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Affected by tariff policies, global stock markets have experienced the most severe decline since 2020, with the 'domino effect' in global financial markets visibly erupting. The cryptocurrency market has also not been spared; last night a 'yep' triggered a huge shock in global stock markets and a rapid rise in BTC, it was truly ridiculous and thrilling! The US stock market closed on Monday, with the stock indices experiencing significant fluctuations under the trade storm. The Dow initially closed down 0.9%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. The daily volatility of the three major indices was 6.77%, 8.11%, and 9.68% respectively. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 3.5%, Apple (AAPL.O) fell 3.6%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) dropped 2%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 5.1%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) dropped 9%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 43%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 57%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until June is 20.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 49.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 29.9%.

The 'US Treasury Market Basis Trading' faces risks due to increased volatility in bond prices. The potential explosion of $1 trillion in basis trading of US Treasury bonds could trigger a global cash rush, leading to the sell-off of all assets, including Bitcoin. A similar situation occurred in mid-March 2020 when basis trading reached $500 billion. Currently, in this context, we should focus on the correction of US stocks on Monday. If US stocks and other risk assets continue to decline, it may trigger further downtrends in the crypto market. Given the aggressive policies of Trump, we must be fully prepared for a long-term battle. Only in this way can we hold on until the moment Powell (the market's nickname for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell) intervenes to save the market. Looking back at the pandemic period in 2020, US stocks experienced four circuit breakers, and the Federal Reserve successfully saved the market through massive money printing and other means. As long as there is this 'big move' of money printing, many seemingly tricky market problems seem to be easily solvable.

【Bitcoin Market: Fluctuating Upward, Challenging Key Levels】

The curtain on the new week has already risen. After a weekend of fluctuations and consolidation, the Bitcoin market has now steadily risen, showing strong performance, with the overall trend exhibiting a fluctuating upward pattern. In the morning, Bitcoin began its journey from a low of 84719, and then steadily rose, with bullish forces still firmly in control. As of now, the price is testing the resistance level around 86500. From the morning's pattern analysis, the price still has space to continue to rise and test the previous high at around 87500. This key level not only served as a support level during the previous breakout but is also a critical defensive area for the bulls. If it can successfully stabilize above this support level during the pullback, the market is likely to maintain an upward trend.

【Ethereum Market: Fluctuating After a Rebound, Focus on Resistance Break】

The trend in the Ethereum market is quite similar. Ethereum rebounded strongly from the support level of 1979, reaching a high of around 2020. However, due to a weakening buying momentum in the market, Ethereum has not been able to achieve further breakthroughs and instead entered a relatively stable range of fluctuations. Although the bulls are striving to push the price upward, the price has remained hovering around the middle band and has not released strong signals for a rise. Looking ahead, if it cannot firmly stand above the middle band, the market is likely to operate in a wide fluctuation pattern in the short term. In the 4-hour chart, the short cycle shows a strong bullish trend, with consecutive bullish candlesticks pushing the price to break through the upper band again. In the future, pay close attention to the resistance situation around the previous area of 2065. If it cannot effectively break through upward, consider adopting a short strategy; if it can successfully break upward, then it would be advisable to go long.

Trading Insights

1. If the market crashes and the coins in your hand don't drop much, it indicates that there are market makers supporting the price. Hold onto such coins, there will definitely be profits later! 2. New traders, please remember to understand macro information. For short-term trading, look at the 5-day moving average; if the price is above it, hold on, and if it breaks below, run quickly. For medium-term, watch the 20-day moving average, the same principle applies. Don't get caught up in fancy strategies; once you've identified a target, act decisively! 3. If you've bought a coin that hasn't moved for three days, quickly switch to the next one. If you buy and it drops, and you lose 5%, don't hesitate; cut your losses immediately! 4. If a coin has plummeted from its peak and has been down for nine days, it's been oversold; a rebound is imminent, so get in decisively! 5. When trading, you need to chase the leaders. The one that rises the most is the leader, and it's also the one that resists declines best. Don't be afraid to buy just because the price is high, and don't catch falling knives just because the price has dropped; chase the leaders regardless of price fluctuations! 6. Stop thinking about bottom fishing. Falling coins are like jumping off a building; they have no bottom. If it’s time to cut losses, then cut them. Following the trend is key. Buying isn't about getting the lowest price, but about timing! 7. Don’t get cocky just because you’ve made some money; it's easy to make a profit once, but the hard part is making money every day. After each profit, reflect on whether it was your skill or just luck. Developing your own trading strategy is the real key! 8. When you’re unsure, stay in cash; it’s not shameful to be in cash, but losing money is. Remember, you’re here to preserve your capital, not to be a gambling god! Trading is not about speed; it’s about success rate and risk-to-reward ratio!

From the daily chart, Bitcoin's market surged and washed yesterday and collected a green K-line. The price pierced the daily MA30/60-day moving average and then fell back and fell below the daily MA5/10-day moving average again. The daily support focuses on the MA120-day moving average, which is 9.4. From the 4-hour chart, the price yesterday tested the MA256-day moving average, which is 9.95, and then quickly fell back. The current price fell and rebounded to the MA30-day moving average and fluctuated. Pay attention to whether the price can break through and stabilize above 9.66. If it stabilizes, the unilateral decline will end. Otherwise, it will continue to test the 9.4 low point downward.

From the daily chart, Ethereum also collected a green K-line yesterday, and the price came to the previous high of 2850 pressure again. This line is the daily MA30-day moving average pressure level; from the 4-hour chart, it tested the MA120-day moving average upward and failed. The current key pressure level is 2700. Pay attention to whether it can break through and stabilize within the day.

Lunchtime operation ideas (writing time: 14:30):

BTC: short light position at 9.7, short position at 9.75, target at 9.6/9.55; long position at 9.45/9.5 below, target at 9.6/9.7

ETH: short light position at 2710, short position at 2740, target at 2660/2630; long position at 2600/2550 below, target at 2660/2700

2025.2.19 Market Analysis
BTC:

From the daily chart, the big coin's downward fluctuation range has not been broken. The support level after the previous rise from 88909 to 110000 is around 93500. After the first wave of decline, it continued to fluctuate without a rebound. It is now testing the support again, and the support below is still valid. In trading, one can consider short-term rebounds, observing the defense of the support. If there is a rebound, pay attention to the situation of breaking the high point of 99500 effectively. As a reference point, buy around 95000, set a stop loss at the recent low of 93300, and target 98500-99000. Seize the opportunity to enter.

ETH:

From the daily chart, Ethereum has fared well this time, without a deep decline. The decline hasn't even reached the support level of 2560. Overall, Ethereum is still in a state of fluctuation; as long as the range is not broken, there won't be significant ups and downs in the market. In trading, one should also prepare for low buys and high shorts. Pay attention to the bottom support around 2560. If Bitcoin rebounds, Ethereum will follow. Trading strategy: go long around 2600, stop loss at 2520, and target around 2850. Further decisions should be made based on the situation after breaking through above.

The daily chart of Bitcoin fell from a high of around 97700 to a low of around 96000 yesterday, closing around 96100. Support is located around 94000; if broken, it can drop to around MA120. A pullback can be considered for buying in the vicinity. Resistance is located around MA14; if broken, it can rise to around MA90. A rebound to the vicinity can be considered for selling. The MACD shows a decrease in bearish momentum, with signs of a golden cross forming. On the four-hour chart, resistance is located around MA60; if broken, it can rise to around MA90. The MACD shows an increase in bearish momentum, forming a death cross. In the short term, buying can be considered in the range of 94100-93000, with a rebound target of around 95400-97500. A rebound to around 97000-98200 can be considered for selling, with a target of around 95350-94000.

The daily chart of Ethereum fell from a high of around 2730 to a low of around 2650 yesterday, closing around 2660. Support is located around 2625; if broken, it can drop to around 2575. A pullback can be considered for buying in the vicinity. Resistance is located around 2750. The MACD shows an increase in bullish momentum, forming a golden cross. On the four-hour chart, the market is oscillating and leveling off, with resistance located around MA90; if broken, it can rise to around MA120. The MACD shows an increase in bearish momentum. In the short term, buying can be considered in the range of 2625-2575, with a rebound target of around 2740. A rebound to around 2697 can be considered for selling, with a target of around 2630-2575.