Ethereum (ETH) July 17 Night Operation Strategy:
1. Long Strategy: Seize rebound opportunities on dips
1. Entry Zones:
- Core Support Zone (3190-3220): If the price pulls back and stabilizes in this range, gradual long positions can be established. This area is close to the buffer zone above the July 17 low (3146), where technical support from bulls exists.
- Aggressive Zone (near 3250): If a quick drop occurs followed by a 15-minute level bottom divergence signal, consider a light long position.
2. News Coordination:
- US Initial Jobless Claims Data (released at 20:30): If the data worsens beyond expectations (indicating a weak job market), it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, driving risk assets to rebound.
- Liquidity impact during flood prevention critical period: The domestic market enters the "July down, August up" flood prevention period, and if extreme weather triggers market risk-averse sentiment, it may indirectly boost the demand for crypto assets as a hedge.
2. Short Strategy: Intervene at high resistance zones
1. Entry Zones:
- Strong Resistance Zone (3420-3450): Close to the previous high of 3482; if the price stagnates and a 1-hour level top formation appears, short positions can be gradually established.
- Secondary Resistance Zone (3380-3400): If the rebound strength weakens and trading volume declines, consider a light counter position.
2. News Coordination:
- Inflation expectations fluctuate: If initial jobless claims data is better than expected (indicating a strong job market), it may weaken interest rate cut expectations, support the dollar, and suppress the crypto market.
- Policy and Regulatory Dynamics: Pay attention to interpretations of new regulations for technology enterprise incubators in the domestic market (e.g., "Management Measures for Technology-based Enterprise Incubators"); if it involves regulatory trends for digital currencies, it may trigger selling pressure.
3. Comprehensive Operational Points
1. Long-Short Boundary Reference:
- Breaking above 3380: Short-term bulls strengthen, shorts need to be cautious;
- Breaking below 3220: Support weakens, longs need to exit protectively.
2. Position Management:
- Do not exceed 5% position for a single trade to avoid risks from sudden news fluctuations.
3. Data-Driven Priority:
- Before 20:30: Mainly wait and observe for guidance from initial jobless claims data;
- After data release: Follow the market trend based on price reactions (e.g., buying on rebounds once bearish news is fully priced in, selling on bullish news that leads to stagnation).
