April 5, 2025 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Dynamics and Future Outlook

I. Market Status After the Policy Shock

1. Price Recovery and Liquidity Restoration

Since the Trump administration announced the "34% tariff policy on China" on April 2, which caused Bitcoin to plummet to $76,000-$77,000, the market has gradually digested the policy risk. As of April 5, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded to a range of $81,000-$83,500, while Ethereum has stabilized near $1,750-$1,850, indicating that short-term panic selling has temporarily eased.

• On-chain Data: Bitcoin short-term holder cost support is concentrated at $80,000-$82,000. On-chain transaction volume in this area increased by 40% compared to the previous day, indicating that some bottom-fishing funds have entered the market.

2. Divergence of Institutional and Retail Investor Behavior

• Institutional Side: Bitcoin spot ETFs such as BlackRock saw a net inflow of $221 million in a single day, and Tether increased its BTC holdings by $700 million in Q1, indicating long-term funds buying on dips.

• Retail Side: Altcoin market funds saw a stampede-like outflow due to adjustments in exchange leverage rules, with some turning to BTC/ETH for safe haven. However, contract open interest has decreased by 35% from its peak, and leverage risk has been somewhat mitigated.

II. Key Technical Signals and Bull-Bear Game

1. Bitcoin Core Volatility Range

• Support Level: Short-term focus on $82,500-$83,000 (4-hour EMA30 + concentrated chip area). If it is lost, it may explore the psychological threshold of $80,000.

• Resistance Level: $86,000-$88,000 is a strong pressure area (January downtrend line + trapped selling pressure). A breakout requires daily trading volume to increase to over $30 billion.

2. Ethereum Technical Fix Demand

• Support Level: $1,760-$1,780 (daily level support + whale order area). A break below this level may trigger an on-chain liquidation wave.

• Resistance Level: $1,900-$1,930 (20-day moving average + DeFi staking unlock pressure). A firm hold may initiate a rebound to $2,000.

3. Indicator Divergence Signals

• MACD Daily Chart: Bitcoin DIF and DEA formed a golden cross below the zero axis, but the histogram volume is only 30% of the previous rebound, posing a "weak rebound" risk.

• ETH/BTC Exchange Rate: Currently at 0.0213, close to a five-year low. A break below 0.021 may trigger a systemic sell-off in altcoins.

III. Funding Dynamics and Market Sentiment

1. Main Funds Flow

• Stablecoin Injections: USDC daily minting volume surged by $1.2 billion, and the USDT market value exceeded $110 billion, providing potential buying support for the market.

• Whale Movements: Ethereum whales placed orders for 21,958 ETH (worth approximately $80.9 million) at $1,894, with high-leverage long positions reaching $152 million, betting on a short-term rebound.

2. Sentiment Indicator Recovery

• Fear & Greed Index: Recovered from 20 (Extreme Fear) on April 2nd to 35 (Fear), but still below the neutral threshold.

• Options Market: Bitcoin put option premium has dropped to -8%, indicating weakened demand for short hedging.

IV. Risk Warning and Operational Strategy

1. Short-term Risk Events

• Macro Disruptions: US CPI data released on April 10 (expected 3.1% YoY). If it exceeds expectations, it may rekindle concerns about interest rate hikes.

• On-chain Liquidation Threshold: If Bitcoin falls below $80,000, it will trigger the forced liquidation of approximately 24,000 BTC (worth $1.9 billion) in long positions.

2. Operation Suggestion

• Bitcoin:

◦ Long positions: Lightly test long positions at $82,000-$83,000, stop loss at $80,500, target $85,000-$86,000.

◦ Short positions: Try shorting in batches at $84,300-$85,000, stop loss at $86,500, target $81,500-$80,000.

• Ethereum:

◦ Breakout Strategy: Buy on retest after holding firm at $1,880, target $1,920-$2,000; exit and observe if it breaks below $1,750.

V. Summary

The current market is in a volatile recovery phase after the policy shock. The core volatility range for Bitcoin is $80,000-$86,000, and for Ethereum, it is $1,750-$1,930. Operationally, it is recommended to mainly sell high and buy low, cautiously follow breakthroughs, and focus on preventing volatility spikes before and after the CPI data. Long-term investors can pay attention to institutional bottom-fishing opportunities below $78,000 for Bitcoin (MicroStrategy's cost area).