I. Market Overview

1. Bitcoin Leads Market Decline

· Bitcoin price briefly fell below $80,000 today, hitting a low of $80,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 6%, down about 9% from the peak before the White House summit on March 7 ($92,000).

· The total liquidation amount across the network reached $583 million, with over 210,000 people liquidated; the largest single liquidation occurred in Binance's BTC contract (valued at $32.0875 million).

2. Mainstream Tokens Decline

· Ethereum (ETH) fell over 8%, currently priced at $2,040, failing to break through the resistance range of $2,380-$2,400;

· Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) both fell over 10%, while Solana (SOL) dropped 7%.

3. Counter-Trend Assets

· Ethena (ENA) rose 15%, driven by the potential of the DeFi ecosystem;

· Polygon (MATIC) sees trading volume nearing the $100 billion milestone due to the 2.0 upgrade, enhancing token utility.

II. Policy and Regulatory Dynamics

1. U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Sparks Controversy

· The Trump administration announced the establishment of a strategic reserve based on 200,000 seized BTC, but did not mention any plans for additional purchases, leading to market disappointment regarding the strength of the policy and increased selling pressure.

· The legislative framework for stablecoins is planned to be released before August, with USDT and USDC potentially becoming tools for the internationalization of the dollar.

2. Japanese Regulatory Easing

· Japan plans to classify cryptocurrencies as a 'new asset class', removing them from the securities regulatory framework in order to attract institutional capital; the policy may be implemented by the end of March.

3. Tariff Risks Heat Up

· The U.S. policy of imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports will take effect on March 12, with tariffs on Canadian dairy products and lumber implemented in April; trade disputes may suppress risk asset performance.

III. On-Chain Anomalies and Hot Events

1. Dark Web Fund Transfer Doubts

· Wallets related to the 2016 dark web market transferred $450 million in BTC to new addresses, raising speculation about government seizures or early investor cash-outs.

2. Exchange Dynamics

· Binance's community governance mechanism and new coin mining activities are gaining traction, and platform tokens are receiving short-term attention from retail investors;

· Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) revised its promotional language, downplaying the 'largest fund' label.

IV. Trends in Institutions and Capital

1. Continued Outflows from ETF Funds

· The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with movements from institutions like BlackRock becoming key signals for market rebounds.

2. Traditional Institutions Accelerate Positioning

· JPMorgan, Bank of America, and others are exploring crypto asset custody services, with compliance processes advancing.

V. Technical Analysis and Operational Recommendations

1. Key Levels for Bitcoin

· Support Level: $78,200 (if breached, may trigger larger-scale selling);

· Resistance Level: $83,254-$86,380 (Retracement Pressure Zone).

2. Ethereum Technical Analysis

· Support Level: $1,968-$1,872, Resistance Level: $2,080-$2,171.

3. Operational Strategies

· Short-term: Watch the effectiveness of Bitcoin's support at $78,200; if broken, stop-loss may be needed; pay attention to the CPI data on March 12 and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on the 15th;

· Long-term: Accumulate core assets (BTC, ETH) and compliant beneficiaries (stablecoins, ETF-related assets) at low prices, focusing on Layer 2 and AI + blockchain sectors.

VI. Market Outlook

· Short-term Risks: Federal Reserve policies, tariff implementations, and market sentiment fluctuations may exacerbate market volatility;

· Long-term Potential: Institutions predict that the Bitcoin halving cycle and policy dividends may drive prices up to $120,000 in Q1 2025, with Ethereum targeting $6,000;

· Warning Signals: Overheated speculation in meme coins and Bitcoin's market cap dropping below 40% may signal the end of the rally.

Summary: The current market is in a high volatility phase, requiring a focus on risk control, with flexible adjustments to positions in conjunction with policies and macro events. Long-term investors may focus on technological upgrade sectors and institutional capital trends, while short-term traders need to closely monitor key support levels and risk events.