ETHUSDT is currently in a clear downward trend. In the short term, it is advisable to observe cautiously and not enter blindly. Below are specific judgments and operational suggestions:
Trend Judgment:
Bearish Arrangement of Moving Averages:
The price has fallen below all key moving averages (7-day EMA=1,574, 25-day EMA=1,659, 99-day EMA=1,760), and the moving averages are diverging downward, indicating that bears dominate the market and the trend is weak.
MACD Confirms Downward Momentum:
DIF (-60.99) is below DEA (-52.66), and the MACD histogram remains negative (-8.32), indicating that the downward momentum has not waned and a reversal signal is unlikely in the short term.
Price Approaching 24-Hour Low:
The current price of 1,548.77 is approaching the 24-hour low of 1,520. If this support level is broken, it may further decline below 1,500.
Entry Point Suggestion:
Conservative Strategy (Mainly Observing):
Waiting for Stabilization Signal: If the price can stop falling around 1,520 and form a bullish reversal K-line at the hourly level (such as a long lower shadow or a bullish engulfing), a small position can be taken to go long, with a stop loss set below 1,510.
Re-enter After Breaking Moving Averages: If the price rebounds and breaks above the 7-day EMA (1,574) and stabilizes, the short-term trend may recover, and long positions can be added in batches, targeting 1,600-1,650.
Aggressive Strategy (Short Selling Along the Trend):
Short Selling Below 1,520: If the price breaks below the 1,520 support with increased volume, short selling can be executed with a target of 1,490-1,500 and a stop loss set above 1,530.
Short Selling at Moving Average Resistance During Rebound: If the price rebounds to the 7-day EMA (1,574) or 25-day EMA (1,659) and encounters resistance to fall back, short selling can be executed at a high.
Risk Warning:
Risk of Volume Decrease: The current trading volume (214k) is below the 5-day average volume (491k), and caution is needed for the rebound risk caused by insufficient selling pressure at low levels.
Oversold Rebound Possibility: The MACD is significantly negative, and if the price drops sharply to around 1,500, a technical rebound may occur, but it needs confirmation with volume.
Summary:
The current market is bearish, and no clear reversal signals have appeared. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, waiting for the price to stabilize at key support or break through moving averages; aggressive investors can operate in the direction of resistance (EMA moving averages) or support breakout, with strict stop losses.