老李迫击炮

【December 1 Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#美联储 will officially end quantitative tightening today;
2、In November, the spot trading volume of cryptocurrency exchanges dropped to $1.59 trillion, the lowest level since June;
3、In November 2025, the return rate of #比特币 was -17.67%, marking the second lowest record so far;
4、This week's important events and data forecast: #鲍威尔 speech, U.S. PCE and #小非农 .

The Federal Reserve officially stopped QT on December 1, ending the process of reducing its balance sheet by more than $2 trillion since June 2022. This policy shift means that pressure on U.S. dollar liquidity will ease, and long-term interest rates are expected to decline, potentially providing support for high-risk assets. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market showed significant contraction in November—total spot trading volume dropped to $1.59 trillion, a month-on-month decrease of 26.7%, marking a new low since June; DEX trading volume also fell to $397.78 billion, again the lowest level since June.
From the asset performance perspective, #BTC recorded a return rate of approximately -17.67% in November, becoming its second-worst November performance in history; Ethereum's return rate during the same period was -22.38%, also marking the second lowest record in history. This trend sharply contrasts with historical patterns: in the past, the average return of Bitcoin in November was +41.12%, with a median of +8.81%. The contraction of liquidity and the decline in trading activity have amplified market volatility, while the end of the Fed's QT may bring a structural turning point to the crypto market—if the liquidity environment gradually improves, core crypto assets like Bitcoin are expected to benefit first in valuation recovery.

【November 28 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、#TRUMP : The stock market will continue to reach new highs;
2、Cryptoquant Founder: #BTC On-chain indicators show bearish signals, and subsequent rises may depend on the macro liquidity environment;
3、United States #LTC The spot ETF has seen no net inflow of funds for 7 consecutive trading days;
4、Arthur Hayes: It is expected that the price discovery of the largest #科技股 in the United States will occur in the perpetual contract market.

Trump's latest public statement indicates that he believes the stock market will continue to rise and may significantly reduce or even eliminate income tax through tariff revenue. If this policy expectation is implemented, it will enhance market liquidity, prompting more funds to seek non-traditional asset allocation, thereby producing spillover effects on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, as a tool to hedge against dollar credit and policy uncertainty, is expected to attract more attention from institutional and individual investors.
At the same time, Arthur Hayes pointed out that traditional finance is striving to maintain its core position in stock trading, but the rise of stock index perpetual contracts is changing this landscape. The daily trading volume of this contract has surpassed 100 million USD, and with mature underlying infrastructure, the scale is expected to rapidly expand to tens of billions of USD per day. As traditional markets may still release significant news after closing on Fridays, these types of contracts will become effective tools for institutions and retail investors to manage risks over the weekend. This trend will force mainstream trading platforms in the United States to accelerate their transition to round-the-clock trading and may make the retail-facing perpetual contract market the main venue for price discovery of U.S. tech stocks and major indices (such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100) before the end of 2026.

[November 27 Market News and Data Analysis]

1. Due to the holiday, the #感恩节 and #美股休市 markets are closed today, as is the bond market;

2. #strategy launched a new credit indicator to alleviate debt concerns following the cryptocurrency crash;

3. #ETH 's total open interest across all contracts increased by 6.7% in the past 24 hours;

4. Data: #BTC Long-term holders have been selling heavily over the past two weeks, averaging 53,560 tokens sold per day.

The U.S. SEC, in its newly released 2025 work plan, outlines a clearer regulatory path for digital assets. This plan aims to create a flexible and structured institutional environment for digital assets by establishing clear rules, strengthening market security measures, and promoting inter-agency collaboration. This may involve adjustments to exemption clauses, safe harbor arrangements, dedicated transfer agent rules for distributed ledger technology, and the cryptocurrency market structure, aiming to facilitate the smoother integration of digital assets into the traditional financial system.

Meanwhile, long-term Bitcoin holders are exhibiting significant profit-taking behavior. Data shows that the Bitcoin supply at LTH has fallen sharply from the cycle high of 15.75 million to 13.6 million, the lowest level since the start of the bull market. In the past two weeks, long-term holders have sold more than 800,000 Bitcoins, averaging about 53,600 per day, resulting in a decrease in their holdings of approximately 5.54%. Such large-scale supply contraction often occurs at important market turning points, reflecting that "smart money" is distributing at high levels, which may put pressure on Bitcoin's short-term price and suggest that the upward momentum of this round is weakening.

【November 26 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant criticizes the interest rate management mechanism of #美联储 ;
2. Options worth $14 billion, #BTC , will expire this Friday;
3. Bitwise Consultant: The four-year cycle of #比特币 has ended, opening a new "two-year cycle";
4. Analysis: Market panic has not disappeared, and medium to long-term option data from the end of the year to next year still points to bearish sentiment.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant recently publicly questioned the Federal Reserve's interest rate control framework, believing that its operations are overly complicated and should be streamlined. He pointed out that the current monetary policy has fallen into a highly complex situation and specifically mentioned a loosening trend in the reserve-based model, but did not elaborate on its meaning. Besant has long criticized the distorting effect of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet size on market prices, while also expressing concerns about the potential risks of its reliance on liquidity management tools.
From a research perspective, if the Federal Reserve's policies continue to become more complex, it will amplify the uncertainty in the crypto market. Although expectations for a rate cut in December are heating up, historical experience shows that the key factors influencing Bitcoin's trends are not the rate cuts themselves, but the tendency of policy statements. If the Federal Reserve does not release clear dovish signals during consecutive rate cuts, its support for risk assets will be significantly reduced. Additionally, the rare triggering of dollar indicators and the potential release of liquidity by the Treasury have previously led to a lagging decline in Bitcoin, reminding investors to be wary of the substantial risks beneath the surface.

【November 25 Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#TRUMP claims to visit China in April next year;
2、#BTC mining economy worsens: hash rate reaches a new high but cryptocurrency prices fall;
3、#strategy halts Bitcoin purchases, ending six consecutive weeks of accumulation, with stock prices down about 70% from peak;
4、UBS: #美股 correction has been completed, and a rebound by the end of the year is expected.

Institutions point out that the recent selling sentiment in the U.S. stock market has basically calmed down, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices retreating to near the 100-day moving average, the selling pressure from systematic funds has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next month has improved, laying technical support for an overall rebound by the end of the year. Against this backdrop, risk appetite is expected to recover, and momentum stocks may see strong performance, providing upward momentum for the overall market.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin network hash rate reached a new high of 1.16 ZH/s in October, but Bitcoin prices fell to about $81,000, causing hash rate revenue (hashprice) to drop below $35/PH/s, lower than the $45 median of listed mining companies, with some miners nearing breakeven, extending the payback period to over 1,200 days. Despite this, JPMorgan has raised the target prices for several mining companies, driving related stocks to rise across the board; moreover, IREN signed a five-year GPU cloud service agreement with Microsoft for a total of about $9.7 billion, marking a significant shift of mining companies towards high-performance computing #AI . The inflow of institutional funds and business diversification are expected to provide some support for Bitcoin in the short term, but the continued rise in hash rate costs remains a major factor suppressing BTC prices.

【November 24th Cryptocurrency Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Barclays: #鲍威尔 may drive the Fed to cut interest rates next month;
2. #BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $1.22 billion last week, continuing 4 weeks of net outflow;
3. Opinion: Bitcoin has rebounded to $87,500, market structure remains 'fragile';
4. Spot #黄金 fell below $4,050/ounce, with a daily decline of 0.39%.

The latest institutional research report points out that despite uncertainties in the Fed's interest rate decision next month, Chairman Powell is highly likely to push for a rate cut. Analysis shows that council members such as Milan, Bowman, and Waller tend to favor a rate cut, while regional presidents like Musalem and Schmidt are more inclined to maintain the status quo, resulting in a slight balance of six votes reserved and five votes in support. If a rate cut is realized, a loose funding environment will enhance the attractiveness of risk assets, especially creating positive expectations for the liquidity-demanding cryptocurrency market.
After experiencing a significant liquidation earlier this week, Bitcoin has rebounded to around $87,600, with a 24-hour increase of 1.8%, and main chains like #ETH and #xrp also saw slight increases. Analysts refer to this as a 'post-cleaning rebound', but point out that liquidity remains thin, buying interest is dispersed, and it may fluctuate in the $85,000 to $90,000 range in the short term. If it can hold above $88,000, it will validate a bottoming signal and attract institutional rotation funds; if it falls below $80,000, it may trigger a new round of selling. Overall, the potential expectation of a rate cut provides possible funding support for Bitcoin, but the market structure remains fragile, and attention needs to be paid to funding rates and liquidation dynamics to capture the real trend.

【November 21 Crypto Market News, 24-Hour Gains List and Data Analysis】
1. September #非农 data is mixed, #美联储 12 December interest rate cut prospects remain divergent;
2. Total crypto market cap dips to $3 trillion;
3. #zec daily mining revenue shows an increase, mining difficulty approaches historical highs;
4. Goldman Sachs warns: #美股 crash hides "extreme hedging" panic.

Recent analysis from institutions shows that Nvidia's better-than-expected performance has not alleviated market concerns, but instead triggered intense fluctuations in U.S. stocks on Thursday. After a strong opening, the S&P 500 index quickly turned downward, recording significant daily volatility, market capitalization evaporated sharply, and fell below the 100-day moving average; the panic index surged simultaneously. The report indicates that investors are fully hedging against "crowding risk," shifting into a conservative asset protection state. Meanwhile, non-farm data releases conflicting signals, causing expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve to become divided—many institutions believe that rising unemployment could lead to easing, but hawkish statements and inflation near target still leave the policy path full of uncertainty.
This market shift creates dual pressure on the crypto space, especially Bitcoin. Risk-averse sentiment in U.S. stocks can easily transmit to digital assets, with #BTC short-term potentially following risk assets under pressure; however, if the Federal Reserve ultimately chooses to cut rates, the potential increase in liquidity may inject momentum into the crypto market in the medium to long term. Current investors need to be wary of macro volatility amplifying Bitcoin's sensitivity and remain cautious until policies are clarified.

Key macroeconomic events and key forecasts and interpretations of the crypto market this week. CoinAnk data shows:
July 1st, Tuesday, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value for June; US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June;
July 2nd, Wednesday, US ADP employment number for June;
July 3rd, Thursday, US June non-farm payroll report and June unemployment rate will be released in advance;
July 4th, Friday, US S&P Global Services PMI final value for June; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June, factory orders month-on-month for May; Musk: Grok 4 is scheduled to be released after July 4.
From June 30th to July 6th, many Fed officials will deliver speeches; Trump predicts that the US will hold talks with Iran this week.

We believe that, combined with US employment data: if job vacancies continue to be higher than the number of unemployed (showing the current ratio is 1.2), it will highlight the labor market mismatch problem. In particular, we need to pay attention to the increased risk of occupational mismatch in highly educated groups, and the anomaly of "no vacancy recruitment" accounting for more than 16%. The early release of non-farm payroll data may indicate volatility risks, and it is necessary to focus on analyzing the transmission of wage growth to the Fed's policy.
Trump's prediction of US-Iran talks and the intensive speeches of Fed officials may amplify market sensitivity. History shows that political cycles may distort the interpretation of economic data, and if geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices, it will strengthen cost pressures in the service industry. Technological events (such as the release of Grok 4) may become a risk appetite regulator, but we need to be wary of liquidity siphon effects.
The core contradiction is that if the manufacturing PMI strengthens but the service PMI falls back, coupled with non-farm wage growth exceeding expectations, it may force the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance in the political cycle, exacerbating the game of "tightening-recession" expectations. It is recommended to use a dynamic mismatch model to track cross-departmental data divergence and be wary of the combination risk of "high vacancy rate + low turnover rate" in the job market.
In the short term (the data-intensive period will amplify volatility, if non-farm payrolls are higher than 200,000 or ISM services PMI > 55, it may trigger "hawkish panic" and make BTC test key support; conversely, if employment weakens (ADP < 150,000), it will boost interest rate cut expectations and push up prices. The medium-term trend shows that institutional entry still constitutes support, but tariff policies and geopolitical variables such as US-Iran talks may become new sources of disturbance. #BTC This week may be in a state of high volatility, it is recommended to pay attention to the market's pricing changes on the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in September before and after the release of non-farm payrolls, which will become the key to directional choice.

This week's large token unlock data;
Coinank data shows that this week 41,395,946,960, ENA, and DYDX will experience large unlocks, as follows in UTC+8 time:
Sui (SUI) will unlock 44 million tokens at 8:00 on July 1, worth approximately 127 million USD, accounting for 1.3% of the circulating supply;
Ethena (55,451,468,498) will unlock 40.63 million tokens at 15:00 on July 2, worth approximately 11.29 million USD, accounting for 0.67% of the circulating supply;
dydx (96,873,069,716) will unlock 4.17 million tokens at 8:00 on July 1, worth approximately 2.25 million USD, accounting for 0.56% of the circulating supply;
EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 1.29 million tokens at 23:00 on July 1, worth approximately 1.57 million USD, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply.
We believe that this week's large unlock events for tokens such as SUI, ENA, DYDX, and EIGEN, although part of regular market operations, should be approached with caution regarding their potential impact. Token unlocks are usually seen as bearish factors, as early investors or team members may sell to cash out, increasing market supply and causing short-term price downward pressure; especially in a high volatility environment, such events can amplify market sentiment fluctuations, leading to liquidity tightening. However, the proportion of this unlock is generally low, accounting for a maximum of 1.3% and a minimum of 0.41% of the circulating supply, and historical data shows that small unlocks have limited overall market impact, often buffered by the project's fundamentals or external factors.
DYDX, as the leader in decentralized derivatives, has demonstrated strong performance in its independent chain ecosystem, with a high staking rate and a profit distribution mechanism shifting towards community token holders, which may enhance long-term confidence and partially offset unlock pressure. In contrast, while SUI is positioned as a high-performance public chain, the unlock value is relatively high (approximately 127 million USD), and attention should be paid to market absorption capacity; while ENA and EIGEN have smaller unlock scales, their impact may be weaker. Investors are advised to prioritize examining project technological progress and ecological health rather than short-term events. In the current market environment, unlock events may trigger localized volatility, but systemic risks are controllable, and robust projects like DYDX are expected to demonstrate resilience.

The price of #BTC remains around 107,000 USD. According to CoinAnk data, the holding ratio of long-term holders (LTH) to short-term holders (STH) is showing a recovery trend. Looking back at past market cycles, similar accumulation phases usually last 4 to 8 weeks. If combined with a conservative 1.6 times price increase prediction model, Bitcoin's future price is expected to rise further. Historical data indicates that significant accumulation by LTH often serves as a precursor to price breakthroughs, for example, at the levels of 28,000 USD and 60,000 USD, the increase in LTH holdings catalyzed the price to jump to 60,000 USD and 100,000 USD, respectively.
From a research interpretation perspective, the growth of the LTH/STH ratio reflects a recovery of market confidence. LTH continues to accumulate, reducing the circulating supply and supporting Bitcoin's upward potential. However, it is necessary to be cautious of key resistance levels such as 99,900 USD that may trigger profit-taking. Strong buying pressure is needed to absorb selling pressure in order to maintain the upward trend. If STH demand can match LTH supply, Bitcoin is expected to break through the 100,000 USD mark, further driving the sentiment of the entire cryptocurrency market. Historical cycle analysis has pointed to a target of 126,000 USD, suggesting potential upside space, but external risks such as regulatory changes or liquidity fluctuations must be considered. For the cryptocurrency market, a strong breakthrough by Bitcoin will boost altcoins and derivatives trading volume, strengthening bullish expectations, but short-term pullback risks such as miner sell-offs or macro factors need to be closely monitored.

Due to the U.S. military airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in late June, which affected the power system, mining activities in Iran significantly declined, with the country accounting for over 3% of the global share. The interruption of cheap electricity caused mining machines to go offline, and although it was not directly aimed at mining, it exposed the potential vulnerabilities of the Bitcoin network in geopolitical conflicts.
Data from CoinAnk shows a significant decline in total network computing power of 10,431,813,177 in late June 2025. In the short term, the decrease in computing power may weaken transaction confirmation efficiency and impact security, but historical experience indicates that mining difficulty adjustments will attract miners back, restoring relatively quickly.
Such events highlight that while Bitcoin's decentralized characteristics are resilient, they are easily affected by external disturbances. For the cryptocurrency market, BTC prices are under short-term pressure, falling below $100,000 and triggering large-scale liquidations; however, the rise in mining company stock prices reflects the market's recognition of system resilience. A rebound in risk appetite in the Middle East may bring buying opportunities, but investors should be wary of sustained volatility caused by escalating conflicts and avoid leverage risks. Overall, the long-term trend of BTC still depends on fundamentals rather than a single geopolitical event.

In the past 7 days, the cryptocurrency market, categorized by concept sectors, has only achieved a net inflow of funds of #BSC , while #Launchpool , fan tokens, RWA, and Brc20 have seen relatively small outflows. According to CoinAnk data, in the past 7 days, the cryptocurrency price increase rankings are as follows (selected from the top 500 by market capitalization), #fun , #LQTY , #Sei , AERGO, and T tokens have performed relatively well, and this week, strong tokens should continue to be prioritized for trading opportunities.

This week's key macro events and important forecasts and interpretations of the crypto market, CoinAnk data shows:
June 24, Tuesday: Chairman #鲍威尔 of #美联储 delivers semi-annual monetary policy report testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
June 25, Wednesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies before the Senate Committee on the semi-annual monetary policy report; Permanent Voting Member #fomc , New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech.
June 26, Thursday: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 21.
June 27, Friday: U.S. core #PCE Consumer Price Index year-on-year for May; U.S. final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for June.
Deribit: Bitcoin options will see the largest quarterly settlement this Friday, with the maximum pain point at $100,000;
June 28, Saturday: Thailand SEC will block numerous crypto platforms.

We believe that the core of this week's macro events and crypto market forecasts lies in the impact of policy communication, economic data, and regulatory changes on market uncertainty. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's congressional testimony is a key event. The forward guidance from central bank communication (such as interest rate cut signals) has a far greater impact on market expectations than the current economic conditions described; a dovish stance may boost risk assets, while hawkish comments could increase volatility, especially in policy-sensitive areas like cryptocurrencies. This is due to the increased transparency of central banks, making the market more sensitive to policy signals, which may lead to changes in short-term capital flows.
The release of economic data will test the resilience of the U.S. economy. If the data is weaker than expected, it may strengthen expectations for rate cuts, driving a rebound in risk assets like the crypto market; conversely, strong data may heighten concerns and amplify volatility. The PCE, as an inflation indicator, may also affect exchange rates and cross-border capital flows, indirectly impacting the liquidity of the crypto market.
The large-scale settlement of #BTC options may trigger short-term price fluctuations, which, combined with policy uncertainty, increases the risk of leveraged positions being liquidated. Meanwhile, the Thailand SEC's blocking of multiple exchanges highlights regulatory divergence, similar events have previously heightened regional policy uncertainty, suppressing investment confidence, but have limited impact on the global market.