Core conclusion:
Current trend is bearish but close to key support; caution is advised for oversold rebounds. It is recommended to focus on shorting on rebounds, and long positions should wait for strong reversal signals.
1. Analysis of core contradictions
Moving average system suppression is evident: EMA7 (1,570.48) and EMA25 (1,653.02) are in a bearish arrangement, with price being firmly suppressed below the moving averages (currently 1,559.02).
MACD momentum contradiction: DIF (-66.16) and DEA (-66.17) are close to convergence; the MACD bar (0.61) is slightly turning red, indicating weakened downward momentum but not a reversal.
Abnormal trading volume: 24h trading volume reached 878,000 ETH (high liquidity), but current volume (128k ETH) is contracting, raising doubts about the sustainability of the decline.
2. Bull-bear dividing line and key points
EMA7 (1,570) short-term moving average suppression; if broken, it may test the previous high of 1,618 (needs to coincide with volume increase).
Support
1,526 (previous low) is the lowest price in 24h; if broken, it may trigger panic selling, targeting below 1500.
Dark line
The psychological level of 1550 is not clearly marked but exists; the price has rebounded briefly in this area multiple times, and we need to be cautious of bullish resistance.
3. Operation strategy and entry point
(1) Bearish strategy (high probability)
Trigger condition: Price rebounds to near EMA7 (1,570) and shows volume contraction and stagnation (e.g., long upper shadow).
Entry point: Light short positions in the range of 1,565-1,570.
Target: 1,526 (previous low) → If broken, can add positions targeting 1,480.
Stop-loss: Above 1,585 (reserve space below EMA25).
(2) Bullish strategy (high risk, strict discipline required)
Trigger condition: Price breaks through EMA7 (1,570) with MACD golden cross (DIF crossing DEA).
Entry point: Light long positions when breaking through and retracing to 1,570 without breaking.
Target: 1,618 (previous high) → Can hold until 1,650 (EMA25 pressure area) after breaking.
Stop-loss: Below 1,550 (to guard against false breakouts).
(3) Shorting signal (confirming trend acceleration)
Trigger condition: Price breaks down to 1,526 with significant volume increase.
Entry point: Short when it rebounds to around 1,530 after breaking down.
Target: 1,480 (integer level) → 1,450 (extension area of the 2023 low).
Stop-loss: Above 1,540.
4. Risk warning and detail reminders
MACD divergence risk: If the price makes a new low (e.g., breaks 1,526) but MACD does not follow with a new low, it may trigger a short-term rebound.
Volume trap: Current volume is contracting; if there is a sudden increase in volume with a rebound (e.g., a single long bullish engulfing candle), quickly stop-loss on short positions.
EMA25 suppression logic: EMA25 (1,653) is the dividing line for medium to long-term bull and bear; any rise before breaking is considered a rebound.
5. Summary
Short-term operation priority: Short on rebound > Short on confirmation > Cautious bottom fishing
Current price is in a 'moving average suppression + downward continuation' structure, it is advised to watch in the 1,570-1,526 range and wait for right-side signals.
If trading aggressively, prefer to short near 1,570 with strict stop-loss; long positions are limited to oversold rebounds (e.g., effective support at 1,526 + MACD bottom divergence).
Major trend change warning: If the price stabilizes above EMA25 (1,653), a full shift to bullish is required (current probability below 20%).