📊 1. Market trend comparison
- July 18 - Price range: highest 3675 USD (recent new high), lowest 3455 USD, daily increase narrowed to 4.86%, closing at 3584 USD. Technical pattern: six consecutive daily gains, EMA moving averages in bullish alignment, Bollinger band upper line points to 3745 USD; however, the four-hour chart shows a 'double top trap' signal, RSI-7 reaches 93.74 (extremely overbought).
- July 19 - Price range: high of 3673 USD (not breaking previous high), low of 3477 USD, volatility narrowing. Technical changes: EMA15 support moved down to 3450 USD, MACD top divergence continues, short-term pullback pressure increases, need to pay attention to 3525 USD neckline support.
💰 2. Capital dynamics and position volume
- ETF capital inflow: On July 18, a net inflow of 192 million USD in a single day (BlackRock accounted for 171 million), over 730 million USD accumulated in July, institutional lock-up leads to a contraction in circulation.
- Contract open interest: On July 17, total ETH contract open interest broke 50.2 billion USD (historical high), but on the 19th the growth rate of open contracts slowed, intensifying long-short divergence.
- Liquidation data: On the 18th, total liquidations reached 587 million USD (61% short positions), and after the volatility decreased on the 19th, the scale of liquidations reduced.
🏛️ 3. Policy and news comparison
- July 18 good news: The U.S. House of Representatives passed the (GENIUS Act) (stablecoin regulatory framework) and the (CLARITY Act) (digital asset positioning), eliminating regulatory uncertainty. Nasdaq's proposal allows ETH ETF staking, increasing long-term holding attractiveness.
- July 19 focus: Market digests policy benefits, attention on the progress of Trump's signed legislation, Bitcoin impacts the 120,000 USD mark diverting funds, ETH/BTC dominance slightly drops to 0.028.
🔮 4. Key points of future trends
- Upside opportunity: If the support at 3525 USD holds, still likely to test the 3740–4000 USD range (Fibonacci target).
- Downside risk: The demand for RSI overbought correction increases. If the support at the 3450 USD EMA is lost, a pullback to 3360 USD (Bollinger band midline) may occur.
- Capital rotation: ETH's rise drives altcoins to explode (e.g., ETC rose 21% in one day). The L2 sector (OP/ARB) and staking tokens (LDO) receive capital overflow.
🎉💰💰💰 Entry strategy reference
1. Long strategy: Entry timing - If the price pulls back to the 3480-3500 range (approaching the intraday low of 3477), positions can be built in batches.
2. Targets and catalysts - Short-term target 3620-3650 (approaching yearly high), breaking through could look at 3673+.
1. Long strategy: Entry timing - If the price reaches the 3660-3673 range (previous high resistance level), a small short position can be tested.
2. Targets and risk control - Target lower at 3550-3520 (daily support zone). Key trigger point: If the details of the new U.S. 401(k) policy are delayed, it may trigger speculation funds to exit; liquidation data shows intense long-short battles (24-hour total liquidations of 927 million USD), and technical pullbacks are likely at high levels.
Market volatility sentiment area risk control, investment needs to be cautious!
