Directory:
1. This week's data on large token unlocks;
2. Overview of the cryptocurrency market, a quick read of the weekly popular coins' price changes/fund flows by sector;
3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;
4. #BTC liquidation map data interpretation;
5. Key macro events and important forecasts and interpretations for the cryptocurrency market this week.
1. This week's data on large token unlocks;
Coinank data shows that tokens like BLAST, VENOM, SOON, etc., will experience significant unlocks this week (the following is in UTC+8 time), among which:
Blast (BLAST) will unlock approximately 1.05 billion tokens at 10 PM on June 26, accounting for 34.98% of the current circulation, valued at about $22.5 million;
Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4 PM on June 25, accounting for 2.84% of the current circulation, valued at about $10 million;
SOON (SOON) will unlock approximately 41.88 million tokens at 4:30 PM on June 23, accounting for 22.41% of the current circulation, valued at about $8.4 million;
AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6 PM on June 25, accounting for 6.83% of the current circulation, valued at about $6.7 million;
Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock approximately 2.15 million tokens at 8 AM on June 26, accounting for 2.13% of the current circulation, valued at about $2.3 million;
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 15.16 million tokens at 8 AM on June 25, accounting for 0.39% of the current circulation, valued at about $2.3 million;
Velo (VELO) will unlock approximately 18.2 million tokens at 8 AM on June 26, accounting for 2.47% of the current circulation, valued at about $2.1 million;
Yield Guild Games (#YGG ) will unlock approximately 14.08 million tokens at 10 PM on June 27, accounting for 2.68% of the current circulation, valued at about $1.9 million;
SingularityNET (#agix ) will unlock approximately 7.15 million tokens at 8 AM on June 28, accounting for 2.38% of the current circulation, valued at about $1.9 million;
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) will unlock approximately 3.1 million tokens at 8 AM on June 28, accounting for 0.12% of the current circulation, valued at about $1.9 million.
We believe that from the perspective of token economics, unlocking events will significantly increase market supply, potentially triggering short-term price fluctuations, especially when the unlocking ratio is high (like BLAST at 34.98%), increasing the risk of supply-demand imbalance. According to dynamic valuation models, the token value is mainly driven by user trading demand rather than traditional cash flow discounting; after unlocking, the influx of new tokens into the market may depress prices, but if it can accelerate platform adoption (e.g., by lowering transaction costs), it may instead reinforce network effects and stabilize long-term value. Historical data show that similar events (like the ALT and OP unlocks in June 2024) are often accompanied by downward price pressure, and investors need to be wary of the spread of market panic, especially in high-ratio projects. Additionally, the design of tradable tokens may amplify secondary market volatility, as users tend to cash out quickly after unlocking, further exacerbating sell-off risks.
This week's total unlock value is approximately $60 million, although lower than historical peaks, the concentrated release of projects such as BLAST still constitutes a localized shock. It is recommended that investors pay attention to user adoption indicators (such as active addresses) to distinguish between short-term disturbances and fundamental changes, while using the S-curve model to predict adoption stages, avoiding blind following. In terms of risk management, it is advisable to diversify holdings and monitor liquidity changes to cope with potential volatility.
2. Overview of the cryptocurrency market, a quick read of the weekly popular coins' price changes/fund flows
CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, within the cryptocurrency market categorized by concept sectors, only the Binance Smart Chain achieved a net inflow of funds, while Launchpool, fan tokens, RWA, and Brc20 saw relatively minor outflows.
In the past 7 days, the token increase rankings are as follows (selected from the top 500 by market cap), #fun , #LQTY , SEI, AERGO, T and OKB and other tokens have relatively higher increases, and this week can continue to prioritize strong token trading opportunities.
3. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics.
CoinAnk data shows that last week, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $1.02 billion in a single week. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflow last week was Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT, with a net inflow of $1.23 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net outflow last week was the ETF ARKB from Ark Invest and 21Shares, with a net outflow of $188 million.
The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is currently $126.54 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market cap relative to total Bitcoin market cap) of 6.14%, and historical cumulative net inflows have reached $46.66 billion.
We believe that last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs showed significant differentiation, with a net outflow of $1.02 billion, reflecting that short-term market sentiment fluctuations may stem from profit-taking or macro factors, such as Federal Reserve policy expectations. Notably, Blackrock's IBIT saw a counter-trend net inflow of $1.23 billion, highlighting its institutional appeal and market leadership, which may benefit from Blackrock's brand advantage and continuous accumulation strategy. In contrast, ARKB saw a net outflow of $188 million, which may be related to internal strategy adjustments or changes in investor risk appetite.
Overall, the total net asset value of ETFs has reached $126.54 billion, with a net asset ratio of 6.14%, and historical cumulative net inflows of $46.66 billion, indicating that Bitcoin ETFs have become mainstream financial instruments with strong long-term capital inflows. This differentiation highlights the increased maturity of the market, where short-term fluctuations do not affect structural trends, and institutional participation (like Blackrock) remains a core driving force. In the future, attention should be paid to macroeconomic indicators and regulatory dynamics to predict capital flows.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks through $108,900, the cumulative short liquidation intensity at major CEX will reach $8.98 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin drops below $95,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity at major CEX will reach $2.35 billion.
We believe that Bitcoin liquidation data reveals a significant escalation of market leverage risks and an extreme trend in the long-short game. According to the latest liquidation map, the intensity of short liquidations will surge nearly eightfold compared to the $1.012 billion at the breakout of $100,000 in May; if it's a downward trend, the intensity of long liquidations will expand over tenfold compared to the $229 million threshold in February. This reflects the accumulation of leverage risks, with liquidation thresholds continuously rising, showing that speculators are piling on leverage at higher price levels, leading to increased market vulnerability.
There is also a liquidity siphoning effect; liquidation intensity is not the actual amount but rather an indicator of the "relative severity" of liquidity shocks when prices are reached. The current short position intensity of $8.98 billion suggests that a breakthrough at key levels may trigger a "short squeeze"—a wave of buying triggered by forced liquidations or a self-reinforcing upward trend; while the long position intensity of $2.35 billion exposes the risk of a "long liquidation chain reaction" during pullbacks. We need to pay attention to market structural differentiation, as the gap in long and short liquidation scales has evolved from early equilibrium to a current disparity of nearly 4 times, indicating that shorts are betting more aggressively in historically high regions, potentially leading to extreme volatility.
The liquidation position may have become a "life and death line" for long and short positions, and any directional breakthrough could trigger significant market shocks due to forced liquidation mechanisms. Investors need to be vigilant against the amplifying effect of liquidity whirlpools.
5. Key macro events and important forecasts and interpretations for the cryptocurrency market this week.
CoinAnk data shows:
June 23, Monday: The Governor of the Bank of Korea will meet with commercial bank presidents, expected to discuss issues like the Korean won stablecoin; Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak on monetary policy and the banking sector.
On June 24, Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver semi-annual monetary policy report testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.
On June 25, Wednesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will present testimony on the semi-annual monetary policy report at the Senate Committee; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak.
On June 26, Thursday: The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending June 21 (ten thousand), previous value 24.5.
On June 27, Friday: The U.S. May core PCE price index annual rate, expected 2.60%, previous value 2.50%; the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for June, previous value 60.5.
Deribit: Bitcoin options will have the largest quarterly settlement this Friday, with a maximum pain point of $100,000; CoinList will open the Pipe Network (PIPE) token sale;
June 28, Saturday: The Thai SEC will block many cryptocurrency platforms.
We believe that the core focus of this week's macro events and cryptocurrency market forecasts is on the impact of policy communication, economic data, and regulatory changes on market uncertainty. Firstly, the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell before Congress is a key event. Historical research shows that the forward guidance of central bank communication (such as interest rate cut signals) has a far greater impact on market expectations than the current economic situation description; a dovish stance may boost risk assets, but hawkish rhetoric will increase volatility, especially in policy-sensitive areas like cryptocurrencies. This is due to the increased transparency of central banks, making the market more sensitive to policy signals, which may lead to changes in short-term capital flows.
The release of economic data (such as the core PCE price index on June 27) will test the resilience of the U.S. economy. If the data is weaker than expected, it may reinforce rate cut expectations, driving a rebound in the cryptocurrency market and other risk assets; conversely, strong data may amplify "higher for longer" concerns, increasing volatility. As a measure of inflation, changes in PCE may also affect exchange rates and cross-border capital flows, indirectly impacting liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.
In the cryptocurrency market, large-scale settlements of Bitcoin options (maximum pain point of $100,000) may trigger short-term price fluctuations, compounded by policy uncertainties (such as Federal Reserve speeches), which easily lead to liquidation risks in leveraged positions. Meanwhile, the Thai SEC's blocking of multiple exchanges highlights regulatory divergence, similar events have previously elevated regional policy uncertainty, suppressing investment confidence, but have limited impact on the global market. Tether's reserve behavior of holding over 100,000 BTC, while aimed at enhancing stability, may not completely offset macro shocks in a highly uncertain environment.
In summary, the intertwining of events this week will exacerbate uncertainty in economic policy, with Federal Reserve communication being the dominant variable, potentially transmitting market sentiment to the cryptocurrency sector, and caution is needed for the chain reactions of data and regulation.
