Table of contents:
1. Large token unlock data this week;
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read of the weekly popular coins' gains/losses/fund flows;
3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;
4. #BTC liquidation map data interpretation;
5. Key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the crypto market this week.
1. Large token unlock data this week;
Coinank data shows that this week, tokens such as SUI, ENA, and DYDX will experience large unlocks, as follows in UTC+8 time:
Sui (SUI) will unlock 44 million tokens on July 1 at 8:00, worth approximately $127 million, accounting for 1.3% of the circulation;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on July 2 at 15:00, worth approximately $11.29 million, accounting for 0.67% of the circulation;
DYDX (DYDX) will unlock 4.17 million tokens on July 1 at 8:00, worth approximately $2.25 million, accounting for 0.56% of the circulation;
EigenCloud (#eigen ) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on July 1 at 23:00, worth approximately $1.57 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulation.
We believe that the large unlock events of tokens such as SUI, ENA, DYDX, and EIGEN this week, although routine market operations, need to be wary of their potential impacts. Token unlocks are usually seen as bearish factors, as early investors or team members may sell for cash, increasing market supply and causing short-term downward price pressure; especially in a high-volatility environment, such events are likely to amplify market sentiment fluctuations, leading to liquidity tightening. However, the unlocking ratios this time are generally low, accounting for a maximum of 1.3% and a minimum of 0.41% of the circulation, and historical data shows that small unlocks have limited overall market impact, often buffered by project fundamentals or external factors.
As a leader in decentralized derivatives, DYDX's independent chain ecosystem is performing strongly, with a relatively high staking rate, and the profit distribution mechanism has shifted to community token holders, which may enhance long-term confidence and partially offset unlocking pressure. In contrast, while SUI is positioned as a high-performance public chain, the unlocking value is relatively high (approximately $127 million), so market absorption capacity needs to be monitored; whereas ENA and EIGEN have smaller unlocking scales, potentially leading to weaker impacts. Investors are advised to prioritize examining project technological progress and ecosystem health rather than short-term events. In the current market environment, unlocking events may induce localized volatility, but systemic risks are controllable, with robust projects like DYDX expected to exhibit resilience.
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read of the weekly popular coins' gains/losses/fund flows
CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, the crypto market, categorized by conceptual sectors, only Binance Smart Chain, AI big data, gaming sector, fan tokens, and RWA achieved a net inflow of funds, with Launchpool experiencing a smaller outflow.
In the past 7 days, the token gains leaderboard is as follows (selecting the top 500 by market capitalization): #ESX , #CTK , #pengu , MOVE, SEI, and MOG are among the top gainers, and this week, strong tokens should continue to be prioritized for trading opportunities.
3. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics.
CoinAnk data shows that last week, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $2.22 billion, continuing three weeks of net inflows. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-week net inflow was Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT, with a weekly net inflow of $1.31 billion, bringing IBIT's total historical net inflow to $52.31 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-week net outflow was Grayscale ETF GBTC, with a single-week net outflow of $5.69 million, bringing GBTC's total historical net outflow to $23.25 billion.
We believe this reflects the sustained growing interest of institutional investors in Bitcoin, supporting Bitcoin's positioning as a speculative asset, where fund inflows primarily stem from expectations of high returns rather than actual payment purposes. Overall net inflows indicate that market confidence is solid, which may boost Bitcoin demand and stabilize prices, while GBTC's outflows highlight some investors' profit-taking behavior. For the crypto market, especially BTC, this reinforces its role as a diversified investment tool, potentially driving short-term price increases. Although the market is volatile (such as a net outflow of $2.61 billion in February 2025), the ongoing net inflow trend suggests that the Bitcoin market is becoming more efficient, with institutional participation accelerating this process. However, historical data warns of high volatility risks, and investors should pay attention to fund flows and changes in market sentiment.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks through $112,000 and reaches a new historical high, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $3.27 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $104,500, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $6.75 billion.
Considering that BTC has been oscillating at high levels around $100,000-$110,000 for nearly two months, it is approaching a turning point.
We believe that liquidation intensity is not the actual amount to be liquidated but is measured by comparing the density of adjacent price liquidation clusters to gauge the potential severity of market liquidity shocks once prices reach certain levels. Current data shows that if BTC breaks through $112,000 to reach a new historical high, the $3.27 billion short liquidation intensity may trigger a 'short squeeze' effect—where a large number of shorts are forced to close their positions, accelerating buy orders and forming a positive feedback loop that drives prices up, consistent with historical market behavior when breaking critical resistance levels. Conversely, if it falls below $104,500, the $6.75 billion long liquidation intensity exposes the vulnerability of high-leverage long positions, potentially triggering a 'long kill long' chain reaction, leading to panic selling and amplifying short-term downside risks, highlighting extreme gaming at key price levels in the market. Overall, this threshold range reflects the deep confrontation between bulls and bears, and investors should be wary of market fluctuations triggered by liquidity waves, while reasonably controlling leverage to avoid cascading risks.
5. Key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the crypto market this week.
CoinAnk data shows:
On June 30, Monday, the U.S. June Chicago PMI; Binance Wallet launches NodeOps (NODE) exclusive TGE;
On July 1, Tuesday, the U.S. June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value; U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs job vacancies, May Construction Spending monthly rate;
On July 2, Wednesday, the U.S. June ADP employment figures;
On July 3, Thursday, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 21, May Trade Balance; U.S. June Non-Farm Report and June Unemployment Rate will be released in advance;
On July 4, Friday, the U.S. June S&P Global Services PMI final value; U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, May Factory Orders monthly rate; Musk: Grok 4 is expected to be released after July 4.
From June 30 to July 6, many Federal Reserve officials will speak; Trump predicts that the U.S. will hold talks with Iran this week.
We believe that the June Chicago PMI and July 1 ISM Manufacturing PMI constitute a leading indicator combination, and we need to be wary of signals of 'temporary improvement' in manufacturing. If the data exceeds expectations, it may confirm a production recovery driven by supply chain repair; if it falls short of expectations, it will reinforce concerns about stagflation. The service sector PMI (July 4) requires more attention, as history shows that unexpected contractions have triggered severe market volatility, and the current service sector significantly contributes to inflation stickiness.
The structural contradictions in the labor market are deepening: Looking at the JOLTs job vacancies combined with ADP employment: if job vacancies continue to exceed unemployment numbers (current ratio is 1.2), it will highlight the mismatch in the labor market. Special attention should be paid to the heightened risk of occupational mismatch among highly educated groups, as well as the unusual occurrence of 'no job vacancies recruitment' exceeding 16%. The advance release of non-farm data may imply volatility risks, and the analysis of wage growth's transmission to Federal Reserve policy is crucial.
Trump predicts U.S.-Iran talks combined with intensive speeches from Federal Reserve officials may amplify market sensitivity. History shows that political cycles can distort economic data interpretation, and geopolitical conflicts, if they drive up oil prices, will strengthen cost pressures in the service sector. Technological events (such as the release of Grok 4) may serve as a risk appetite adjuster, but caution is needed regarding liquidity siphoning effects.
The core contradiction lies in whether the manufacturing PMI strengthens but the service PMI declines, combined with non-farm wage growth exceeding expectations, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance during the political cycle, exacerbating the 'tightening-recession' expectation game. It is recommended to adopt a dynamic mismatch model to track cross-sector data divergence and be wary of the combination risk of a 'high vacancy rate + low turnover rate' in the job market.
In the short term (the data-intensive period will amplify volatility, if non-farm data exceeds 200,000 or ISM service PMI > 55, it may trigger 'hawkish panic' causing BTC to test key support; conversely, if employment weakens (ADP < 150,000), it will boost interest rate cut expectations and push prices higher. The medium-term trend indicates that institutional entry still provides support, but tariff policies and geopolitical variables such as U.S.-Iran talks may become new sources of disruption. BTC may exhibit high volatility this week, and it is advisable to pay attention to market pricing changes regarding the Fed's September rate cut probability before and after the non-farm release, as this will be a key catalyst for directional choice.
