Bitcoin July 14 Market Analysis and Entry Strategy Reference
I. Core Logic of Technical Analysis
1. Support and Resistance Levels
- Support Level: $117,643 (lowest point of the rollercoaster market on June 30), if the price falls back and stabilizes in this range, it can be seen as a short-term bullish signal.
- Resistance Level: $121,600 (near historical high), if the price tests this level multiple times without a successful breakout, caution against profit-taking pressure is advised.
2. Momentum Indicators
- On July 11, the price broke through $117,000 and set a new historical high. The MACD and RSI indicators show that bullish momentum still prevails, but high-level fluctuations may increase volatility.
II. Factors Driven by News
1. Bullish Factors
- Institutional Funds Active: Data from June 30 shows that large transfers on the Bitcoin blockchain (over 100 BTC) accounted for 12%, indicating enhanced liquidity of institutional funds.
- Market Sentiment Heating Up: On July 11, the intraday increase exceeded 5%, and a wave of short covering triggered a chain reaction, further pushing up prices.
2. Risk Warnings
- Concerns of High-Level Selling Pressure: On June 24, the market plummeted due to rumors of “war and liquidation,” and with current prices approaching historical highs, caution against similar black swan events triggering a pullback is necessary.
- Regulatory Uncertainty: Analysis on July 7 pointed out that Bitcoin might face a new round of reshuffling, and changes in policy direction could affect short-term trends.
III. Operation Strategies
1. Long Strategy
- Entry Point: Price falls back to the range of 116580-117500, build positions in batches.
- Logical Basis: Support level combined with institutional fund inflows and expectations of short covering, targeting 120000-122500.
2. Short Strategy
- Entry Point: Price reaches the range of 121000-121850, light short positions.
- Logical Basis: Signs of weakening momentum at high levels, combined with historical selling pressure zones, targeting a dip to 119,000-116580.
IV. Comprehensive Recommendations
- Position Management: Both long and short strategies suggest entering in batches to avoid the risk of holding positions during volatility pullbacks.
- News Monitoring: Focus on Federal Reserve policies, changes in institutional holdings, and dynamics of large on-chain transfers.
- Risk Warning: If the price unexpectedly falls below $117,000 or breaks above $122,000, pay attention to changes in market sentiment.
