I believe many people are predicting whether Ethereum will break its historical high again. Today, let's briefly review #美国加密周
1. Core driving factors for breaking $3,100 after 22:00 on July 15
1. Expectations for regulatory policies are heating up
The U.S. Congress's 'Cryptocurrency Week' is approaching, with key legislation such as the stablecoin bill entering the review phase. Market expectations are that a clearer regulatory framework will accelerate institutional funding entry, and Ethereum, as the leading smart contract platform, will directly benefit. #CPI数据来袭
2. Funds rotating to altcoin tracks
After Bitcoin set a new historical high on the day, it entered a consolidation phase, with some profit capital shifting to Ethereum and other mainstream altcoins. On-chain data shows that the inventory of Ethereum on exchanges has dropped to a yearly low, with obvious signs of large addresses increasing their holdings, pushing the price to break through key resistance levels. #山寨季何时到来？
3. Technical breakthroughs trigger programmatic buy orders
$3,100 is the upper edge of the previous concentrated trading area. After breaking through, it triggers the buy signal of the quantitative trading model, with a 200% surge in trading volume compared to the previous period on the 4-hour chart, forming a technical acceleration in the rise. #美国加密周
2. Key variables for breaking new highs on July 16
Real-time data and long-short game #比特币巨鲸动向
Bitcoin Anchor Effect | Reported at $118,000 (Data at 13:15) | If it holds at the support level of $114,000, ETH may rebound in tandem |
| Contract Leverage Ratio | Overall Unsettled Leverage Ratio 0.28 | > 5x Leverage Account Proportion 80%, Low Volatility Tolerance |
| Long-Short Position Ratio | 1:2.3 (Shorts dominate) | Breakthrough requires continuous inflow of spot funds for hedging |
Factors constraining the news
- Inflation data exceeds expectations: U.S. June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year (expected 2.6%), the probability of a Fed rate cut in September drops to 54.3%, risk assets under pressure.
- Profit-taking pressure has not been digested: Ethereum's increase exceeds 15% in three days, and the short-term overbought indicator (RSI=68) still needs time to repair.
3. News-based trading strategies
1. Necessary conditions for breaking new highs $BTC
- ✅ Bitcoin stabilizes at $120,000: Need to observe if BTC can recover the losses from the early session (Key Resistance $119,250).
- ✅ PPI data lower than expected: If the PPI month-on-month increase on the evening of the 16th is ≤0.2%, it may alleviate inflation concerns.
2. Day trade recommendations
| Bitcoin breaks $119,250 | Go long on ETH (Target $3,250) | Stop loss set below the support of $3,050 |
| PPI data above 0.3% | Go short (Target $2,950) | Leverage controlled within 3x |
Conclusion (as of 2025-07-16 13:30)
The probability of breaking new highs in the short term is less than 40%. The need for technical recovery combined with macro pressure requires waiting for the PPI data to land and for Bitcoin to stabilize. Aggressive investors can participate in the swing with light positions, while conservatives are advised to wait until the Fed's policy expectations clarify.
