Current ETHUSDT trend is in a short-term rebound repair phase, but medium-term is still under bearish pressure. Key signals need to be combined to determine the entry point. Detailed analysis is as follows:
Core trend judgment
Key positions in the long-short game
Current price 1,581.68 is above EMA(7)=1,567.87, short-term support is valid, but the upper EMA(25)=1,673.90 forms strong resistance (medium-term trend watershed).
EMA(25) and EMA(99)=1,832.67 are still in a bearish arrangement. If EMA(25) cannot be broken, the overall trend remains bearish.
Volume-price divergence risk
Current trading volume (1,175K) is far below MA(5)=2,487K and MA(10)=2,717K. The rebound lacks capital support. If the breakthrough of EMA(25) does not have volume, beware of false breakouts.
MACD potential trend reversal signal
DIF=-76.00 is still below DEA=-65.08, but the distance between them is narrowing, MACD green bars are shortening, bearish momentum is fading. If a golden cross forms, it strengthens the short-term bullish logic.
Operational strategy and entry points
Bullish scenario (participate after breakthrough confirmation)
Aggressive long position (high risk)
Entry condition: Price stabilizes above EMA(7)=1,567.87 and closes positively on the hourly chart.
Entry point: Light long position in the 1,580-1,570 range, target 1,673 (EMA(25)), stop loss 1,550 (below EMA(7)).
Logic: Short-term rebound continues, betting on EMA(25) breakthrough.
Conservative long position (high certainty)
Entry condition: Price breaks above EMA(25)=1,673.90 with volume (need volume > MA(5)=2,487K).
Entry point: Enter after breaking 1,674 and retracing without breaking, target 1,832 (EMA(99)), stop loss 1,650.
Logic: Medium-term trend reversal signal, bearish pressure is lifted.
Bearish scenario (positioning after rebound exhaustion)
Short opportunity
Trigger condition: The price has repeatedly faced resistance below EMA(25)=1,673.90, and the MACD golden cross has failed.
Entry point: Short position in the 1,670-1,673 range, target 1,567 (EMA(7)), stop loss 1,690.
Logic: Medium-term bearish trend continues, signal for the end of the rebound.
Breakout short position
Trigger condition: Price breaks below EMA(7)=1,567.87 with volume.
Entry point: Short below 1,560, target previous low 1,410, stop loss 1,580.
Key risk control tips
False breakout trap: Current trading volume is sluggish. If the price quickly rises to EMA(25) but the volume does not increase simultaneously, it is necessary to decisively take profit.
Time window: MACD golden cross needs to be confirmed within 24-48 hours; otherwise, the rebound momentum may weaken.
External correlation: Pay attention to BTC trends and US stock fluctuations; ETH has recently shown increased correlation with the Nasdaq index.
Summary
Short-term: Bullish oscillation, focus on the 1,567-1,673 range. Breaking EMA(25) opens up upward space.
Medium-term: Until above EMA(25)=1,673, it is still viewed as a rebound rather than a reversal.
Best strategy: Wait for a decisive signal of the long-short battle near EMA(25), strictly implement stop loss, and avoid excessive chasing of highs and lows.
