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Ethereum Trading Strategy for July 21 (High at 3824/Low at 3632)

Long Strategy

1. Support Level Layout: If the price stabilizes near 3632 after a pullback (for example, if the hourly chart continuously closes bullish or breaks the 5/10 moving average crossover), a small position can be entered for a long trade, targeting the 3720-3750 range. This is similar to the strategy in gold trading, relying on the support at 3330-3340 for low-risk longs, combined with technical confirmation of support validity.

2. Breakout Follow-up: If the price stabilizes above 3750 (a daily level breakout above the upper Bollinger Band), it can be seen as a signal of increased bullish momentum. Additional positions can be added on a pullback near 3720, targeting the previous high at 3824. This is analogous to gold's strategy of looking for 3400 after breaking 3375.

Short Strategy

1. Resistance Level Game: If the price first touches near 3824 (the previous daily high or a top divergence pattern on the 4-hour chart), a small position can be attempted for a short trade, targeting 3720-3680. This is similar to the logic of gold being pressured in the 3370-3375 resistance range.

2. False Breakout Pullback: If the price quickly spikes above 3850 and then falls below 3820 (forming a long upper shadow on the hourly chart), it can be seen as a false breakout signal. A short position can be entered on a pullback near 3800, targeting a return to 3700.

News Analysis

- Positive Factors: Pay attention to U.S. inflation data if it comes in lower than expected (similar to the logic of a weakening dollar in gold analysis), which may drive a recovery in risk appetite in the crypto market. Increases in Ethereum ETF inflows or heightened Layer 2 ecosystem activity will strengthen bullish expectations.

- Negative Factors: If regulatory agencies signal restrictions on cryptocurrency trading (such as SEC investigations into exchanges), or if U.S. stocks experience significant corrections leading to liquidity contraction, it may suppress Ethereum's rebound potential. This is similar to the gold market's sensitivity to central bank policies and geopolitical events.

Core Strategy: Focus on high selling and low buying within the 3632-3824 range during the day, and follow the trend after breakouts. Prioritize observing the price's momentum performance at key levels (such as volume changes, candlestick patterns), and adjust positions based on real-time news.

#以太坊突破3700 $ETH

Ethereum was pushed down again from a high of 3694, with three stop losses in one day! Are there still brothers in 'digital oil' experiencing both long and short kills today?

Whales withdrew 120,000 ETH in a week! Are they going to stake it or are they preparing to dump it?

#ETH突破3600
$ETH

Ethereum 7.20 Daily Market Analysis and Entry Strategy Reference

I. Long Strategy (Support Level Play)
1. Entry Conditions
- When the price retraces to the 3550-3525 range, observe if there are more than 3 consecutive bullish candles on the 15-minute level
- With trading volume moderately increasing (15%+ growth compared to the average of the previous hour)

2. News Catalysts
- The U.S. 'Genius Act' has been officially signed, and the establishment of a stablecoin regulatory framework may boost liquidity in the crypto market
- The rise in rubber raw materials in Thailand suggests a potential spillover effect from commodities to the digital asset space

3. Target Setting
- First target at 3620 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)
- If it breaks through 3647 (high point on July 19), look for the pressure zone at 3694

II. Short Strategy (Resistance Level Pullback)
1. Entry Conditions
- When the price reaches the 3680-3694 range and the 1-hour RSI > 70
- The MACD histogram shows a top divergence for 2 consecutive hours

2. News Coordination
- Explosion incident at U.S. diplomatic facilities in Baghdad, geopolitical risks may trigger short-term risk aversion
- Iran's declaration on nuclear facility reconstruction, if it escalates tensions in the Middle East, may suppress risk assets

3. Target Setting
- First look at the 3620 neckline (the oscillation center on July 18)
- If it falls below 3580 (Bollinger Band middle track), look for 3545 as golden ratio support

III. Long and Short Critical Monitoring
- Key Indicator: U.S. July Manufacturing PMI (to be released at 22:00 Beijing time) if below 50, strengthens easing expectations which is bullish for the crypto market
- On-chain Data: Monitor the change in the staking volume of Ethereum 2.0 contract addresses; a daily increase of over 50,000 ETH would be bullish

(Strategies need to adjust based on real-time volatility, with a focus on the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and U.S. unemployment claims data's impact on the dollar index)
#ETH突破3600 $ETH

The following are the seven fundamental elements distilled from the core risks and operational guidelines of contract leverage trading. Take what you need, just like when you take a driving test; without theoretical questions, how can you know the questions and answers without reason?

1. Platform Selection: Safety First
- ✓ Must Do: Choose a licensed and compliant exchange with fund isolation and stable systems (e.g., Binance).
- ✘ Must Not Do: Seek high leverage or low fees while ignoring the platform's qualifications and security vulnerabilities.

2. Knowledge Reserve: Reject Blindness
- ✓ Must Do: Systematically learn about contract mechanisms, candlestick analysis, and liquidation rules.
- ✘ Must Not Do: Place orders based on intuition or following the crowd, ignoring professional terms and market dynamics.

3. Strategy Formulation: Strictly Adhere to Discipline
- ✓ Must Do: Strictly execute quick entry and exit, combining news-driven actions for short-term entries.
- ✘ Must Not Do: Hold positions against the trend, fully betting on a single asset, and refuse to adjust strategies.

4. Position Management: Core of Risk Control
- ✓ Must Do: Strictly control leverage (suggested ≤ 100x), reserve 50% margin as a buffer.
- ✘ Must Not Do: Fully leverage low positions (e.g., 25x) for returns while ignoring the maintenance margin red line.

5. Risk Tools: Active Defense
- ✓ Must Do: Use market orders and planned orders, monitor risk limit rules.
- ✘ Must Not Do: Open positions without protection, ignoring volatility and black swan event plans.

6. Capital Efficiency: Rational Allocation
- ✓ Must Do: Use only idle funds (≤ 60% of total assets), dynamically adjust leverage to adapt to market conditions.
- ✘ Must Not Do: Borrowing to make up positions or investing living expenses, falling into a debt trap.

7. Mindset Control: Counteracting Human Nature
- ✓ Must Do: Exit profits in a timely manner, calmly review losses, trade ≤ 3 times daily.
- ✘ Must Not Do: Revenge trading after losses, being greedy during profitable times.

Summary Warning:
> Leverage is a wealth amplifier and also a mirror reflecting human nature. Those who strictly adhere to discipline survive, while the greedy and lucky perish.
> Remember: A liquidation can happen with just one mistake; being alive allows for the possibility of compound interest.

#交易认知 $BTC $ETH $XRP

Ethereum 7.18 and 7.19 Real-Time Market Review

📊 I. Market Trend Comparison
- July 18 - Price Range: Highest $3675 (recent monthly high), Lowest $3455, Daily Increase Narrowed to 4.86%, Closing at $3584, Technical Pattern: Six Consecutive Daily Gains, EMA Moving Average Bullish Arrangement, Bollinger Band Upper Track Points to $3745; However, the four-hour chart shows a 'Double Top Trap' signal, RSI-7 Reached 93.74 (Extremely Overbought).

- July 19 - Price Range: High $3673 (not breaking previous high), Low $3477, Volatility Narrowed. Technical Changes: EMA15 Support Moved Down to $3450, MACD Top Divergence Continues, Short-term Pullback Pressure Increases, Need to Pay Attention to $3525 Neckline Support.

💰 II. Capital Dynamics and Open Interest

- ETF Capital Inflow: On July 18, Single Day Net Inflow of $192 Million (BlackRock Accounts for $171 Million), Cumulative Over $730 Million in July, Institutional Lock-In Caused Circulation Tightening.
- Contract Open Interest: On July 17, Total Network ETH Contract Open Interest Exceeded $50.2 Billion (Historical High), But the Growth Rate of Open Contracts Slowed on the 19th, Long and Short Discrepancy Increased.

🏛️ III. Policy and News Comparison

- July 18 Good News: The U.S. House of Representatives Passed the 'GENIUS Act' (Stablecoin Regulatory Framework) and the 'CLARITY Act' (Digital Asset Positioning), Eliminating Regulatory Uncertainty. Nasdaq Proposal Allows ETH ETF Staking, Increasing Long-Term Holding Appeal.
- July 19 Focus: Market Digests Policy Good News, Attention on Progress of Trump Signing the Bill, Bitcoin Hits $120,000 Diverting Funds, ETH/BTC Dominance Slightly Drops to 0.028.

🎉💰💰💰 Entry Strategy Reference

1. Long Strategy: Entry Timing - If Price Pulls Back to $3480-$3500 Range (Approaching Daily Low of $3477), Can Accumulate in Batches.

2. Target and Catalysts - Short-Term Target $3620-$3650 (Approaching Yearly High), If Breakthrough, Look at $3673+.

1. Long Strategy: Entry Timing - If Price Reaches $3660-$3673 Range (Previous High Resistance), Can Lightly Short.

2. Target and Risk Control - Target Lower at $3550-$3520 (Daily Support Area), Key Trigger Point: If U.S. 401(k) New Policy Details Are Delayed, It May Trigger Speculative Fund Exit; Liquidation Data Shows Intense Long-Short Games (24-Hour Total Network Liquidation $927 Million), High Positions Likely to Experience Technical Pullbacks.
Market Volatility Emotional Area Risk Control, Investment Requires Caution!
#ETH突破3600 $ETH

Ethereum Entry Strategy Reference for July 18

📈 1. Long Strategy:
1. Entry Range: 3380-3400
- Technical Basis: On July 18, Ethereum broke through $3600, achieving a new high since January, but there is a technical correction demand after rebounding from 3344 to 3646 in the early morning. A pullback to 3380-3400 (previous key resistance turned support zone) can be seen as an opportunity for long positions.
- Target: In the short term, look for 3550-3600; if it breaks through 3646, there is hope to test the 3800 level. #ETH突破3600

2. News-Driven Factors:
- The U.S. House of Representatives passed the GENIUS Act, clarifying the regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring transparency in reserves, which is a medium to long-term positive for cryptocurrency liquidity.
- Market sentiment is high, with Ethereum rising over 7% in 24 hours, and XRP, Dogecoin, and others rising over 10%, with noticeable capital inflow.

📉 2. Short Strategy
1. Entry Range: 3640-3650
- Technical Basis: 3646 is the intraday high, and the pressure at the January high is significant. If the price struggles above 3640, combined with the overbought signal on the 4-hour RSI, a small short position can be attempted.
- Target: Look down to the psychological support at 3500; if it breaks, pay attention to the 3400 level. #美国众议院通过三项加密货币法案

2. News Risk Warning:
- After the bill is implemented, there is a possibility of "buy the rumor, sell the news," and nearly 160,000 people were liquidated in the past 24 hours (with 61% of positions being shorts), indicating increased market volatility.
- If Trump does not sign the bill or add supplementary terms, it may trigger short-term selling pressure.

💡 3. Key News Analysis
- Core Impact of the GENIUS Act: Requires stablecoins to have sufficient reserves in USD/Treasuries, enhancing market transparency and reducing regulatory uncertainty, which will support coin prices in the long term.
- Ripple Effect: Bitcoin breaks through $120,000, leading to a broad rise in the crypto market, but caution is needed for pullback risks caused by high volatility (with $587 million liquidated in 24 hours). #美国众议院通过三项加密货币法案

> Strategy Summary: Long positions rely on support at 3380-3400, while short positions should be cautiously considered above 3640; closely monitor Trump's signing of the bill and market sentiment in the U.S. stocks. The current trend is mainly toward low long positions, and caution is needed when chasing high positions.
#ETH突破3600 $ETH

Ethereum (ETH) July 17 Night Operation Strategy:

1. Long Strategy: Seize rebound opportunities on dips
1. Entry Zones:
- Core Support Zone (3190-3220): If the price pulls back and stabilizes in this range, gradual long positions can be established. This area is close to the buffer zone above the July 17 low (3146), where technical support from bulls exists.
- Aggressive Zone (near 3250): If a quick drop occurs followed by a 15-minute level bottom divergence signal, consider a light long position.

2. News Coordination:
- US Initial Jobless Claims Data (released at 20:30): If the data worsens beyond expectations (indicating a weak job market), it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, driving risk assets to rebound.
- Liquidity impact during flood prevention critical period: The domestic market enters the "July down, August up" flood prevention period, and if extreme weather triggers market risk-averse sentiment, it may indirectly boost the demand for crypto assets as a hedge.

2. Short Strategy: Intervene at high resistance zones
1. Entry Zones:
- Strong Resistance Zone (3420-3450): Close to the previous high of 3482; if the price stagnates and a 1-hour level top formation appears, short positions can be gradually established.
- Secondary Resistance Zone (3380-3400): If the rebound strength weakens and trading volume declines, consider a light counter position.

2. News Coordination:
- Inflation expectations fluctuate: If initial jobless claims data is better than expected (indicating a strong job market), it may weaken interest rate cut expectations, support the dollar, and suppress the crypto market.
- Policy and Regulatory Dynamics: Pay attention to interpretations of new regulations for technology enterprise incubators in the domestic market (e.g., "Management Measures for Technology-based Enterprise Incubators"); if it involves regulatory trends for digital currencies, it may trigger selling pressure.

3. Comprehensive Operational Points
1. Long-Short Boundary Reference:
- Breaking above 3380: Short-term bulls strengthen, shorts need to be cautious;
- Breaking below 3220: Support weakens, longs need to exit protectively.
2. Position Management:
- Do not exceed 5% position for a single trade to avoid risks from sudden news fluctuations.
3. Data-Driven Priority:
- Before 20:30: Mainly wait and observe for guidance from initial jobless claims data;
- After data release: Follow the market trend based on price reactions (e.g., buying on rebounds once bearish news is fully priced in, selling on bullish news that leads to stagnation).
#以太坊连续两日领涨 #美国加密周 $ETH

Ethereum July 16th Trading Strategy Analysis Reference

1. Technical Key Levels

- High Resistance: 3150-3160 area (Yesterday's high of 3153.84 USD).

- Low Support: 3080-3100 range (Ideal entry point for long positions).

- Oscillation Center: Recently frequently spiking in the 3000-3150 range, lacking directional continuity.

2. Long Strategy

1. Entry Timing:

- If it retraces to the 3080-3100 area, can gradually build long positions, targeting 3180-3200.

- If it stabilizes above 3120, can lightly follow up with short-term longs, betting on a second surge.

2. Logical Basis:

- Independent Market Drivers: Ethereum broke through 3100 USD against the trend yesterday, capital rotation may kickstart altcoin markets.

- Technical Repair Demand: After multiple spikes, there is rebound momentum, with effective support from hourly moving averages.

3. Short Strategy

1. Entry Timing:

- If it rebounds to the 3150-3160 area, can short with a target down to 3080-3100.

- If it continues to struggle to break 3150 resistance, can preemptively build light positions.

2. Logical Basis:

- Top Pressure Confirmation: Multiple spikes above 3150 followed by pullbacks form short-term strong resistance.

- Market Sentiment Divergence: Bitcoin, affected by CPI data, pulled back to 115,700 USD, potentially pressuring ETH.

4. Key Influences from News

1. Aftermath of CPI Data:

- The U.S. June CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with the dollar index soaring to 98.5, suppressing risk assets.

- However, Ethereum has shown resilience; if the subsequent PPI data eases (to be released on the evening of July 16), it may boost the crypto market.

2. Capital Rotation Opportunities:

- During Bitcoin's oscillation, funds may shift towards ETH and altcoins, with short-term volatility enhancing swing trading.

Strategy Explanation: Ethereum is showing a short-term oscillation leaning towards bullishness, but caution is needed for Bitcoin's correlation risks. Operationally, it's recommended to trade in and out quickly to avoid overnight volatility.

#ETH突破3000 $ETH

7.1 5th Bitcoin Intraday Analysis and Entry Strategy Reference

#CPI数据来袭 $BTC I. Long Strategy (Buy on Dips)
1. Entry Trigger Conditions
- If the price retraces and stabilizes in the 118,000-119,500 range, consider building a position in batches, combined with a moderate increase in volume.
- News support: Recent surge in short covering (over $318 million in a single day) indicates bullish market sentiment; support will be strengthened if there are news of institutional holdings increase or ETF fund inflows.
2. Target and Risk Control
- First target: $121,000 (previous high psychological level)
- Second target: Above $123,000 (needs to break and hold above the July 14 high).

II. Short Strategy (High-Level Game)
1. Entry Trigger Conditions
- If the price rises rapidly to the 122,500-123,300 range and stalls (e.g., a long upper shadow appears on the 15-minute chart or MACD divergence), you can try shorting with a light position.
- News basis: Some investors have cashed out at historical highs, and the technical aspect anticipates a "retest of highs encountering selling pressure".
2. Target and Follow-up
- Initial target: $120,000 (round number and short-term support)
- Deep target: $118,500 (if the market suddenly experiences regulatory rumors or giant whale address changes).

III. Key News Clues
- Bullish Catalysts:
- Continued institutional entry (e.g., new Bitcoin ETF applications) or rising expectations of a Fed rate cut.
- On-chain data shows long-term holders reluctant to sell, reducing circulating supply.
- Bearish Catalysts:
- Sudden large transfers on exchanges (suspected pre-sale signals).
- Resurgence of regulatory uncertainty such as the U.S. SEC delaying spot ETF approvals.

IV. Operational Rhythm Recommendations
- Asian Session (Current): Observe mainly, focusing on the 118,500-122,000 range fluctuation.
- European and American Sessions: Cooperate with news trends (such as US stock market opening linkage, economic data release) and choose opportunities to break through and follow up.
- Key Validation Signal: Breaking through $123,300 needs to be accompanied by increased trading volume (>20% of the previous day); a drop below $118,000 will suspend the long plan.

> Note: The above strategy is based on historical price fluctuation patterns and publicly available market information integration - actual execution needs to be combined with real-time market adjustments. Market fluctuations are severe, and position management is the first principle.

Ethereum July 15th Trading Strategy (Based on Historical Trends and Market Sentiment)
1. Long Strategy
1. Key Support Zone Layout
The current price high of 3083 and low of 2931 forms a consolidation range. If the price pulls back to the 2950-2980 range during the day without a significant breakout, it can be viewed as a technical correction buying point. Referring to the market consensus formed after breaking the 3000 USD mark on July 11th, this level has a psychological support effect, and combined with a volume contraction stabilization signal, one can enter in batches, targeting the 3050-3080 area.
2. News Resonance Opportunity
If favorable on-chain data appears (such as whale addresses increasing their holdings, or an increase in staking rates) or signals of macro policy easing (such as rising expectations for Fed rate cuts), one can expedite entry after the price stabilizes above 3000 USD, betting on a breakout above the previous high of 3083 towards 3100-3150. It is necessary to pay attention to the holding data from mainstream exchanges and the progress of ETH 2.0-related technical upgrades.

2. Short Strategy
1. Testing the High-Pressure Zone
If the price first touches the 3080-3100 area and shows a 15-minute top divergence or a decrease in trading volume, one can lightly short, targeting a return to the 3000 round number and the 2950 support. Referring to the short-term selling pressure logic after the price surged to 3000 USD on July 13th and failed to maintain its strength.
2. Event-Driven Short Selling
Be cautious of sudden regulatory news (such as the SEC delaying ETH ETF approval) or security incidents in DeFi protocols (such as cross-chain bridge vulnerabilities being exposed). Such risk events could trigger a rapid pullback to the 2900-2930 range. It is necessary to combine CoinGlass long-short position ratio data to predict market sentiment shifts.

3. Comprehensive News Analysis
- Positive Drivers: The Ethereum ecosystem has been continuously active recently, and market confidence has strengthened after breaking the 3000 USD mark on July 11th. If L2 network transaction volume reaches new highs or core protocol upgrades (such as Verkle Trees deployment) are realized, it may catalyze a secondary surge.
- Potential Risks: Avoid the impact of corrections in the US tech sector causing correlated declines in the crypto market, as well as short-term liquidity disturbances caused by concentrated liquidation of CME Ethereum futures positions. It is advisable to pay attention to the overall impact of the ECB interest rate decision (July 15th) on risk assets.

> Trading Advice: The current market is in a high-level consolidation phase, suggesting a baseline range of 2950-3080, flexibly switching between long and short rhythms based on volume changes and event-driven strategies. If it breaks above 3100, one can increase positions; if it falls below 2930, the trend structure needs to be reassessed.
#CPI数据来袭 $ETH

Ethereum July 14 Trading Strategy and Analysis

I. Technical Positioning
The current price range is high at 3051 (July 14 Asian session high) and low at 2939 (July 13 US session pullback low), forming a short-term consolidation range. Considering recent market performance, Ethereum has maintained above 2900 USD for three consecutive days, and after breaking 3000 USD on July 13, there has been no significant selling pressure, indicating a short-term bullish market sentiment.

II. Long Strategies
1. Support Level Layout
- If the price retraces to the 2950-2930 range, watch for a 30-minute MACD divergence or bullish engulfing signal, and consider entering a long position with a small amount.
- The initial target is set at the 3000 USD round number; after breaking through, consider reducing positions in batches, with the ultimate target referring to the previous high of 3051.
- Monitor volume: the breakout at 3000 USD should be accompanied by trading volume increasing to 1.5 times the recent average.
2. Breakout Follow-up
- If the European session stabilizes above 3051, wait for a 15-minute volume contraction pullback to around 3035 to enter, targeting the new resistance zone of 3080-3100.

III. Short Strategies
1. Resistance Level Play
- Observe for a 4-hour KDJ overbought signal (J value > 90) near 3051, and consider attempting a short position with the formation of a long upper shadow.
- The target below is set at the 2980-2950 support zone, with a focus on the strength of the 2950 platform support.

2. False Breakout Pullback
- If the price briefly breaks above 3051 and then quickly falls below 3030, consider entering a short position based on a 1-hour MACD divergence signal, targeting a pullback to 2980.

IV. News Analysis
- Positive Factors:
1. The latest remarks from the Federal Reserve Chairman suggest a potential interest rate cut cycle starting in September (Beijing time July 13, 23:00), continuing to boost risk appetite.
2. The total locked value in Ethereum's L2 networks has surpassed 40 billion USD (data from July 12), supporting valuation recovery through ecosystem development.
- Potential Risks:
1. The final decision on the Ethereum ETF by the US SEC is approaching (July 15 deadline), and regulatory uncertainty may trigger profit-taking.
2. The inflow speed of Bitcoin ETF funds has slowed (net inflow dropped to 120 million USD on July 13), necessitating caution regarding potential ripple effects on Bitcoin.

V. Position Management Recommendations
Both long and short strategies recommend using a pyramid scaling method, starting with a 20% position. Pay close attention to the volatility expansion period from 15:00 to 22:00 European and US sessions; if the price fails to break 3051 for 6 consecutive hours, be cautious of a potential short-term top formation.

#ETH突破3000 $ETH

Bitcoin July 14 Market Analysis and Entry Strategy Reference

I. Core Logic of Technical Analysis
1. Support and Resistance Levels
- Support Level: $117,643 (lowest point of the rollercoaster market on June 30), if the price falls back and stabilizes in this range, it can be seen as a short-term bullish signal.
- Resistance Level: $121,600 (near historical high), if the price tests this level multiple times without a successful breakout, caution against profit-taking pressure is advised.
2. Momentum Indicators
- On July 11, the price broke through $117,000 and set a new historical high. The MACD and RSI indicators show that bullish momentum still prevails, but high-level fluctuations may increase volatility.

II. Factors Driven by News
1. Bullish Factors
- Institutional Funds Active: Data from June 30 shows that large transfers on the Bitcoin blockchain (over 100 BTC) accounted for 12%, indicating enhanced liquidity of institutional funds.
- Market Sentiment Heating Up: On July 11, the intraday increase exceeded 5%, and a wave of short covering triggered a chain reaction, further pushing up prices.
2. Risk Warnings
- Concerns of High-Level Selling Pressure: On June 24, the market plummeted due to rumors of “war and liquidation,” and with current prices approaching historical highs, caution against similar black swan events triggering a pullback is necessary.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Analysis on July 7 pointed out that Bitcoin might face a new round of reshuffling, and changes in policy direction could affect short-term trends.

III. Operation Strategies
1. Long Strategy
- Entry Point: Price falls back to the range of 116580-117500, build positions in batches.
- Logical Basis: Support level combined with institutional fund inflows and expectations of short covering, targeting 120000-122500.
2. Short Strategy
- Entry Point: Price reaches the range of 121000-121850, light short positions.
- Logical Basis: Signs of weakening momentum at high levels, combined with historical selling pressure zones, targeting a dip to 119,000-116580.

IV. Comprehensive Recommendations
- Position Management: Both long and short strategies suggest entering in batches to avoid the risk of holding positions during volatility pullbacks.
- News Monitoring: Focus on Federal Reserve policies, changes in institutional holdings, and dynamics of large on-chain transfers.
- Risk Warning: If the price unexpectedly falls below $117,000 or breaks above $122,000, pay attention to changes in market sentiment.
#迷因币情绪 $BTC

7.13 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Entry Strategy Reference

Long Strategy (Enter after breakout confirmation)

1. Entry Timing
- If the price stabilizes above $117,000 (previous high support level), you can gradually accumulate positions, targeting the previous high of $118,171 and above.

- Combine with hourly RSI rising above 50 and increased volume signals to enhance confirmation of bullish momentum.

2. News Support
- Recently, the scale of short covering has surged (reaching $318 million in 24 hours), indicating that a short squeeze may continue.

- If macro data such as the US CPI is favorable for risk assets, it may drive further inflows into cryptocurrencies.

Short Strategy (Positioning after pullback signals appear)

1. Entry Timing
- If the price breaks below the support of $116,865 (key intraday low), you can lightly short, targeting the range of $116,000-$115,500.

- Combined with a 4-hour chart showing a bearish divergence pattern (new price high but weakening RSI) or large on-chain transfers to exchanges, indicating selling pressure.

2. News Risks
- After reaching historical highs, profit-taking sentiment is rising, and the leverage of long positions is relatively high, making it prone to technical pullbacks.

- Regulatory dynamics (such as rumors about US SEC policies) may cause short-term volatility.

Key Operation Suggestions
- Bull-bear boundary reference at $116,800: If it stabilizes, lean towards bullish; if it breaks, shift to bearish trend trading.

- Position Management: Do not exceed 20% of total capital in a single trade to avoid excessive leverage.

- News Tracking: Pay close attention to the performance of US stock market openings and updates on CoinGlass short covering data.

Note: The above strategies should be adjusted based on real-time market conditions, and more on-chain data can be referenced. For detailed macro event impact analysis, see.
#交易策略误区 $BTC

Ethereum market analysis and entry strategy reference on July 13

1. Long Strategy

1. Entry Conditions

- Price stabilizes after retracing to the support zone of $2910-$2930, and three consecutive bullish candles with increased volume appear on the 1-hour chart (volume needs to exceed 120% of the previous day's average).

- Simultaneously observe whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate stops declining (currently about 0.0191). If the exchange rate rises above 0.0193, it can enhance the signal's validity.

2. Targets and Position Management

- First target: $2950 (central position intra-day), second target: $2975 (upper bound of the range).

- If it breaks above the previous high of $2978 and stabilizes on the 1-hour chart, additional targets can be set to $3020 (theoretical target based on channel theory).

- If the rebound volume continuously shrinks to below 65% of the previous day's volume, exit and observe.

2. Short Strategy

1. Entry Conditions

- Price rebounds to the $2965-$2978 area and shows stagnation, with a long upper shadow on the 4-hour chart or a MACD bearish divergence structure.

- Must be accompanied by Coinbase premium rate turning negative (current +0.35%), indicating increased selling pressure from institutions.

2. Targets and Exit Mechanism

- First look at $2930 (boundary line between long and short), if it breaks below, then look at the bottom of the $2902 range.

- In extreme market conditions, it may target $2880 (support from April trend line extension).

- If the price breaks above $2990 and holds for 15 minutes, then short positions should exit.

3. Key Drivers from News

1. Macroeconomic Risks

- If the U.S. debt maturity issue triggers risk aversion, it may suppress ETH and other risk assets, but Bitcoin's strength (dominance at 62.2%) may divert funds.

- If the U.S. PPI data released in the evening exceeds expectations, it may strengthen interest rate hike expectations, negatively impacting the crypto market.

2. On-Chain Signals

- Gas fees remaining below 20 Gwei reflect insufficient on-chain activity, and caution is warranted for a potential further decline in DeFi TVL (currently down 34% year-on-year).

- If a whale address transfers over 500,000 ETH to exchanges in a single day, it is considered a strong selling signal.

> Strategy execution requires close monitoring of the ETH/BTC exchange rate and the Bitcoin $84,000 defense line (potential correlation with BTC breaking down). Current market volatility has increased to 45%, it is recommended to limit single position size to ≤15%, and strictly adhere to the principle of building positions in batches.
#交易策略误区 #套利交易策略 $ETH