Core Technical Signal Interpretation
1. Bearish trend unchanged:
- MACD Indicator: DIF (-44.95) and DEA (-44.95) double lines overlap below the zero axis, the MACD histogram (-12.49) continues to contract but has not turned red, downward momentum weakens but has not reversed.
- Bollinger Bands opening downwards: the middle track (1,954.37) continues to press down, price (1,848.79) closely follows the lower track (1,813.81), bears still dominate the trend.
- Moving average pressure: Price is below MA(5)/MA(10), short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement.
2. Short-term rebound opportunities:
- Oversold support area: Current price approaches the lower Bollinger Band (1,813.81) and the 24-hour low (1,832.29), short-term selling pressure may have been fully released.
- Volume contradiction: Trading volume MA(5) (487,317) is below MA(10) (776,859), decreasing volume on price drop may signal bear exhaustion.
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Action Strategy: Two plans to cope with different risk preferences
1. Aggressive short position (left-side trading, high risk)
- Entry conditions:
- Price touches the lower Bollinger Band (1,813-1,830) and shows a stop-loss signal (such as a long lower shadow on the 4-hour candlestick, MACD histogram divergence).
- Accompanied by moderately increasing trading volume (Vol breaks MA5 average line).
- Action:
- Trial long range: 1,813-1,830, stop loss strictly set below 1,810 (to guard against false breakouts).
- Target: 1,880 (pressure level below the middle track) → 1,913 (high from 24 hours ago), take profit in batches.
2. Conservative right-side (follow the breakout, medium-low risk)
- Reversal confirmation signals:
- Price stabilizes at the middle track: Breaks 1,954 (Bollinger Band middle track) and returns without breaking, confirming a shift from short to long.
- MACD Golden Cross: DIF crosses above DEA and the histogram turns red, accompanied by increased trading volume.
- Action:
- Chasing long entry: After breaking 1,913, stabilize near 1,900 on pullback, stop loss at 1,890.
- Target: 1,954 (middle track) → 2,002 (previous high platform), hold if a trend reversal occurs.
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Risk Warning and Risk Control
1. Breakout risk:
- If the price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band (1,813) on increased volume, it may accelerate down to the strong support area of 1,750-1,780, and decisive stop loss is needed.
2. Volume-price divergence risk:
- If the rebound lacks volume support (Vol remains below MA5), beware of false breakouts and potential second dips.
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Conclusion
- Short-term: Increased probability of a rebound from oversold conditions, focus on the 1,813-1,830 support area for trading opportunities, but need to be quick in and out.
- Mid-term: Overall remains bearish in a sideways trend until effectively breaking above the middle track (1,954), avoid blind bottom-fishing.
- Optimal Strategy: Conservatives wait for MACD golden cross + stable signal on the right side of the middle track, aggressives take small positions to try long and strictly adhere to stop loss.
Note: Current market volatility is high, it is recommended to keep position ≤ 5%, prioritize batch take profit/stop loss.
