Macro Interpretation: The US dollar index fell below 97 today, hitting a new low since March 2022. Behind the continued weakening of the dollar is the strong appreciation of major currencies like the renminbi — both onshore and offshore renminbi exchange rates have broken through the 7.16 mark, reaching a nearly 7-month high. This profound change in the currency landscape is prompting global capital to accelerate its search for value storage methods that are not priced in dollars, thereby garnering some attention for the 'digital gold' attribute.
Geopolitical and economic policy uncertainties further reinforce this trend. Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the US Senate has urgently adjusted the schedule for a classified briefing on Iran, highlighting bipartisan dissatisfaction with the government's communication mechanism and the intensifying geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's policy is in a delicate situation: if it continues to pause interest rate cuts in July, it may intensify Trump's intentions to replace the Fed chairman. This expectation of challenges to the authority of policy will further weaken the dollar's credibility and drive safe-haven funds towards decentralized assets.
Several key signals for Bitcoin indicate that a new round of explosive market conditions is about to start. On the technical chart, a classic bullish flag pattern has quietly formed — this is a brief consolidation phase after Bitcoin's previous rapid rise, which typically signifies a buildup for a new offensive. Bitcoin currently needs to effectively break through resistance levels to confirm the validity of the pattern; if successful, mid-term prices are expected to reach higher levels.
The core force supporting this technical expectation comes from the continuous layout of on-chain capital. Historical data reveals a key pattern: large-scale accumulation by long-term holders (LTH) often serves as a precursor signal for explosive Bitcoin market conditions. At the two key nodes of $28,000 and $60,000, the significant increase in LTH holdings catalyzed price breakthroughs to $60,000 and $100,000, respectively. Currently, at the $100,000 mark, the LTH/STH holding ratio is showing an upward trend again; if we refer to the accumulation pattern of the previous two cycles, about 4-8 weeks, combined with a conservative 1.6x increase estimate, the next target for Bitcoin is worth looking forward to.
At the institutional level, despite senior executives in the Strategy division cashing out approximately $40 million in stocks at recent highs, founder Michael Saylor's holding of 19.6 million Class B shares remains unchanged. This phenomenon of internal selling contrasted with the founder's steadfastness reflects both the market's demand for profit-taking at certain stages and the core capital's firm confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.
The evolution of exchange liquidity patterns also confirms the increase in market activity. The latest data shows that Binance maintains a leading liquidity depth of approximately $8 million within a ±$100 price range for Bitcoin, followed closely by Bitget and OKX. In the Ethereum and altcoin sectors, the former exhibits liquidity in fine price ranges. This improvement in infrastructure provides a solid guarantee for large-scale capital inflows and outflows.
The latest report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) adds theoretical support. The institution points out that stablecoins have not met the criteria of singularity, elasticity, and integrity in three key tests, and thus cannot yet become a pillar of the monetary system. This authoritative conclusion indirectly confirms the unique value of non-stable cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin — in the context where both traditional financial systems and emerging stablecoins exhibit significant flaws, Bitcoin, with its scarcity and decentralized characteristics, is becoming an important safe haven for global capital.
Overall, the breakthrough of technical patterns at critical points, the firm accumulation of long-term capital, the weakening of US dollar credit, and the macro background of escalating geopolitical risks together constitute the 'golden triangle' for Bitcoin to surge to a historical new high. When the bullish flag pattern confirms a breakout, long-term holders complete their position accumulation, and the US dollar index continues to be under pressure, the path for Bitcoin's advance will become exceptionally clear. This new chapter of the bull market driven by technical, capital, and macro factors has already begun.
BTC Data Analysis:
CoinAnk data shows that Bitcoin's price remains around $107,000, with the holding ratio of long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH) showing a rebound trend. Looking back at past market cycles, similar accumulation stages typically last 4 to 8 weeks. If combined with a conservative 1.6x increase prediction model, Bitcoin's future price is expected to climb further. Historical data indicates that substantial increases in LTH holdings often precede price breakthroughs, such as when LTH holdings increased at the $28,000 and $60,000 levels, catalyzing price jumps to $60,000 and $100,000, respectively.
From a research interpretation perspective, the increase in the LTH/STH ratio reflects the restoration of market confidence. Continuous accumulation by LTH reduces circulating supply, supporting Bitcoin's upward potential; however, it is essential to be cautious of key resistance levels, such as $99,900, which may trigger profit-taking. Strong buying pressure is necessary to absorb selling pressure to maintain the upward trend. If STH demand can match LTH supply, Bitcoin is likely to break through the $100,000 mark, thereby boosting the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. Historical cycle analysis has pointed to a target of $126,000, suggesting potential upside, but external risks such as regulatory changes or liquidity fluctuations must be considered. For the cryptocurrency market, a strong breakout by Bitcoin will invigorate altcoins and derivatives trading volumes, strengthening bull market expectations, but short-term pullback risks such as miner sell-offs or macro factors need close attention.
