Ethereum 7.20 Daily Market Analysis and Entry Strategy Reference
I. Long Strategy (Support Level Play)
1. Entry Conditions
- When the price retraces to the 3550-3525 range, observe if there are more than 3 consecutive bullish candles on the 15-minute level
- With trading volume moderately increasing (15%+ growth compared to the average of the previous hour)
2. News Catalysts
- The U.S. 'Genius Act' has been officially signed, and the establishment of a stablecoin regulatory framework may boost liquidity in the crypto market
- The rise in rubber raw materials in Thailand suggests a potential spillover effect from commodities to the digital asset space
3. Target Setting
- First target at 3620 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)
- If it breaks through 3647 (high point on July 19), look for the pressure zone at 3694
II. Short Strategy (Resistance Level Pullback)
1. Entry Conditions
- When the price reaches the 3680-3694 range and the 1-hour RSI > 70
- The MACD histogram shows a top divergence for 2 consecutive hours
2. News Coordination
- Explosion incident at U.S. diplomatic facilities in Baghdad, geopolitical risks may trigger short-term risk aversion
- Iran's declaration on nuclear facility reconstruction, if it escalates tensions in the Middle East, may suppress risk assets
3. Target Setting
- First look at the 3620 neckline (the oscillation center on July 18)
- If it falls below 3580 (Bollinger Band middle track), look for 3545 as golden ratio support
III. Long and Short Critical Monitoring
- Key Indicator: U.S. July Manufacturing PMI (to be released at 22:00 Beijing time) if below 50, strengthens easing expectations which is bullish for the crypto market
- On-chain Data: Monitor the change in the staking volume of Ethereum 2.0 contract addresses; a daily increase of over 50,000 ETH would be bullish
(Strategies need to adjust based on real-time volatility, with a focus on the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and U.S. unemployment claims data's impact on the dollar index)
