Macro Interpretation: Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated a cautious stance on interest rate cuts at a congressional hearing, explicitly rejecting political pressure, implying that there is no hope for an interest rate cut in July, and the market expects the first interest rate cut to be postponed to December, with a magnitude of only 25 basis points. This stance has strengthened the short-term strength of the US dollar and suppressed risk asset preferences. However, Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that the Federal Reserve will launch 7 interest rate cuts in 2026, and the final interest rate will drop to 2.5%-2.75%. This long-term easing signal will inject potential momentum into crypto assets. In terms of US dollar policy, the United States is realizing the tokenization of US Treasury bonds through US dollar stablecoins, aiming to maintain its global dominance. Specifically, the United States encourages the issuance of stablecoins based on US Treasury bonds to attract cryptocurrency capital to "take over" US Treasury bonds. This is both a response to the weakening of the SWIFT system and promotes the compliance of stablecoins. For example, Coinbase recently obtained MiCA authorization in Luxembourg, becoming the first compliant US-funded exchange. At the same time, the US GENIUS Act establishes a stablecoin framework, showing a trend of regulatory integration. The EU, on the other hand, ignores the warnings of the European Central Bank and promotes its own stablecoin rules, which may lead to the differentiation of the stablecoin market, which is beneficial to decentralized stablecoin projects. Overall, policy game theory has exacerbated the short-term pressure of tightening US dollar liquidity, but interest rate cut expectations and tokenization trends provide inflation hedging attributes for #BTC , which may attract safe-haven funds in the medium and long term.
In terms of market dynamics, derivative activities and capital flow indicators are amplifying short-term volatility. More than $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire on the Deribit exchange this Friday, accounting for more than 40% of open interest, with call options dominating and the put/call ratio rising to 0.72. Market analysis shows that the maximum pain point is near $102,000, traders are generally selling straddle options, and implied volatility remains high, indicating that price volatility will intensify before expiration. This echoes the global money supply indicator that the market is paying attention to: this indicator once captured Bitcoin callback signals in advance, and the current market sentiment is highly sensitive to it. The next week is critical to verify its effectiveness, and if the indicator shows improved liquidity, it may trigger buying momentum. Recent institutional behavior has confirmed market resilience: ProCap Fund increased its holdings of $386 million BTC, corporate holdings reached 3.45 million coins, and Coinbase's stock price soared to a six-month high due to regulatory benefits. Combining network information, the current BTC price is consolidating near $65,000, and options events and capital indicators may exacerbate short-term volatility, but institutional holdings provide support for the bottom, and investors can pay attention to spread strategies.
Geopolitical risks unexpectedly disrupted the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network. The US air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordow and Natanz, on June 22, led to a sharp drop in Iran's Bitcoin computing power. Iran accounts for about 3.1% of the global mining share, and cheap electricity is its advantage, but the attack caused power outages and network interruptions, and a large number of mining machines went offline. Although this was not an intentional attack on mining, it was a side effect of the conflict, highlighting the vulnerability of the Bitcoin network to geopolitical events. A decline in computing power may weaken network security and affect transaction confirmation speed in the short term, but history shows that computing power recovers quickly, and the event has boosted the stock prices of mining companies such as Riot Platforms and Hut 8, showing that the market recognizes decentralization resistance. Combined with the rebound in risk appetite after the Middle East ceasefire (such as Nasdaq hitting a new high), geopolitical disruptions may be a short-term buying opportunity, but investors need to monitor the risk of subsequent conflict escalation.
In terms of market performance, the differentiation of crypto assets is obvious, and the narrative dominated by institutions is reshaping the landscape. US stock crypto concept stocks had a bright June: Circle soared 618% after listing, Coinbase rose 39.82%, miners Riot and Hut 8 rose 24.16% and 12.9% respectively, and SRM Entertainment, the treasury company, soared 1273% due to TRON's reverse merger. During the same period, the total market value of altcoins (excluding BTC) increased from 1.231 trillion US dollars to 1.304 trillion US dollars, an increase of 5.93%, but lagging behind US stock crypto stocks, showing that funds prefer compliant targets. This trend is consistent with the views of European analysts: after the Middle East ceasefire, investors' preferences shifted to technology stocks (such as Magnificent 7), and Coinbase's regulatory breakthroughs and institutional holdings of BTC highlighted the linkage between crypto and AI/technology sectors. Comprehensively, the rise in crypto stocks and the recovery of altcoins reflect the repair of market risk preferences, but BTC benefits from institutional holdings and performs more steadily. In terms of impact, policy delays and geopolitical events may suppress short-term gains, but the tokenization trend and institutional entry provide BTC with "digital gold" attributes. In the medium and long term, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, BTC may break through its previous high, and the computing power event warns that network decentralization needs to be strengthened. Investors should focus on compliant platforms and BTC spot ETF inflows, and avoid high-volatility altcoins.
The crypto market in mid-2025 will usher in a turning point in policy, geopolitics and capital waves. BTC is under short-term pressure from delayed interest rate cuts and computing power disruptions, but institutional holdings and improved regulatory frameworks have built a solid bottom, and it is expected to lead the rise in the tokenization trend in the medium and long term. It is recommended that investors balance positions, give priority to BTC and compliant targets, and monitor currency indicators and option market signals. In the coming year, the real test of the crypto market will be whether it can turn volatility into sustainable growth.
BTC Data Analysis:
CoinAnk data shows that the computing power of the entire BTC network declined significantly in late June 2025, mainly because the US military's air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities affected the power system, causing a significant decline in mining activities in Iran, which accounts for more than 3% of the global share. The interruption of cheap electricity caused mining machines to go offline. Although it was not directly targeted at mining, it exposed the potential weaknesses of the Bitcoin network in geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, the decline in computing power may weaken transaction confirmation efficiency and affect security, but historical experience shows that mining difficulty adjustments will attract miners to return and recover relatively quickly.
Such events highlight that although Bitcoin's decentralized nature is resilient, it is vulnerable to external disruptions. For the crypto market, the short-term BTC price is under pressure, falling below $100,000 and triggering a large-scale liquidation. However, the rise in the stock prices of mining companies reflects the market's recognition of system resistance. The rebound in risk appetite in the Middle East may bring buying opportunities, but investors need to be wary of sustained volatility caused by escalating conflicts and avoid leverage risk. Overall, the long-term trend of BTC still depends on fundamentals, not a single geopolitical event.