Ethereum July 14 Trading Strategy and Analysis
I. Technical Positioning
The current price range is high at 3051 (July 14 Asian session high) and low at 2939 (July 13 US session pullback low), forming a short-term consolidation range. Considering recent market performance, Ethereum has maintained above 2900 USD for three consecutive days, and after breaking 3000 USD on July 13, there has been no significant selling pressure, indicating a short-term bullish market sentiment.
II. Long Strategies
1. Support Level Layout
- If the price retraces to the 2950-2930 range, watch for a 30-minute MACD divergence or bullish engulfing signal, and consider entering a long position with a small amount.
- The initial target is set at the 3000 USD round number; after breaking through, consider reducing positions in batches, with the ultimate target referring to the previous high of 3051.
- Monitor volume: the breakout at 3000 USD should be accompanied by trading volume increasing to 1.5 times the recent average.
2. Breakout Follow-up
- If the European session stabilizes above 3051, wait for a 15-minute volume contraction pullback to around 3035 to enter, targeting the new resistance zone of 3080-3100.
III. Short Strategies
1. Resistance Level Play
- Observe for a 4-hour KDJ overbought signal (J value > 90) near 3051, and consider attempting a short position with the formation of a long upper shadow.
- The target below is set at the 2980-2950 support zone, with a focus on the strength of the 2950 platform support.
2. False Breakout Pullback
- If the price briefly breaks above 3051 and then quickly falls below 3030, consider entering a short position based on a 1-hour MACD divergence signal, targeting a pullback to 2980.
IV. News Analysis
- Positive Factors:
1. The latest remarks from the Federal Reserve Chairman suggest a potential interest rate cut cycle starting in September (Beijing time July 13, 23:00), continuing to boost risk appetite.
2. The total locked value in Ethereum's L2 networks has surpassed 40 billion USD (data from July 12), supporting valuation recovery through ecosystem development.
- Potential Risks:
1. The final decision on the Ethereum ETF by the US SEC is approaching (July 15 deadline), and regulatory uncertainty may trigger profit-taking.
2. The inflow speed of Bitcoin ETF funds has slowed (net inflow dropped to 120 million USD on July 13), necessitating caution regarding potential ripple effects on Bitcoin.
V. Position Management Recommendations
Both long and short strategies recommend using a pyramid scaling method, starting with a 20% position. Pay close attention to the volatility expansion period from 15:00 to 22:00 European and US sessions; if the price fails to break 3051 for 6 consecutive hours, be cautious of a potential short-term top formation.
