Ethereum market analysis and entry strategy reference on July 13
1. Long Strategy
1. Entry Conditions
- Price stabilizes after retracing to the support zone of $2910-$2930, and three consecutive bullish candles with increased volume appear on the 1-hour chart (volume needs to exceed 120% of the previous day's average).
- Simultaneously observe whether the ETH/BTC exchange rate stops declining (currently about 0.0191). If the exchange rate rises above 0.0193, it can enhance the signal's validity.
2. Targets and Position Management
- First target: $2950 (central position intra-day), second target: $2975 (upper bound of the range).
- If it breaks above the previous high of $2978 and stabilizes on the 1-hour chart, additional targets can be set to $3020 (theoretical target based on channel theory).
- If the rebound volume continuously shrinks to below 65% of the previous day's volume, exit and observe.
2. Short Strategy
1. Entry Conditions
- Price rebounds to the $2965-$2978 area and shows stagnation, with a long upper shadow on the 4-hour chart or a MACD bearish divergence structure.
- Must be accompanied by Coinbase premium rate turning negative (current +0.35%), indicating increased selling pressure from institutions.
2. Targets and Exit Mechanism
- First look at $2930 (boundary line between long and short), if it breaks below, then look at the bottom of the $2902 range.
- In extreme market conditions, it may target $2880 (support from April trend line extension).
- If the price breaks above $2990 and holds for 15 minutes, then short positions should exit.
3. Key Drivers from News
1. Macroeconomic Risks
- If the U.S. debt maturity issue triggers risk aversion, it may suppress ETH and other risk assets, but Bitcoin's strength (dominance at 62.2%) may divert funds.
- If the U.S. PPI data released in the evening exceeds expectations, it may strengthen interest rate hike expectations, negatively impacting the crypto market.
2. On-Chain Signals
- Gas fees remaining below 20 Gwei reflect insufficient on-chain activity, and caution is warranted for a potential further decline in DeFi TVL (currently down 34% year-on-year).
- If a whale address transfers over 500,000 ETH to exchanges in a single day, it is considered a strong selling signal.
> Strategy execution requires close monitoring of the ETH/BTC exchange rate and the Bitcoin $84,000 defense line (potential correlation with BTC breaking down). Current market volatility has increased to 45%, it is recommended to limit single position size to ≤15%, and strictly adhere to the principle of building positions in batches.
