1. Bitcoin (BTC) Market Analysis
1. Current Price and Key Levels
Bitcoin's price oscillated between $87,000 and $88,750 this morning, hitting a low of $87,010 (Fibonacci 0.618 retracement support) and rebounding to a high of $88,752, but failed to break through the key resistance level of $89,000. The current price remains above the mid-band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating bulls still dominate, but shrinking trading volume suggests reduced momentum for chasing.
· Support Level: $86,500-87,000 (short-term dividing line between strength and weakness)
· Resistance Level: $89,000 (breaking through may initiate a new upward cycle), $90,000 (psychological level)
2. Technical Signals and Trend Judgments
· Bollinger Bands: The daily level continues to narrow, with the market in the $83,500-88,000 consolidation phase; a breakout requires volume confirmation.
· MACD and RSI: The 4-hour MACD continues to expand, but the fast and slow lines have not crossed above the zero line; RSI fluctuates around 50, indicating a risk of technical pullback.
· Pattern Characteristics: The 4-hour level shows an ascending channel pattern; a breakout above $89,000 may initiate a new wave of increases.
3. Operational Strategies
· Bullish Opportunity:
· Aggressive: Build positions in batches on a pullback to the $86,500-87,500 zone, targeting $88,500-89,000, with a stop-loss at $86,000.
· Conservative: After breaking through $89,000, lightly enter long positions on a pullback to $87,500, targeting $90,000-92,000.
· Bearish Defense:
· Establish short positions in the $87,500-89,000 resistance area, targeting $85,500-84,600.
· A drop below $85,500 could lead to short-term short positions, targeting $83,500.
2. Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis
1. Price Dynamics and Key Intervals
Ethereum rebounded from a low of $1,966 to $2,104 this morning, then fell back to oscillate around $2,070. Currently, attention needs to be paid to whether it can stabilize above $2,080 to confirm the continuation of the bulls.
· Support Level: $2,065-2,070 (short-term dividing line between strength and weakness), $1,950 (daily Bollinger mid-band)
· Resistance Level: $2,128-2,150 (technical resistance zone), $2,200 (psychological level)
2. Technical Signals and Market Momentum
· Bollinger Bands: The 4-hour level broke through the upper band and then fell back; need to observe if it can close above $2,080.
· MACD and RSI: The daily level fast and slow lines are in close proximity, indicating insufficient momentum; RSI is close to the overbought zone (68), so beware of pullback risks.
· Capital Movement: Exchange ETH reserves have dropped to a historic low, but watch for whether the main players are offloading at high positions in the short term.
3. Operational Strategies
· Bullish Opportunity:
· Lightly enter long positions after stabilizing above $2,080, targeting $2,128-2,150, with a stop-loss at $1,950.
· Build positions in batches on a pullback to the $1,980-2,000 zone, betting on a daily level rebound.
· Bearish Defense:
· Lightly short in the $2,128-2,150 resistance zone, targeting $2,000-1,980.
· A drop below $1,980 can lead to short positions, targeting $1,950.
3. Market Hotspots and Risk Alerts
1. Policy and Capital Trends
· Trump announced that Bitcoin will be included in the U.S. strategic reserves and supports stablecoin legislation, boosting market sentiment.
· MicroStrategy increased its holdings by 6,911 BTC, with a total holding exceeding 506,000 BTC, valued at $33.7 billion.
2. Short-term Risk Events
· False breakout risk: If Bitcoin fails to stabilize above $89,000, it may pull back to the $83,500 support.
· Leverage liquidation pressure: The entire network's contracts faced $340 million in liquidations in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for over 60%, so extreme volatility should be monitored.
3. Position Management Recommendations
· Control single positions to within 5% of total capital, build positions in batches, and strictly set stop-losses (recommended 1%-2% fluctuation).
· Avoid heavy speculation on high-volatility assets (such as Meme coins), prioritize compliant targets (such as BTC, ETH spot ETFs).
Summary: Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are at a critical resistance breakout window; attention needs to be paid to volume cooperation and policy catalysts. The operation should mainly focus on range thinking, follow the trend after a breakthrough, and set stop-losses strictly. Market sentiment is buoyed by Trump’s policies and institutional accumulation, but beware of false breakouts and leverage liquidation risks.
