 1,349.52, caution is needed for oversold rebound.


Operation Suggestion:
1️⃣ Bullish Signal (Cautious):

Entry Point: If the price effectively stays above the BOLL lower band at 1,349.52 and the following signals appear:

MACD Golden Cross (DIF crosses above DEA)

RSI(6) rebounds above 30

1-hour candlestick forms a long lower shadow or bullish engulfing pattern

Target: Rebound to the BOLL middle track around 1,596.33

Stop Loss: Stop loss if it breaks below 1,349.52 (to prevent lower band failure).

Core trend judgment

Bearishness dominates but approaches extreme values:

The price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band (1,483.87), and RSI (6) = 13.98 (severely oversold, historical extreme), and there is a strong rebound demand from the technical perspective.

The MACD indicator (DIF:-20.42, DEA:-10.26) shows that the short-selling momentum is still there, but the bar has not continued to expand, suggesting that the downward momentum has weakened marginally.

Key contradictions:

Price and volume divergence: The current price has hit a new low (1,453.46), but the volume (Vol=64,600) is far below the 5-day average (662,462), and the downward momentum is insufficient.

The Bollinger Band opening is expanding: the bandwidth (UP-DN≈145) is in an expanding state. If the price continues to run close to the lower track, it may accelerate the breakout or trigger a pullback.

Core conclusion:
Current trend is bearish but close to key support; caution is advised for oversold rebounds. It is recommended to focus on shorting on rebounds, and long positions should wait for strong reversal signals.


1. Analysis of core contradictions

Moving average system suppression is evident: EMA7 (1,570.48) and EMA25 (1,653.02) are in a bearish arrangement, with price being firmly suppressed below the moving averages (currently 1,559.02).

MACD momentum contradiction: DIF (-66.16) and DEA (-66.17) are close to convergence; the MACD bar (0.61) is slightly turning red, indicating weakened downward momentum but not a reversal.

Abnormal trading volume: 24h trading volume reached 878,000 ETH (high liquidity), but current volume (128k ETH) is contracting, raising doubts about the sustainability of the decline.

Current ETHUSDT trend is in a short-term rebound repair phase, but medium-term is still under bearish pressure. Key signals need to be combined to determine the entry point. Detailed analysis is as follows:


Core trend judgment

Key positions in the long-short game

Current price 1,581.68 is above EMA(7)=1,567.87, short-term support is valid, but the upper EMA(25)=1,673.90 forms strong resistance (medium-term trend watershed).

EMA(25) and EMA(99)=1,832.67 are still in a bearish arrangement. If EMA(25) cannot be broken, the overall trend remains bearish.

Volume-price divergence risk

Current trading volume (1,175K) is far below MA(5)=2,487K and MA(10)=2,717K. The rebound lacks capital support. If the breakthrough of EMA(25) does not have volume, beware of false breakouts.

I. Core Judgment: Trend is bearish, beware of oversold rebounds

Clear Moving Average Pressure

EMA Bearish Arrangement: EMA(7)=1,576.69 @ EMA(25)=1,705.39 @ EMA(99)=1,849.91, price (1,565.24) is below all moving averages, indicating a downward trend in the medium to long term.

Resistance Levels:

Short-term Resistance: Around EMA(7) (1,576), if it rebounds to this level and encounters resistance, consider a short position.

Strong Resistance Zone: EMA(25) (1,705) to the previous high of 1,765, breakthrough is very difficult.

MACD Momentum Divergence

DIF=49, DEA=-52.03, MACD histogram=-27.46: Indicators show bearish momentum is dominant, but the MACD histogram has rebounded from a low point (negative value narrowing), suggesting a weakening of short-term bearish momentum and a possibility of a rebound.

Short-term bearish outlook, recommended to watch cautiously and wait for clear signals before entering.

Core basis: First, the current price is 1,506.79, with a drop of 15.89%. This indicates a significant price drop. Users mention a clear downward trend recently with increased trading volume. Generally, increased volume accompanied by price decline may indicate strong selling pressure, with bears in control. Both the DIF and DEA lines in the MACD indicator are in the negative zone, with DIF at -77.38 and DEA at -32.59, which is typically seen as a bear market signal because both lines are below the zero axis, and DIF is below DEA, possibly forming a death cross, further confirming the downward trend.

ETHUSDT is currently in a clear downward trend. In the short term, it is advisable to observe cautiously and not enter blindly. Below are specific judgments and operational suggestions:


Trend Judgment:

Bearish Arrangement of Moving Averages:

The price has fallen below all key moving averages (7-day EMA=1,574, 25-day EMA=1,659, 99-day EMA=1,760), and the moving averages are diverging downward, indicating that bears dominate the market and the trend is weak.

MACD Confirms Downward Momentum:

DIF (-60.99) is below DEA (-52.66), and the MACD histogram remains negative (-8.32), indicating that the downward momentum has not waned and a reversal signal is unlikely in the short term.

Currently, there is a possibility of a short-term rebound in ETHUSDT, but the overall trend remains bearish, so caution is advised. Here are specific suggestions:


Trend Judgment

Bearish Dominance

Candlestick Structure: The price continues to create lower lows (1,535.27), with EMA(7) and EMA(25) both above the current price, forming a bearish arrangement.

MACD Indicator: Both DIF and DEA are negative and diverging downwards, MACD histogram expands (-23.14), indicating that the downward momentum has not weakened.

Short-term rebound opportunity

The price is approaching the low from 24 hours ago (1,535.27), which may trigger a technical rebound after being oversold, but verification with volume is needed.


Entry Point Suggestion

Trend judgment:

Bearish trend dominant:

The current price (1,729.79) is significantly below EMA(7)/EMA(25)/EMA(99) (1,773~1,886), and the three EMAs are in a bearish arrangement (short-term moving average below), indicating a bearish bias in the medium to long term.

In the MACD indicator, both DIF and DEA are negative and diverging downwards. The MACD histogram (-3.64) shows that the downward momentum is still continuing.

Short-term risk:

The price is close to the 24-hour low support level (1,710). If it breaks below, it may accelerate the decline to 1,697 (lower support marked on the chart).

If the price rebounds, watch for resistance near EMA(7) (1,773). If it does not effectively break through, the downward trend remains unchanged.

Short-term trend assessment: Cautiously bullish

Potential MACD golden cross: Although the DIFF and DEA lines are in negative territory, the MACD histogram has turned positive (1.47), suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening. If DIFF crosses above DEA to form a golden cross, it may trigger a rebound.

Price and moving average relationship: The current price (1,790.94) is slightly below MA5 (short-term resistance) but above MA10 (medium-term support), indicating that after a short-term pullback, it may stabilize.

Bollinger band support: The price is close to the mid-band (1,798.56); if it breaks above the mid-band, it is expected to test the upper band (1,823.50); if it falls back, the lower band (1,773.62) will provide support.

Short-term direction judgment:

Neutral to weak oscillation

Price is near the midline of the Bollinger Band (MB: 1,801.45) and has not broken above the upper band (UP: 1,828.71), indicating insufficient bullish momentum.

MACD shows a weak golden cross (DIF: -13.39 crossing above DEA: -15.76), but the values are still negative, rebound strength is questionable.


Key operational suggestions:

Bullish conditions (must meet the following signals):

Breakthrough resistance level: Stabilize above the upper Bollinger Band (1,828) with increased trading volume.

MACD confirmation: DIF continues to cross above DEA and the histogram turns red and expands.

Entry point: Breakout after pulling back in the range of 1,820-1,830 without breaking, target 1,860-1,900.

Bearish signals dominate:

Both the MACD's DIF and DEA are in negative territory and have formed a death cross (DIF is below DEA), indicating a dominant downward momentum.

The price is below the middle band of the Bollinger Band (1,899.01), close to the lower band (1,746.87), reflecting short-term weakness.

Potential risk points:

If the price stabilizes and rebounds near the support level of 1,757.52, it may trigger a corrective bounce, but confirmation with a MACD golden cross or increased volume is needed.


Entry point suggestion

Shorting opportunity (higher probability):

Aggressive strategy: If the price rebounds to short-term resistance near 1,834.70 and faces pressure (near the middle band of the Bollinger Band), a small position can be attempted to short, with a stop loss set above 1,840.