Ethereum Trading Strategy for July 21 (High at 3824/Low at 3632)
Long Strategy
1. Support Level Layout: If the price stabilizes near 3632 after a pullback (for example, if the hourly chart continuously closes bullish or breaks the 5/10 moving average crossover), a small position can be entered for a long trade, targeting the 3720-3750 range. This is similar to the strategy in gold trading, relying on the support at 3330-3340 for low-risk longs, combined with technical confirmation of support validity.
2. Breakout Follow-up: If the price stabilizes above 3750 (a daily level breakout above the upper Bollinger Band), it can be seen as a signal of increased bullish momentum. Additional positions can be added on a pullback near 3720, targeting the previous high at 3824. This is analogous to gold's strategy of looking for 3400 after breaking 3375.
Short Strategy
1. Resistance Level Game: If the price first touches near 3824 (the previous daily high or a top divergence pattern on the 4-hour chart), a small position can be attempted for a short trade, targeting 3720-3680. This is similar to the logic of gold being pressured in the 3370-3375 resistance range.
2. False Breakout Pullback: If the price quickly spikes above 3850 and then falls below 3820 (forming a long upper shadow on the hourly chart), it can be seen as a false breakout signal. A short position can be entered on a pullback near 3800, targeting a return to 3700.
News Analysis
- Positive Factors: Pay attention to U.S. inflation data if it comes in lower than expected (similar to the logic of a weakening dollar in gold analysis), which may drive a recovery in risk appetite in the crypto market. Increases in Ethereum ETF inflows or heightened Layer 2 ecosystem activity will strengthen bullish expectations.
- Negative Factors: If regulatory agencies signal restrictions on cryptocurrency trading (such as SEC investigations into exchanges), or if U.S. stocks experience significant corrections leading to liquidity contraction, it may suppress Ethereum's rebound potential. This is similar to the gold market's sensitivity to central bank policies and geopolitical events.
Core Strategy: Focus on high selling and low buying within the 3632-3824 range during the day, and follow the trend after breakouts. Prioritize observing the price's momentum performance at key levels (such as volume changes, candlestick patterns), and adjust positions based on real-time news.
