A7
Open Trade
Occasional Trader
4.3 Years
【数字资产交易专家 | 5年区块链市场实战经验】精通跨周期加密资产配置，擅长结合技术分析与链上数据构建交易系统（fs 8 82 48）
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As the price of Bitcoin surges towards historical highs, market enthusiasm and risk indices soar in tandem. The latest sentiment monitoring data shows that the market sentiment indicator has reached a historical high of 78%, a signal akin to the sword of Damocles hanging overhead, suggesting that the market may face a critical turning point of a 'double top'. In the context of global financial competition, Sino-US negotiations have become the core variable influencing market direction. In the face of unpredictable external commentary, investors must maintain a clear awareness— as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, the current risk-reward ratio of investments has significantly decreased, making the investment maxim 'greed in fear, caution in greed' increasingly important.
From a comprehensive analysis of technical and news aspects, although Bitcoin maintains an upward trend due to strong momentum, potential risks cannot be ignored. Technically, the continuous price increase has caused a significant deviation from the moving average system, with strong demand for a pullback correction in the short term; from a news perspective, policy changes, geopolitical events, and other factors could trigger market volatility. Therefore, scientific position management and strict risk control are effective means for investors to fend off risks. It is advisable to closely monitor price pullback signals and set reasonable stop-loss points to safeguard capital while seizing market opportunities.
After a day of turbulent adjustments, Bitcoin welcomed a new round of fluctuations in the early hours. The price attempted to break through the $105,000 mark but was unsuccessful due to overhead selling pressure, followed by a period of oscillation and retracement, dipping to a low of $103,500 in the morning, currently oscillating around that price level.
From an overall structural perspective, the Bitcoin market is in a critical phase of range compression. Affected by further reduced expectations of interest rate cuts, a pullback was observed in the morning session. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows a clear downward movement of the upper Bollinger Band, with strong resistance above; the middle and lower bands are gradually rising, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting around the price center. The price has been operating long-term between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, with bulls having a slight advantage in the short term, but the overall market remains in a state of stalemate. In the 1-hour candlestick chart, the oscillating market is more pronounced, with strong resilience shown in both support and resistance levels, with bulls and bears alternating in market dominance. Before the range converges, Bitcoin's price is expected to continue oscillating within the existing channel until a balance is broken.
From a comprehensive analysis of technical and news aspects, although Bitcoin maintains an upward trend due to strong momentum, potential risks cannot be ignored. Technically, the continuous price increase has caused a significant deviation from the moving average system, with strong demand for a pullback correction in the short term; from a news perspective, policy changes, geopolitical events, and other factors could trigger market volatility. Therefore, scientific position management and strict risk control are effective means for investors to fend off risks. It is advisable to closely monitor price pullback signals and set reasonable stop-loss points to safeguard capital while seizing market opportunities.
After a day of turbulent adjustments, Bitcoin welcomed a new round of fluctuations in the early hours. The price attempted to break through the $105,000 mark but was unsuccessful due to overhead selling pressure, followed by a period of oscillation and retracement, dipping to a low of $103,500 in the morning, currently oscillating around that price level.
From an overall structural perspective, the Bitcoin market is in a critical phase of range compression. Affected by further reduced expectations of interest rate cuts, a pullback was observed in the morning session. The 4-hour candlestick chart shows a clear downward movement of the upper Bollinger Band, with strong resistance above; the middle and lower bands are gradually rising, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting around the price center. The price has been operating long-term between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands, with bulls having a slight advantage in the short term, but the overall market remains in a state of stalemate. In the 1-hour candlestick chart, the oscillating market is more pronounced, with strong resilience shown in both support and resistance levels, with bulls and bears alternating in market dominance. Before the range converges, Bitcoin's price is expected to continue oscillating within the existing channel until a balance is broken.
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May 6, 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis and Operational Strategies
1. Key Points and Technical Signals for Bitcoin (BTC)
1. Daily Level Analysis
◦ Support Verification: The current price has fallen below the daily EMA5 moving average of $94,500, but there is a double bottom support structure around $93,500; if stabilized, it may trigger a rebound.
◦ Resistance Pressure: Short-term resistance is around $95,500; a breakthrough needs to be accompanied by an increase in trading volume (hourly buying ≥ 5,000 BTC), otherwise, it may form a false breakout.
◦ Potential Risk: If $93,500 is lost, it may accelerate the pullback to $92,000 (daily MA20 support) or even $88,000 (weekly support).
1. Daily Level Analysis
◦ Support Verification: The current price has fallen below the daily EMA5 moving average of $94,500, but there is a double bottom support structure around $93,500; if stabilized, it may trigger a rebound.
◦ Resistance Pressure: Short-term resistance is around $95,500; a breakthrough needs to be accompanied by an increase in trading volume (hourly buying ≥ 5,000 BTC), otherwise, it may form a false breakout.
◦ Potential Risk: If $93,500 is lost, it may accelerate the pullback to $92,000 (daily MA20 support) or even $88,000 (weekly support).
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Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy on April 14, 2025
Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy on April 14, 2025
One, Weekly Level Key Pattern Verification
Currently, Bitcoin has formed a 'pin bar new low followed by a rebound' doji pattern for 5 consecutive weeks on the weekly chart, similar to the bottom oscillation after the '519 crash' in 2021 (which opened a bull market after 2 months). From on-chain data, the $78,000-$80,000 range is a concentrated accumulation area for institutions; if the price can hold this support, it may replicate historical trends in the mid-term and form a reversal structure.
Two, Daily Level Bull-Bear Game Focus
1. Technical Pattern Analysis
• Trendline Breakout Confirmation: The daily line has broken the descending trendline near $86,100, and the MACD double lines are close to the zero line; if a golden cross forms and the histogram turns red, it will confirm the return of bulls.
One, Weekly Level Key Pattern Verification
Currently, Bitcoin has formed a 'pin bar new low followed by a rebound' doji pattern for 5 consecutive weeks on the weekly chart, similar to the bottom oscillation after the '519 crash' in 2021 (which opened a bull market after 2 months). From on-chain data, the $78,000-$80,000 range is a concentrated accumulation area for institutions; if the price can hold this support, it may replicate historical trends in the mid-term and form a reversal structure.
Two, Daily Level Bull-Bear Game Focus
1. Technical Pattern Analysis
• Trendline Breakout Confirmation: The daily line has broken the descending trendline near $86,100, and the MACD double lines are close to the zero line; if a golden cross forms and the histogram turns red, it will confirm the return of bulls.
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April 10, 2025 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
April 10, 2025 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
I. Key Signal Analysis at Daily Level
1. Long and Short Game and Support Resistance Verification
Yesterday, Bitcoin on the daily chart strongly rebounded from a low of $74,600 to $83,600, closing at $82,650, showing short-term rebound momentum. The current price is contesting around MA7 ($82,000-$79,250). If it effectively breaks this support, it may pull back to $79,250 (weekly chip center + previous low conversion point); if it holds, it is expected to test MA30 ($84,500-$85,000), and breaking through may open up space above $85,000.
I. Key Signal Analysis at Daily Level
1. Long and Short Game and Support Resistance Verification
Yesterday, Bitcoin on the daily chart strongly rebounded from a low of $74,600 to $83,600, closing at $82,650, showing short-term rebound momentum. The current price is contesting around MA7 ($82,000-$79,250). If it effectively breaks this support, it may pull back to $79,250 (weekly chip center + previous low conversion point); if it holds, it is expected to test MA30 ($84,500-$85,000), and breaking through may open up space above $85,000.
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April 8, 2025 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Operational Strategies
One, market structure and technical signals.
1. Short-term price pattern verification of weak patterns.
Bitcoin briefly surged to $81,172 on the evening of April 7 before quickly falling back, dropping to a low of $77,300 in the early morning, and then rebounding to around $81,200, but failing to effectively break through resistance, forming a 'false breakout' trap. Although there was a three-consecutive-hour candle rebound, the rebound range was only $3,000-4,000, and the trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating that bullish momentum remains weak.
• Key indicator verification: The 4-hour MACD fast and slow lines continue to be below the zero axis, with a shrinking rebound in the histogram, and the RSI briefly rebounding to 50 before turning down again, all indicating that the rebound is merely a technical correction and the trend has not reversed.
1. Short-term price pattern verification of weak patterns.
Bitcoin briefly surged to $81,172 on the evening of April 7 before quickly falling back, dropping to a low of $77,300 in the early morning, and then rebounding to around $81,200, but failing to effectively break through resistance, forming a 'false breakout' trap. Although there was a three-consecutive-hour candle rebound, the rebound range was only $3,000-4,000, and the trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating that bullish momentum remains weak.
• Key indicator verification: The 4-hour MACD fast and slow lines continue to be below the zero axis, with a shrinking rebound in the histogram, and the RSI briefly rebounding to 50 before turning down again, all indicating that the rebound is merely a technical correction and the trend has not reversed.
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Affected by tariff policies, global stock markets have experienced the most severe decline since 2020, with the 'domino effect' in global financial markets visibly erupting. The cryptocurrency market has also not been spared; last night a 'yep' triggered a huge shock in global stock markets and a rapid rise in BTC, it was truly ridiculous and thrilling! The US stock market closed on Monday, with the stock indices experiencing significant fluctuations under the trade storm. The Dow initially closed down 0.9%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. The daily volatility of the three major indices was 6.77%, 8.11%, and 9.68% respectively. Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 3.5%, Apple (AAPL.O) fell 3.6%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) dropped 2%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 5.1%, and Alibaba (BABA.N) dropped 9%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 43%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 57%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until June is 20.4%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 49.7%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 29.9%.
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The 'US Treasury Market Basis Trading' faces risks due to increased volatility in bond prices. The potential explosion of $1 trillion in basis trading of US Treasury bonds could trigger a global cash rush, leading to the sell-off of all assets, including Bitcoin. A similar situation occurred in mid-March 2020 when basis trading reached $500 billion. Currently, in this context, we should focus on the correction of US stocks on Monday. If US stocks and other risk assets continue to decline, it may trigger further downtrends in the crypto market. Given the aggressive policies of Trump, we must be fully prepared for a long-term battle. Only in this way can we hold on until the moment Powell (the market's nickname for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell) intervenes to save the market. Looking back at the pandemic period in 2020, US stocks experienced four circuit breakers, and the Federal Reserve successfully saved the market through massive money printing and other means. As long as there is this 'big move' of money printing, many seemingly tricky market problems seem to be easily solvable.
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April 6, 2025 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
One, market structure and technical signals
1. Volatility range and bull-bear game
• Core volatility range: Bitcoin is currently oscillating around $81,500-$84,500, with the 4-hour level testing the upper resistance zone of $84,300-$84,500 multiple times without success, while the lower support zone of $81,200-$81,500 has not been effectively broken, forming a balanced pattern of 'pressure above, support below'.
• K-line pattern: The 4-hour chart continuously shows long shadows, indicating fierce bull-bear competition; the 1-hour level has formed a short-term consolidation platform around $83,300, but the rebound highs are gradually decreasing ($84,422→$83,800→$83,500), indicating continued weakening of bullish momentum.
1. Volatility range and bull-bear game
• Core volatility range: Bitcoin is currently oscillating around $81,500-$84,500, with the 4-hour level testing the upper resistance zone of $84,300-$84,500 multiple times without success, while the lower support zone of $81,200-$81,500 has not been effectively broken, forming a balanced pattern of 'pressure above, support below'.
• K-line pattern: The 4-hour chart continuously shows long shadows, indicating fierce bull-bear competition; the 1-hour level has formed a short-term consolidation platform around $83,300, but the rebound highs are gradually decreasing ($84,422→$83,800→$83,500), indicating continued weakening of bullish momentum.
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April 5, 2025 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Dynamics and Future Outlook
I. Market Status After the Policy Shock
1. Price Recovery and Liquidity Restoration
Since the Trump administration announced the "34% tariff policy on China" on April 2, which caused Bitcoin to plummet to $76,000-$77,000, the market has gradually digested the policy risk. As of April 5, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to a range of $81,000-$83,500, while Ethereum has stabilized near $1,750-$1,850, indicating that short-term panic selling has temporarily eased.
• On-chain Data: Bitcoin short-term holder cost support is concentrated at $80,000-$82,000. On-chain transaction volume in this area increased by 40% compared to the previous day, indicating that some bottom-fishing funds have entered the market.
1. Price Recovery and Liquidity Restoration
Since the Trump administration announced the "34% tariff policy on China" on April 2, which caused Bitcoin to plummet to $76,000-$77,000, the market has gradually digested the policy risk. As of April 5, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to a range of $81,000-$83,500, while Ethereum has stabilized near $1,750-$1,850, indicating that short-term panic selling has temporarily eased.
• On-chain Data: Bitcoin short-term holder cost support is concentrated at $80,000-$82,000. On-chain transaction volume in this area increased by 40% compared to the previous day, indicating that some bottom-fishing funds have entered the market.
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April 4, 2025 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Operational Strategy
I. Overall Trend Judgment
I. Market Structure and Technical Signals
• Bitcoin: The current price is fluctuating around $81,000-$83,500. The MACD's DIF and DEA lines on the daily chart have formed a golden cross at a low level, and the RSI has rebounded to the neutral area of 50, indicating increased short-term rebound momentum. However, the 4-hour chart shows that the price is still in a descending channel, with EMA7 and EMA30 showing a bearish arrangement, and EMA120 forming resistance at a high level, indicating an overall bearish trend.
• Ethereum: The price fluctuates in the range of $1,750-$1,850, with $1,750 being the five-year low support. The hourly chart shows increased trading volume and an RSI divergence at the bottom, indicating a short-term oversold rebound demand. However, if the ETH/BTC exchange rate falls below 0.0215, it may trigger a sell-off of altcoins.
I. Market Structure and Technical Signals
• Bitcoin: The current price is fluctuating around $81,000-$83,500. The MACD's DIF and DEA lines on the daily chart have formed a golden cross at a low level, and the RSI has rebounded to the neutral area of 50, indicating increased short-term rebound momentum. However, the 4-hour chart shows that the price is still in a descending channel, with EMA7 and EMA30 showing a bearish arrangement, and EMA120 forming resistance at a high level, indicating an overall bearish trend.
• Ethereum: The price fluctuates in the range of $1,750-$1,850, with $1,750 being the five-year low support. The hourly chart shows increased trading volume and an RSI divergence at the bottom, indicating a short-term oversold rebound demand. However, if the ETH/BTC exchange rate falls below 0.0215, it may trigger a sell-off of altcoins.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis and Operational Strategy as of March 31, 2025
1. Overall Trend Judgment
1. Market Structure and Technical Signals
• Bitcoin: Current price fluctuates around $82,000-$83,500, with the daily MA7 ($82,426) and MA30 ($82,557) forming a 'death cross', indicating a clear short arrangement in the short term; trading volume has increased but price has not broken through key resistance, showing increased divergence between bulls and bears.
• Ethereum: Price fluctuates in the range of $1,800-$1,880, MA7 and MA30 moving averages converge, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, MACD volume decreases and KDJ flattens downwards, short-term direction requires waiting for a breakout signal.
2. Key Breakouts and Risk Warnings
1. Market Structure and Technical Signals
• Bitcoin: Current price fluctuates around $82,000-$83,500, with the daily MA7 ($82,426) and MA30 ($82,557) forming a 'death cross', indicating a clear short arrangement in the short term; trading volume has increased but price has not broken through key resistance, showing increased divergence between bulls and bears.
• Ethereum: Price fluctuates in the range of $1,800-$1,880, MA7 and MA30 moving averages converge, the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, MACD volume decreases and KDJ flattens downwards, short-term direction requires waiting for a breakout signal.
2. Key Breakouts and Risk Warnings
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Bitcoin Market Analysis and Operational Strategy on March 28, 2025
One, Key support and resistance levels
1. Support level:
• 86,000-86,500 USD: Short-term psychological barrier and support from the middle Bollinger band, which has been tested multiple times recently without breaking; if it breaks, it may trigger technical selling pressure.
• 85,500-85,750 USD: Recent pullback low, resonating with CME futures prices, is a key defensive area for medium- to long-term bulls.
2. Resistance level:
• 88,000-88,500 USD: Current upper boundary of the oscillation range, technical resistance band formed by the upper Bollinger band and historical high point; a breakout requires volume support.
• 89,000-90,000 USD: Psychological barrier and historical peak area; breaking through will open up larger upside potential.
1. Support level:
• 86,000-86,500 USD: Short-term psychological barrier and support from the middle Bollinger band, which has been tested multiple times recently without breaking; if it breaks, it may trigger technical selling pressure.
• 85,500-85,750 USD: Recent pullback low, resonating with CME futures prices, is a key defensive area for medium- to long-term bulls.
2. Resistance level:
• 88,000-88,500 USD: Current upper boundary of the oscillation range, technical resistance band formed by the upper Bollinger band and historical high point; a breakout requires volume support.
• 89,000-90,000 USD: Psychological barrier and historical peak area; breaking through will open up larger upside potential.
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March 26, 2025 Bitcoin Market Analysis and Operational Strategies
One, Current Market Structure and Key Levels
1. Price Dynamics and Technical Patterns
Bitcoin rebounded to $88,500 after testing the support at $86,200 yesterday, then fell back. The current price is fluctuating around $87,000. The daily level shows that the price failed to effectively break the previous high, indicating insufficient bullish momentum, and short-term may continue to consolidate at high levels.
· Support Level: $86,000-$86,500 (Bollinger band midline on the hourly chart, short-term strength and weakness boundary)
· Resistance Level: $88,500-$89,000 (previous high pressure area, upper Bollinger band on the daily chart)
2. Technical Indicator Signals
· Daily level: MACD bullish momentum bar is contracting, RSI (56) is in the neutral zone, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market.
1. Price Dynamics and Technical Patterns
Bitcoin rebounded to $88,500 after testing the support at $86,200 yesterday, then fell back. The current price is fluctuating around $87,000. The daily level shows that the price failed to effectively break the previous high, indicating insufficient bullish momentum, and short-term may continue to consolidate at high levels.
· Support Level: $86,000-$86,500 (Bollinger band midline on the hourly chart, short-term strength and weakness boundary)
· Resistance Level: $88,500-$89,000 (previous high pressure area, upper Bollinger band on the daily chart)
2. Technical Indicator Signals
· Daily level: MACD bullish momentum bar is contracting, RSI (56) is in the neutral zone, indicating a lack of clear direction in the market.
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Latest Market Analysis and Operational Strategies for Bitcoin and Ethereum on March 25, 2025
1. Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
1. Current Price and Key Levels
Bitcoin's price oscillated between $87,000 and $88,750 this morning, hitting a low of $87,010 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement support) and rebounding to a high of $88,752, but failed to break through the key resistance level of $89,000. The current price remains above the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating bulls still dominate, but shrinking trading volume suggests reduced momentum for chasing.
· Support Level: $86,500-87,000 (short-term dividing line between strength and weakness)
· Resistance Level: $89,000 (breaking through may initiate a new upward cycle), $90,000 (psychological level)
1. Current Price and Key Levels
Bitcoin's price oscillated between $87,000 and $88,750 this morning, hitting a low of $87,010 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement support) and rebounding to a high of $88,752, but failed to break through the key resistance level of $89,000. The current price remains above the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating bulls still dominate, but shrinking trading volume suggests reduced momentum for chasing.
· Support Level: $86,500-87,000 (short-term dividing line between strength and weakness)
· Resistance Level: $89,000 (breaking through may initiate a new upward cycle), $90,000 (psychological level)
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【Bitcoin Market: Fluctuating Upward, Challenging Key Levels】
The curtain on the new week has already risen. After a weekend of fluctuations and consolidation, the Bitcoin market has now steadily risen, showing strong performance, with the overall trend exhibiting a fluctuating upward pattern. In the morning, Bitcoin began its journey from a low of 84719, and then steadily rose, with bullish forces still firmly in control. As of now, the price is testing the resistance level around 86500. From the morning's pattern analysis, the price still has space to continue to rise and test the previous high at around 87500. This key level not only served as a support level during the previous breakout but is also a critical defensive area for the bulls. If it can successfully stabilize above this support level during the pullback, the market is likely to maintain an upward trend.
【Ethereum Market: Fluctuating After a Rebound, Focus on Resistance Break】
The trend in the Ethereum market is quite similar. Ethereum rebounded strongly from the support level of 1979, reaching a high of around 2020. However, due to a weakening buying momentum in the market, Ethereum has not been able to achieve further breakthroughs and instead entered a relatively stable range of fluctuations. Although the bulls are striving to push the price upward, the price has remained hovering around the middle band and has not released strong signals for a rise. Looking ahead, if it cannot firmly stand above the middle band, the market is likely to operate in a wide fluctuation pattern in the short term. In the 4-hour chart, the short cycle shows a strong bullish trend, with consecutive bullish candlesticks pushing the price to break through the upper band again. In the future, pay close attention to the resistance situation around the previous area of 2065. If it cannot effectively break through upward, consider adopting a short strategy; if it can successfully break upward, then it would be advisable to go long.
The curtain on the new week has already risen. After a weekend of fluctuations and consolidation, the Bitcoin market has now steadily risen, showing strong performance, with the overall trend exhibiting a fluctuating upward pattern. In the morning, Bitcoin began its journey from a low of 84719, and then steadily rose, with bullish forces still firmly in control. As of now, the price is testing the resistance level around 86500. From the morning's pattern analysis, the price still has space to continue to rise and test the previous high at around 87500. This key level not only served as a support level during the previous breakout but is also a critical defensive area for the bulls. If it can successfully stabilize above this support level during the pullback, the market is likely to maintain an upward trend.
【Ethereum Market: Fluctuating After a Rebound, Focus on Resistance Break】
The trend in the Ethereum market is quite similar. Ethereum rebounded strongly from the support level of 1979, reaching a high of around 2020. However, due to a weakening buying momentum in the market, Ethereum has not been able to achieve further breakthroughs and instead entered a relatively stable range of fluctuations. Although the bulls are striving to push the price upward, the price has remained hovering around the middle band and has not released strong signals for a rise. Looking ahead, if it cannot firmly stand above the middle band, the market is likely to operate in a wide fluctuation pattern in the short term. In the 4-hour chart, the short cycle shows a strong bullish trend, with consecutive bullish candlesticks pushing the price to break through the upper band again. In the future, pay close attention to the resistance situation around the previous area of 2065. If it cannot effectively break through upward, consider adopting a short strategy; if it can successfully break upward, then it would be advisable to go long.
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2025.3.19 Disordered fluctuations of BTC, daily volatility significantly narrowing, unilateral expectations repeatedly failing, is it time to bottom fish in the short term?
Market Overview
Before the Federal Reserve's decision, technology giants dragged down U.S. stocks, halting two consecutive days of gains for the three major U.S. stock indices. The Nasdaq fell nearly 2%, and the S&P dropped over 1%. Tesla fell over 5%, and Nvidia's new product launch still saw a decline of over 3%.
The China concept index fell back. Xiaomi's financial report was impressive, and its ADR hit a new high. Xiaopeng Motors had a positive financial report but fell nearly 8%, while NIO rose over 3%. Alibaba fell over 3%. The offshore renminbi fell more than a hundred points during trading, breaking below 7.23.
The German parliament passed a large-scale fiscal expenditure bill, with German stocks rising nearly 1%, and defense stock ThyssenKrupp rising nearly 13%; the euro reached a five-month high, pushing the dollar index to a five-month low.
Before the Federal Reserve's decision, technology giants dragged down U.S. stocks, halting two consecutive days of gains for the three major U.S. stock indices. The Nasdaq fell nearly 2%, and the S&P dropped over 1%. Tesla fell over 5%, and Nvidia's new product launch still saw a decline of over 3%.
The China concept index fell back. Xiaomi's financial report was impressive, and its ADR hit a new high. Xiaopeng Motors had a positive financial report but fell nearly 8%, while NIO rose over 3%. Alibaba fell over 3%. The offshore renminbi fell more than a hundred points during trading, breaking below 7.23.
The German parliament passed a large-scale fiscal expenditure bill, with German stocks rising nearly 1%, and defense stock ThyssenKrupp rising nearly 13%; the euro reached a five-month high, pushing the dollar index to a five-month low.
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Latest Developments and Market Analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market on March 10, 2025
I. Market Overview
1. Bitcoin Leads Market Decline
· Bitcoin price briefly fell below $80,000 today, hitting a low of $80,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 6%, down about 9% from the peak before the White House summit on March 7 ($92,000).
· The total liquidation amount across the network reached $583 million, with over 210,000 people liquidated; the largest single liquidation occurred in Binance's BTC contract (valued at $32.0875 million).
2. Mainstream Tokens Decline
· Ethereum (ETH) fell over 8%, currently priced at $2,040, failing to break through the resistance range of $2,380-$2,400;
· Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) both fell over 10%, while Solana (SOL) dropped 7%.
1. Bitcoin Leads Market Decline
· Bitcoin price briefly fell below $80,000 today, hitting a low of $80,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 6%, down about 9% from the peak before the White House summit on March 7 ($92,000).
· The total liquidation amount across the network reached $583 million, with over 210,000 people liquidated; the largest single liquidation occurred in Binance's BTC contract (valued at $32.0875 million).
2. Mainstream Tokens Decline
· Ethereum (ETH) fell over 8%, currently priced at $2,040, failing to break through the resistance range of $2,380-$2,400;
· Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) both fell over 10%, while Solana (SOL) dropped 7%.
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Trading Insights
1. If the market crashes and the coins in your hand don't drop much, it indicates that there are market makers supporting the price. Hold onto such coins, there will definitely be profits later! 2. New traders, please remember to understand macro information. For short-term trading, look at the 5-day moving average; if the price is above it, hold on, and if it breaks below, run quickly. For medium-term, watch the 20-day moving average, the same principle applies. Don't get caught up in fancy strategies; once you've identified a target, act decisively! 3. If you've bought a coin that hasn't moved for three days, quickly switch to the next one. If you buy and it drops, and you lose 5%, don't hesitate; cut your losses immediately! 4. If a coin has plummeted from its peak and has been down for nine days, it's been oversold; a rebound is imminent, so get in decisively! 5. When trading, you need to chase the leaders. The one that rises the most is the leader, and it's also the one that resists declines best. Don't be afraid to buy just because the price is high, and don't catch falling knives just because the price has dropped; chase the leaders regardless of price fluctuations! 6. Stop thinking about bottom fishing. Falling coins are like jumping off a building; they have no bottom. If it’s time to cut losses, then cut them. Following the trend is key. Buying isn't about getting the lowest price, but about timing! 7. Don’t get cocky just because you’ve made some money; it's easy to make a profit once, but the hard part is making money every day. After each profit, reflect on whether it was your skill or just luck. Developing your own trading strategy is the real key! 8. When you’re unsure, stay in cash; it’s not shameful to be in cash, but losing money is. Remember, you’re here to preserve your capital, not to be a gambling god! Trading is not about speed; it’s about success rate and risk-to-reward ratio!
1. If the market crashes and the coins in your hand don't drop much, it indicates that there are market makers supporting the price. Hold onto such coins, there will definitely be profits later! 2. New traders, please remember to understand macro information. For short-term trading, look at the 5-day moving average; if the price is above it, hold on, and if it breaks below, run quickly. For medium-term, watch the 20-day moving average, the same principle applies. Don't get caught up in fancy strategies; once you've identified a target, act decisively! 3. If you've bought a coin that hasn't moved for three days, quickly switch to the next one. If you buy and it drops, and you lose 5%, don't hesitate; cut your losses immediately! 4. If a coin has plummeted from its peak and has been down for nine days, it's been oversold; a rebound is imminent, so get in decisively! 5. When trading, you need to chase the leaders. The one that rises the most is the leader, and it's also the one that resists declines best. Don't be afraid to buy just because the price is high, and don't catch falling knives just because the price has dropped; chase the leaders regardless of price fluctuations! 6. Stop thinking about bottom fishing. Falling coins are like jumping off a building; they have no bottom. If it’s time to cut losses, then cut them. Following the trend is key. Buying isn't about getting the lowest price, but about timing! 7. Don’t get cocky just because you’ve made some money; it's easy to make a profit once, but the hard part is making money every day. After each profit, reflect on whether it was your skill or just luck. Developing your own trading strategy is the real key! 8. When you’re unsure, stay in cash; it’s not shameful to be in cash, but losing money is. Remember, you’re here to preserve your capital, not to be a gambling god! Trading is not about speed; it’s about success rate and risk-to-reward ratio!
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From the daily chart, Bitcoin's market surged and washed yesterday and collected a green K-line. The price pierced the daily MA30/60-day moving average and then fell back and fell below the daily MA5/10-day moving average again. The daily support focuses on the MA120-day moving average, which is 9.4. From the 4-hour chart, the price yesterday tested the MA256-day moving average, which is 9.95, and then quickly fell back. The current price fell and rebounded to the MA30-day moving average and fluctuated. Pay attention to whether the price can break through and stabilize above 9.66. If it stabilizes, the unilateral decline will end. Otherwise, it will continue to test the 9.4 low point downward.
From the daily chart, Ethereum also collected a green K-line yesterday, and the price came to the previous high of 2850 pressure again. This line is the daily MA30-day moving average pressure level; from the 4-hour chart, it tested the MA120-day moving average upward and failed. The current key pressure level is 2700. Pay attention to whether it can break through and stabilize within the day.
Lunchtime operation ideas (writing time: 14:30):
BTC: short light position at 9.7, short position at 9.75, target at 9.6/9.55; long position at 9.45/9.5 below, target at 9.6/9.7
ETH: short light position at 2710, short position at 2740, target at 2660/2630; long position at 2600/2550 below, target at 2660/2700
From the daily chart, Ethereum also collected a green K-line yesterday, and the price came to the previous high of 2850 pressure again. This line is the daily MA30-day moving average pressure level; from the 4-hour chart, it tested the MA120-day moving average upward and failed. The current key pressure level is 2700. Pay attention to whether it can break through and stabilize within the day.
Lunchtime operation ideas (writing time: 14:30):
BTC: short light position at 9.7, short position at 9.75, target at 9.6/9.55; long position at 9.45/9.5 below, target at 9.6/9.7
ETH: short light position at 2710, short position at 2740, target at 2660/2630; long position at 2600/2550 below, target at 2660/2700
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2025.2.19 Market Analysis
BTC:
From the daily chart, the big coin's downward fluctuation range has not been broken. The support level after the previous rise from 88909 to 110000 is around 93500. After the first wave of decline, it continued to fluctuate without a rebound. It is now testing the support again, and the support below is still valid. In trading, one can consider short-term rebounds, observing the defense of the support. If there is a rebound, pay attention to the situation of breaking the high point of 99500 effectively. As a reference point, buy around 95000, set a stop loss at the recent low of 93300, and target 98500-99000. Seize the opportunity to enter.
ETH:
From the daily chart, Ethereum has fared well this time, without a deep decline. The decline hasn't even reached the support level of 2560. Overall, Ethereum is still in a state of fluctuation; as long as the range is not broken, there won't be significant ups and downs in the market. In trading, one should also prepare for low buys and high shorts. Pay attention to the bottom support around 2560. If Bitcoin rebounds, Ethereum will follow. Trading strategy: go long around 2600, stop loss at 2520, and target around 2850. Further decisions should be made based on the situation after breaking through above.
BTC:
From the daily chart, the big coin's downward fluctuation range has not been broken. The support level after the previous rise from 88909 to 110000 is around 93500. After the first wave of decline, it continued to fluctuate without a rebound. It is now testing the support again, and the support below is still valid. In trading, one can consider short-term rebounds, observing the defense of the support. If there is a rebound, pay attention to the situation of breaking the high point of 99500 effectively. As a reference point, buy around 95000, set a stop loss at the recent low of 93300, and target 98500-99000. Seize the opportunity to enter.
ETH:
From the daily chart, Ethereum has fared well this time, without a deep decline. The decline hasn't even reached the support level of 2560. Overall, Ethereum is still in a state of fluctuation; as long as the range is not broken, there won't be significant ups and downs in the market. In trading, one should also prepare for low buys and high shorts. Pay attention to the bottom support around 2560. If Bitcoin rebounds, Ethereum will follow. Trading strategy: go long around 2600, stop loss at 2520, and target around 2850. Further decisions should be made based on the situation after breaking through above.
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