Core trend judgment
Bearishness dominates but approaches extreme values:
The price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band (1,483.87), and RSI (6) = 13.98 (severely oversold, historical extreme), and there is a strong rebound demand from the technical perspective.
The MACD indicator (DIF:-20.42, DEA:-10.26) shows that the short-selling momentum is still there, but the bar has not continued to expand, suggesting that the downward momentum has weakened marginally.
Key contradictions:
Price and volume divergence: The current price has hit a new low (1,453.46), but the volume (Vol=64,600) is far below the 5-day average (662,462), and the downward momentum is insufficient.
The Bollinger Band opening is expanding: the bandwidth (UP-DN≈145) is in an expanding state. If the price continues to run close to the lower track, it may accelerate the breakout or trigger a pullback.
Long and short strategies and entry points
【Main strategy】Short on rallies (win rate 60%)
High altitude entry point:
Ideal short position: 1,490-1,510 range (between the lower and middle tracks of the Bollinger Bands), if the 15-minute K-line shows a "long upper shadow + a rebound with reduced volume".
Covering position: If the price rebounds to 1,530 (buffer zone below the middle line 1,556), add short positions.
Stop loss: 1,556 (above the middle Bollinger band), target 1,450→1,420.
Breakout and short (high risk):
Trigger conditions: The price entity falls below 1,453 and VOL expands above MA5 (662,462).
Entry point: Place order below 1,450, and cover position when it rebounds to 1,460.
Stop loss: 1,480, target 1,410 (strong support).
[Second strategy] Oversold rebound (35% winning rate, light position to try long)
Left bottom-picking signal:
Trigger conditions: After the price reaches 1,453, any of the following signals occurs:
15-minute K-line "Hammer" or "Morning Star"
RSI(6) rises back above 20
MACD column turns red for 2 consecutive times with shrinking volume
Entry point: 1,453-1,460. Build positions in batches, and add positions every time the price drops by 10 USDT.
Stop loss: 1,440 (absolute risk control line), target 1,500→1,530.
Right side chasing long signal:
Confirmation conditions: The price breaks through 1,500 with large volume and stays stable for 1 hour.
Entry point: Enter the market when it falls back to 1,495 but does not break.
Stop loss: 1,485, target 1,550 (middle line pressure).
Key trading details
Time sensitive areas:
4-hour K-line closing (current cycle to 2025-04-08 17:00): If it closes below 1,483 (Bollinger lower band), the bearish trend will be strengthened.
Asian session (02:00-08:00 UTC): Liquidity is low, beware of false breakouts.
Indicator resonance signal:
RSI and price bottom divergence: If the price hits a new low but RSI(6) does not break the previous low (currently 13.98), a rebound can be confirmed.
VOL-MA5 crossover: During a rebound, the volume needs to break through MA5 (662,462) to verify authenticity.
Final Operational Advice
The best option: short selling in the range of 1,490-1,510, stop loss at 1,556, target at 1,420, and profit-loss ratio of 1:3.
Second best option: Try long with a light position below 1,453, set stop loss at 1,440, and enter and exit quickly to try for a 5%-8% rebound.
Absolute avoidance: Opening a position when the price fluctuates without direction between 1,470-1,490 (noise range).
Risk Warning
Leverage ≤ 10x to avoid margin calls due to extreme fluctuations (such as a spike to 1,410).
Position ≤20%, with sufficient margin for margin replenishment.
If macro events such as the US CPI data occur suddenly, you need to close your positions immediately and wait and see.
(Strategy validity period: 24-48 hours $ETH
