Ethereum July 16th Trading Strategy Analysis Reference
1. Technical Key Levels
- High Resistance: 3150-3160 area (Yesterday's high of 3153.84 USD).
- Low Support: 3080-3100 range (Ideal entry point for long positions).
- Oscillation Center: Recently frequently spiking in the 3000-3150 range, lacking directional continuity.
2. Long Strategy
1. Entry Timing:
- If it retraces to the 3080-3100 area, can gradually build long positions, targeting 3180-3200.
- If it stabilizes above 3120, can lightly follow up with short-term longs, betting on a second surge.
2. Logical Basis:
- Independent Market Drivers: Ethereum broke through 3100 USD against the trend yesterday, capital rotation may kickstart altcoin markets.
- Technical Repair Demand: After multiple spikes, there is rebound momentum, with effective support from hourly moving averages.
3. Short Strategy
1. Entry Timing:
- If it rebounds to the 3150-3160 area, can short with a target down to 3080-3100.
- If it continues to struggle to break 3150 resistance, can preemptively build light positions.
2. Logical Basis:
- Top Pressure Confirmation: Multiple spikes above 3150 followed by pullbacks form short-term strong resistance.
- Market Sentiment Divergence: Bitcoin, affected by CPI data, pulled back to 115,700 USD, potentially pressuring ETH.
4. Key Influences from News
1. Aftermath of CPI Data:
- The U.S. June CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with the dollar index soaring to 98.5, suppressing risk assets.
- However, Ethereum has shown resilience; if the subsequent PPI data eases (to be released on the evening of July 16), it may boost the crypto market.
2. Capital Rotation Opportunities:
- During Bitcoin's oscillation, funds may shift towards ETH and altcoins, with short-term volatility enhancing swing trading.
Strategy Explanation: Ethereum is showing a short-term oscillation leaning towards bullishness, but caution is needed for Bitcoin's correlation risks. Operationally, it's recommended to trade in and out quickly to avoid overnight volatility.
