Key macroeconomic events and key forecasts and interpretations of the crypto market this week. CoinAnk data shows:

July 1st, Tuesday, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value for June; US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June;

July 2nd, Wednesday, US ADP employment number for June;

July 3rd, Thursday, US June non-farm payroll report and June unemployment rate will be released in advance;

July 4th, Friday, US S&P Global Services PMI final value for June; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June, factory orders month-on-month for May; Musk: Grok 4 is scheduled to be released after July 4.

From June 30th to July 6th, many Fed officials will deliver speeches; Trump predicts that the US will hold talks with Iran this week.

We believe that, combined with US employment data: if job vacancies continue to be higher than the number of unemployed (showing the current ratio is 1.2), it will highlight the labor market mismatch problem. In particular, we need to pay attention to the increased risk of occupational mismatch in highly educated groups, and the anomaly of "no vacancy recruitment" accounting for more than 16%. The early release of non-farm payroll data may indicate volatility risks, and it is necessary to focus on analyzing the transmission of wage growth to the Fed's policy.

Trump's prediction of US-Iran talks and the intensive speeches of Fed officials may amplify market sensitivity. History shows that political cycles may distort the interpretation of economic data, and if geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices, it will strengthen cost pressures in the service industry. Technological events (such as the release of Grok 4) may become a risk appetite regulator, but we need to be wary of liquidity siphon effects.

The core contradiction is that if the manufacturing PMI strengthens but the service PMI falls back, coupled with non-farm wage growth exceeding expectations, it may force the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance in the political cycle, exacerbating the game of "tightening-recession" expectations. It is recommended to use a dynamic mismatch model to track cross-departmental data divergence and be wary of the combination risk of "high vacancy rate + low turnover rate" in the job market.

In the short term (the data-intensive period will amplify volatility, if non-farm payrolls are higher than 200,000 or ISM services PMI > 55, it may trigger "hawkish panic" and make BTC test key support; conversely, if employment weakens (ADP < 150,000), it will boost interest rate cut expectations and push up prices. The medium-term trend shows that institutional entry still constitutes support, but tariff policies and geopolitical variables such as US-Iran talks may become new sources of disturbance. #BTC This week may be in a state of high volatility, it is recommended to pay attention to the market's pricing changes on the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in September before and after the release of non-farm payrolls, which will become the key to directional choice.